Possible Thunderstorms Tonight

Monday, 9:45pm…

MarkThunder_MetroOutlook

Welcome back!  The weekend is over and once again we are in a setup with an upper level low spinning offshore.  It’s far enough away that we aren’t getting a marine push to give us cool and cloudy weather, but close enough to put us in a moist southerly flow overhead.  Models are strongly hinting that SOMEWHERE in Northwest Oregon or Southwest Washington we should see thunderstorms overnight.  There is a very weak disturbance off to our southwest, but no real obvious trigger on satellite imagery.  That said, this is very similar to what we saw last week when thunderstorms popped up in the overnight hours.  I totally missed out on those because no storms passed within 10 miles of my home and my window faces southeast.  Maybe tonight?  All 3 local mesoscale models: the UW WRF-GFS, MM5-NAM, and our RPM show something popping up by daybreak.   Our model shows the first storms developing soon after midnight, the MM5-NAM starts them over the Cascades by 1-2am, and the WRF-GFS gets things going between 2-4am.  Now remember that models don’t handle details with small weather features well, that includes thunderstorms of course.  That’s why I said SOMEWHERE over our area SOMEONE will see something later tonight.  Can’t give you much more detail than that, although I think whatever happens will likely be from Salem northward.

Looking farther ahead, this upper low moves inland on Thursday.  So once again Thursday appears to be the day this week where we see the wettest conditions.  If the timing is right I could see a severe weather episode east of the Cascades again.  Hopefully not right over Madras this time.  I was in Maupin this weekend and heard losses were in the millions from damage to crops and irrigation equipment with that severe thunderstorm last week.

Here’s the 12z ensemble chart from the ECMWF, showing the cooldown Thursday-Friday, then a big warmup next week:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Similar look on the 12z GFS chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Speaking of Maupin, I somehow stayed upright while rafting through Oak Springs Rapids on the Deschutes River.   Here’s a pic from Imperial River Company.  Hope they don’t mind that I borrowed it…free advertising.

MarkRaft

That’s me on the front left side.  My wife and daughter flipped out into the frothy maelstrom.  One made it to shore and the other back into the raft.  Good times on Labor Day Weekend!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

49 Responses to Possible Thunderstorms Tonight

  1. P.S.C.Z says:

    Repeat of last week intense Severe Thunderstorms where they almost issued tornado warning. It’s looking that way for Thursday what a crazy roller coaster this summer has been.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Quite the show last night! Almost 3 hours of varying degrees of flashing and booming, and only 0.10″ of rain which was just enough to make the outdoors smell nice! Woke me up at around 12:20am, had a couple strikes that sounded fairly close to the house. Lots of CC, only a handful of CG, maybe a 10:1 ratio? Thankfully nothing too near my antenna tower — taking a hit to that would be a tad over the top!

    Repeat performance on Wednesday night? I should stock up on sleep tonight then. Getting up and riding in to work was rough this morning. Gotta make my goal of 80% for the month!

    62 degrees and fog along the Springwater Corridor was a little bizzare, though.

  3. Rick says:

    This is my second post in this forum— ever—- We were trapped in that nasty storm near Madras last week. Lightening strikes every where, wind 60 to MPH — Had to pull over, could not see the road.

  4. paulbeugene says:

    I like the looks of the 6Z GFS in the long range with the first cold trough of the season in mid September…after all these 60 degree nights it would be nice to have some 35-45 temps. Looking forward to seeing if nocturnal storms late Wednesday night pan out.

  5. lilfoot123 says:

    Kelso Longview getting some th-storms! Finally some I hear & saw! I got woken up too!so happy!

  6. P.S.C.Z says:

    Great job Mark got one right.

  7. P.S.C.Z says:

    Storms really starting to break out now all over the place. Love it

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Must agree with Adam and Peter, YOU DA MAN, Mark!

  9. AdamInAumsville says:

    Mark nailed it!

  10. TStorm woke me up. Good call mark

  11. Momto4inOR says:

    So loud and scary in Tigard 😦

  12. 0.16″ from 2 quick moving cells the past hour.

