A Slow Saturday Night

I’m filling in on the Saturday night shift.  So I’ve updated some files and done a few other nerdy things.  One would include these two charts of Portland temps.

Our summer temperature…that’s June-July-August since 1941:

PDX_SummerTemp

The 1950s sure were chilly, makes 2010-2011 seem mild…

Our August temps, definitely a warm one this year, like last year:

PDX_AugustTemps

 

I don’t have any other great knowledge to add.  Bumped up temps for midweek since all models now show a thermal trough west of the Cascades Tuesday and Wednesday.  That plus 850mb temps around +21 to +22 should push us a little above 90 degrees.  Luckily nights will be cooler than we have seen earlier in the summer with the hot weather.

Speaking of nights, last night’s 56 degree temp was the coolest night around here in about 6 weeks!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to A Slow Saturday Night

  1. David B. says:

    Just by the odds, there probably _will_ be some sticking snow in both Seattle and Portland this winter, simply because records indicate that there usually is.

    It may be but a dusting that melts in a matter of hours, but it typically _does_ happen.

  2. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Any one see an aircraft carrier around here?

  3. WEATHERDAN says:

    Salem might hit 20 days over 90 for the summer after all. Currently we stand at 16 with 4 or 5 days this week predicted to be at or above 90. With the combination of all the warm days we have had this summer, and the many very warm nights, this will be the warmest summer in Salem’s recorded history. Records go back to 1892.The previous record warm summer was 1967. And in fact 1967 had warmer days than 2013. But due to the fact that Salem/Keizer had a population of 69,000 in 1967 as opposed to 196,000 now, our nights were quite a bit cooler in the summers back then. In 1967 only 45 nights in the June to August time frame were 50 degrees or warmer. Only 1 night was 60 degrees or warmer. And that lone night was exactly 60. This year 79 of the 92 nights between June and August were above 50. That included 61 of the 62 nights in July and August. Over 20 nights have stayed at or above 60 degrees this year.The warmest night night so far in 2013 has been 66 degrees. As far as this winter goes dry winters here in The Willamette Valley tend to be mild above and cold below. A lot of foggy days with temperature inversions. Usually these winters also tend to have at least one Arctic outbreak. We have been extremely dry since late spring of 2012 with one exception. The period from October 12-December 26 2012 was very wet. Overall though the last 18 months have been very dry. However La Nada or ENSO Neutral years tend to be the winters when we have the coldest and snowiest winters. Pete parsons over at the Department of Agriculture has picked 1968 as the closest analog year to this one. 1968-1969 just happens to be the coldest and snowiest year in Salem. I’m not saying that that will happen this winter. But it bears watching.The dew-point in Salem at 3:00 PM is 62. An aftereffect of that tremendous thunderstorm last week I think. I am still amazed at just how powerful the storm was. Multiple lightning strikes at the same time. And the rain was so heavy that it quickly overwhelmed the storm drains and flooded many intersections. Now maybe we might see some convective activity next Sunday or Monday. Could we see three big thunderstorms in Salem in one summer. We shall see. Peace.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Doesn’t Pete always pick 1968-69 as his analog year? That’s his fantasy come true!

    • kdi says:

      I was going to say, the 1 year a couple years back when I went to the big ams annual pre winter meeting I believe Pete had 1968 as his model. Too funny. Anyway, I hope he is right this time.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      That’s the beauty of it Mark. Keep picking it and some day it will come true. Actually I don’t recall him using that year before. But I might be wrong. Peace.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      You forgot to mention that several power outages took out traffic lights in key intersections backing up traffic.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Has this really been SLE’s warmest summer on record? I have trouble believing that…

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      If you count just the daytime then no it has not. But if you average in the maximum and the minimum it has. This year has really been warm overnight. The days have been warm but not super hot. But when you add in the very warm overnight temps we do edge out 1967. In 1967 we had only one night above 60. This year it’s approaching 30 nights. Thus the perception vs. the reality.

  4. paulbeugene says:

    I hope Euro monthly forecast is wrong…don’t need a drier than normal winter (it has Nov as only wet month).
    CFSv2 seasonal/monthly also has us rather dry as well.
    With la nada or at worst a weak El Niño I think there is not much reason to believe it will be all that dry.

