Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast

(UPDATE: I was confused…this is the FARMERS ALMANAC, not the OLD FARMERS ALMANAC)  I like to post this once a year…for entertainment value only…

14winter

The forecast itself is utterly worthless; several studies have shown that.  I did my own on 3 winter forecasts from the late 1990s to 2000.  Temperature forecast for our area was about 50% correct and precipitation was 33%.  You’d be better off guessing.  Of course every once in awhile one of the forecasts will be correct, and someone will remember that for the rest of their life, telling me “it nailed the winter of 2009!!!”.

Here’s an interesting look at its accuracy from Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services:  http://ggweather.com/farmers/2007/index.htm

I really like how they claim to have some centuries old secret forecasting method…don’t you think they’d be rich by now and doing something other than publishing a paper almanac if that was the case?

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

51 Responses to Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter Forecast

  1. BoringOregon says:

    Oh man the rain is making it so muggy out, Wow !

  2. oldwxwatcher says:

    The latest 45-day “forecast” from (In)Accuweather shows Portland getting 5.1″ of rain in the first eleven days of October. What with their track record I should be able to count on having dry leaves to rake about then.

  3. Ron says:

    Well it may say we are going to have a dry and chilly winter but anyone including myself that lives in the Columbia River Gorge knows that if any moisture hits that cold air we will get snow.

  4. WEATHERDAN says:

    Hey Mark. If you liked the Farmers Almanac long range weather forecast, you will really love the Old Farmers Almanac long range forecast. Here it is. AUGUST 2013: temperature 64° (2° below avg.); precipitation 4″ (3″ above avg.); Aug 1-4: Sunny, hot; Aug 5-14: Rainy periods, cool; Aug 15-20: Rain, some heavy, cool; Aug 21-25: Scattered showers, cool north; sunny, hot south; Aug 26-31: Sunny, warm.

    SEPTEMBER 2013: temperature 59° (2° below avg.); precipitation 2.5″ (1″ above avg.); Sep 1-3: Sunny, cool; Sep 4-13: Rainy periods, cool; Sep 14-25: Sunny; cool north, warm south; Sep 26-30: Rain, then sunny, cool.
    Annual Weather Summary: November 2013 to October 2014

    Winter will be much snowier than normal, with frequent snows from mid-December through the first three weeks of January. Rainfall will be near normal, with temperatures below normal, on average, in the north and above in the south. The coldest periods will occur in mid- to late December, early to mid-January, and mid- to late January.

    April and May will be much warmer and slightly drier than normal.

    Summer will be warmer than normal, with the hottest periods in early to mid-June and mid-July. Rainfall will be below normal in the north, above in the south.

    September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal.
    Temperature and Precipitation November 2013 to October 2014
    Temperature and Precipitation This is for The Salem Oregon area in the Pacific Northwest region

  5. We go through this every year. The only TRUE predictor is the wooley worm. They are extremely accurate but very difficult to understand. 😉

    • W7ENK says:

      That’s unfortunate, because the last two years, our Wooly Bear Caterpillars have “indicated” a long, cold and snowy winter ahead. I found (dodged) quite a few last fall riding home from work in the afternoons along the Springwater Corridor between OMSI and Oaks Park, and many were almost entirely black, so I thought for sure…

      Well, we all know how well that worked out.

      Funny, the leading “expert” on Wooly Bears’ weather forecasting abilities just so happens to be… … … … TA-DA!! The ol’ Farmer’s Almanac!

      Imagine that. 😆

      http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-winter-weather-woolly-bear-caterpillars

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Aha! THAT must be their “centuries old secret forecasting method”.

  6. WEATHERDAN says:

    Come on Mark, don’t be shy ,tell us what you really feel. Oh by the way, this was the farmers almanac. The old farmers almanac which is also worthless for it’s weather forecasts comes out later. Peace

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Peace? Are u 59 or 15?

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      He’s 59. I’m pretty sure I saw WeatherDan, Boydo, and BoringLarry at the ’82 Dead show in Veneta. 😉

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha!!! He’s harping on WEATHERDAN for using the word “Peace.” het his favorite weather guru uses it on occasion… o_O

      Methinks Matty is somewhere around 5, based on his constant bullying toward others. Dude, do you not realize it’s generally a bad idea to cross a Freemason? I guess some people have to learn their lessons the hard way. :facepalm:

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Erik, I wasn’t speaking to u. But get a life already and get a girl or something. Funny how u have to nose in on business that’s not yours. Hope your at the winter weather meeting this year. I’d live to meet you. I’ll be there buddy

    • …sometimes we could use some of that Dead vibe around here…. 🙂

    • W7ENK says:

      lololololol

      Yup. Five.

      And no worries. If I’m there, you won’t see me comin’.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Cant wait Erik. Show up. I’ll leave it at that. Don’t be all keyboard and back it up.