  13. WestsideWes says:

    Sounds like it just passed over Hillsboro/Beaverton.

    I’m awake now.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1130 PM PDT MON SEP 2 2013

    UPDATE…REINTRODUCED SHOWERS TO THE VALLEY TONIGHT…WITH ISOLATED THUNDER NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND ALONG THE CASCADES IN THE
    NEAR TERM WHERE INSTABILITY IS BEING RECOGNIZED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW. GRIDS AVAILABLE SHORTLY. KMD

  15. steveofportland says:

    Getting thunder and lightening in SE Portland, though it may be really happening north of here.

  16. Chevelleman in Troutdale says:

    I’m seeing a lot of lightning but most of it is cloud to cloud.

  17. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Seeing lightning to the south and NW here in BG. Had a close strike that took out the lights for a bit. Also, 1.13″ rainfall rate per hour, but just 0.09″ so far.

  18. runrain says:

    Good thunder and lightning in Happy Valley. Some coming up the valley westside now too! Active!

  19. schmit44 says:

    9/2/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at Arlington( 449 ft) & JOHN DAY RIVER A(400 ft)
    Low: 73 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at Mary’s Peak(4137 ft)
    Low: 30 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (84/40 ) (4160 ft )
    Sand Creek (US 9 (77/33) (4525 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.67″ at DW5444 Heppner(2680ft)
    0.55″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.48″ at EW1076 Imbler(2736ft)

  20. Sifton says:

    Directly above n.e. clark county @ this moment. A few real good boomers & flashes as the rain has really picked up too…..

  21. BoringOregon says:

    Just saw a some white lightning and thunder to are east !!

  22. Seeing lightning and hearing thunder from the north here in Battle Ground.

  23. Cells are firing up quickly in Clark County.

    • Sifton says:

      Yeah, that came outta nowhere huh?! It went from a couple drops to full on rain in like 5 seconds!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      They’re bubbling up! Bring on the light show!

    • Sifton says:

      Wonder why the maps not picking up the 1-2 flashes in the last 10 min. or so?? Low rumbles very shortly there after. The 1st 1 I thought maybe was a jet, lol! WHOA, there was a good 1 just now!!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Wondered that myself, should be showing by now.

    • ThunderCloud - North Plains says:

      Could have something to do with cloud-to-ground vs cloud-cloud lightning? Just my uneducated guess of course.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      They are showing up now, but I think you’re right on with the initial reason, ThunderCloud. (I’m guessing too)

  24. Sifton says:

    Let me be the 1st to say; “HOORAY FOR THE BIG WARM UP!!!”

  25. AlexMaz says:

    Nice.. I just came back from a awesome day of rafting in maupin

  26. BoringOregon says:

    Come on thunder storms, that looks fun. I did that in high school !!

  27. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Front left side? Where’s the front!? Hahaah!

  28. Nsurf says:

    Looks like good times! I was camping just a little down 97 from you towards madras on the trout creek tributary to the deschutes. Awesome weekend over there! Have you ever been to the beaver tail campground down stream from oak springs? I love the rumble of the train going through there at night.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      We camped at Harpham Flat about 4 miles south of Maupin. Yep, 2 trains Friday night and 3 Saturday. Kids sleep through it…somehow

    • schmit44 says:

      I camped at Harpham before. Train woke me up too.

    • W7ENK says:

      Beaver Tail is a pretty sweet campsite. Last time I was there (to camp) — June 2008 — it was 115 degrees (measured) at 4pm when we arrived, and 109 degrees (measured) the next morning at 11am as we were heading back out. The river was a frigid 55 degrees (estimated), and the contrast was amazing! My buddy and I just stripped down and sat in the water under a tree until the sun dropped behind the canyon wall. I’m not one to complain about heat, but that was too much!

  29. Fun! My son is over there flyfishing for steelhead. He said the river is a lot cooler than previous years.

  30. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Looks pretty quiet out there, and NWS is pretty mum about any boomers.
    If any Albino Donkeys out there, bet they’re the miniature breed….

  31. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    I love thunderstorms and I love rafting! Bring it on!

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