    • David B. says:

      La Nada years, I believe, tend to be the ones with the best chances of significant lowland snow events. And PDX is waaaay overdue for one of those (not that the latter fact implies one is more likely this year, feed “monte carlo fallacy” into your search engine of choice).

  5. cgavic says:

    At 1, 100 ft sandy. Bright sun. No marine clouds. 64 degs.

  6. schmit44 says:

    9/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & EW3335 Jacksonvi(1390 ft)
    Low: 66 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 30 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    Beatty (83/34 ) (4320 ft )

  7. MasterNate says:

    I think they will be tweaking the 7 day. Models suggest it being toasty through Sunday before a good push off the ocean. Possibly our last summer heat wave of the season. Fine with me. I’m ready for cool crisp mornings and beautiful fall colors.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Just been tweaked at 4:15pm

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Boo! Let’s get on with fall already. I forgot what a nice chill in the air feels like.

    • Sifton says:

      “Boo”? Lol……oh please Josh, it’s only the first 3rd of Sept. for god’s sake! Maybe a nice drive up to Mt. Hood would jog your memory………

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      No it won’t. It will be in the 70s/80s there. Anyway, after this “heat wave” is over, me thinks it will be the last of anything resembling hot for a loooong time.

  8. longbeachrob says:

    Darn! My hard drive on the computer I keep track of the weather crapped out. Now I can’t find the original software for my Davis Weather Monitor II, and I really don’t want to buy a data logger again just to get the software. So, what software works with a Davis Weather Monitor II and will not cost an arm and a leg? Maybe it is time to switch what system I am using to another one.

    I thought I had the software backed up, but it wasn’t.

    Got to get this fixed before Oct 1st!

  9. JJ78259 says:

    Perfect thunder storm came right over us in San Antonio a few minutes ago. We could see the the thunder heads build south of the hill country where we live. Lightning thunder and drops of rain as big as silver dollars came in with it, great storm!

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    GLOBAL WARMING!! CHEMICAL WEATHER WARFARE!!

    Mkay, not really. Just joking 😉

    • BoringOregon says:

      Lol they say it’s, Global Warming. I would love to see the charts before 1940’s lol. And it’s kind of funny that they started to make weather charts for the war. ??

  11. schmit44 says:

    9/7/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:95 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 67 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:55 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 31 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (84/32 ) (5000 ft )

  12. W7ENK says:

    That’s interesting.

  13. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    It would be interesting to see similar charts for locations not affected by UHI. Maybe Eugene for instance. I’d imagine they haven’t seen such a dramatic rise.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      But But that might revel the truth of the Global Warming hype and then the big media will lose their big ratings. *sniff sniff*

      If the big media loses their big ratings the staff who work SO hard will lose their high paying jobs and live off of the streets or on government handouts!.

      We cannot allow that to happen at any cost!

    • paulbeugene says:

      I created similar graph for Corvallis, dating back to 1900. 10 year running average fro JJA temps rose from 63.4F in 1910 until 1942 when it reached 66.2F. It then dropped until 1960 bottoming out at 63.5F. It then rose until the 1990s, not exceeding 65.3F. It has been between 64.6 and 65.3 in past 15 years.
      The warmest JJA average temp was in 1958, just four years after 1954, which had coldest JJA temp.

    • ocpaul says:

      Paul
      your stats back up all that I’ve read too. Temps have been flat to cool for the past 15-16 years. Meanwhile, carbon levels have continued to rise. Again, observation trumps ‘theory’.

  14. BoringOregon says:

    Sure I do not mind the, heat makes me wan’t to go camping. In sure was a little humid late afternoon ?

  15. schmit44 says:

    ***SEPTEMBER HEATWAVE CONTEST FOR PORTLAND ***
    Guess the high/low temperature Monday through Friday for this upcoming work week at Portland airport. I will announce the winner Friday evening. Deadline to enter will be 2am Monday morning Sept 9th. Click the below link to enter.
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/SEPT2013_HEATWAVE/add.php

    • Lurkyloo says:

      What do we win, Schmitt? A trip to Hawaii in Feb?? A happy handshake? A “Live Outside the Dome” t-shirt? 🙂

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