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh, you can’t wait, huh?? Such a big skeawwy man you are, I’m shaking in my shoes!! :yawn:

      Ya know, you’re not the first person to threaten to kick my @$$ at that meeting. You know what happened to the last guy? His vertigo was so bad he decided to stay home and dink around on his computer all day. Oh, and he was placed on moderation for a month for making threats. Veiled or otherwise, you’re crossing the line, sweetheart.

      You’ll have to wait. I won’t be in town that weekend, so Stevie P. won’t have anyone there to take video this year. But, I’ll be sure to wave as I drive through Redmond on Friday morning. 😉

    • Erik,

      I wasn’t going to bother, but how you aren’t on moderation or banned is beyond me. It’s one year later and you haven’t changed one bit. You’re exactly the same with your snide, childish comments and provoking others. You obviously can’t go without talking about or mentioning me. This puzzles me.

      People can change, you know? …. I think you can.

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      I find it ironic how the word “peace” seems to have brought out the worst in some people here today.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Geez, you people are odd. Knock off the comments, threats, and stupid back and forth that just annoys everyone else that reads this. Back in late May (after the last time I banned some of you for two months), I just unblocked all previous IPs that I had banned. I thought just MAYBE people could behave. Apparently not.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      High Desert Mat comes off as more of a pain in the behind than some others on here. Most of his replies are… err well.. ya know.

      And I’m sure many of us have had differences with Rob including me, but I’m not going to rant about the past. This is a weather blog. Let’s just talk weather.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I really like that last thought, Timmy.
      Let’s go with it!

  7. Sandman, Aloha 300' says:

    How have to use the chains at least once this winter

  8. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like dramatically increased POPS!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    855 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

    BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL MODELS AGREE…WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. POPS WERE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ALSO ADDED TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE MODEST INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      245 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

      THE FRONT/TROUGH IS A BIT MORE DYNAMIC THAN USUAL SUMMER FRONTS…AND THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. DESPITE BEING SKINNY CAPE AND HAVING MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES…THE
      DYNAMICS ARE THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
      THAT FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BASED ON KSLE PW CLIMATOLOGY.

    • W7ENK says:

      DESPITE BEING SKINNY CAPE AND HAVING MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE DYNAMICS ARE THEREFORE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED…

      You Engrish FAIL!! Preeze try again.

      😆

    • runrain says:

      I really like when papoose really likes something.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Then you’ll really like this, runrain!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
      840 PM PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013

      WE HAVE QUITE THE SET UP. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST – NOTE THE AROUND 60 OR SO DEWPOINTS AND MUGGINESS OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW PLUS THE PLUME OF
      INCOMING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE – KUIL RAOB THIS EVENING HAD A LI OF ZERO AND KSLE RAOB -2. AND NOW DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT INTO
      THURSDAY EVENING FOR GOOD LIFT. THIS ALL POINTS TO SOME GOOD SHOWERS WITH HEALTHY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PLUS A GOOD CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THE CAPES RISE CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. CURRENT FORECAST OF RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD. SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION.

  9. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Don’t know why they have to insult old farmers that way!

  10. W7ENK says:

    Well, this gives me hope for the upcoming winter. If the Old Farmer’s Almanac says our winter is going to be mild and dry, there’s a better than 50% chance we’ll have an awesome winter filled with arctic air and frozen precip!! Especially considering that what they’re basically forecasting in their “Days of Shivery” article is an El Niño pattern, and there’s no El Niño to be found (maybe someone should let Big Dave Salesky know?) j/k, luv ya Dave! 😆

    As always, we’ll have to wait and see…

  11. MasterNate says:

    Good bathroom material.

  12. Greg Carstens says:

    Reading the Almanac is always good for any meteorologist or climatologist to get a good laugh especially when they need a break from daily normal grind Mark.

    • W7ENK says:

      Aug 26-31: Sunny, warm.

      Yup. Nailed it, indeed! o_O

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Nailed the 4″ of rain this month too. Haha

    • W7ENK says:

      I think they meant “point” 4?

      C’mon, give them credit, they were only off by ONE order of magnitude! It’s not like they’re sending a rocket to Mars…§

      :mrgreen:

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      No, they said 3″ above normal. Our average is 1″ if you round up. Morons.

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahahaha!!!! You actually think I read this garbage… that’s funny!

      So, I guess I’m a moron because I DIDN’T read the Farmer’s Almanac?

      My bad. I’ll do better next year and enlighten myself with their wisdom. Maybe then my weather prediction skills will sharpen to the level of yours?

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Dude, I was calling the forecasters for the Farmer’s Almanac morons, not you. That’s why I used the plural for moron.

    • W7ENK says:

      Got it.

      On edge, it’s been a long day.

      My bad.

      Peace. 🙂

  13. geo says:

    https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/08/27/old-farmers-almanac-winter-forecast/#comments This is the ” Old Farmers Almanac” winter weather summary ( Mark Nelsen has the ” Farmers Almanac).

  14. schmit44 says:

    Wet and frosty for Texas?

  15. geo says:

    What is the difference between biting cold and piercing cold?

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