Looks Like September (Weatherwise)

A busy day today at FOX12 since we not only put a fresh news studio on-air, but also switched the entire news operation to HD.  Hopefully I don’t look too old with the HD cameras.  As one professional told me “HD is great for video, sports, and wide shots, but is no friend to your face!”.

Anyway, we had some rain today!  .08″ at PDX brings the August total to….almost two tenths of an inch.  Don’t worry, there will be more.  We are clearly in a general weather pattern for the next 7-8 days that will produce below average temps and above normal rainfall.  The reason is an upper-level trough that lingers offshore through the week, then totally kicks inland over the Pacific Northwest during the Labor Day Weekend.  Here is the 500mb height anomaly from the 12z ECMWF for midweek.  Quite a deep low offshore for this time of  year:

m500za_f072_bg_NA

Then see what happens next week, models all imply some sort of ridging over the Pacific Northwest…the 00z GFS anomaly map for next Tuesday (AFTER Labor Day!)

m500za_f216_bg_NA

Now the 00z GEM (Canadian) shows the cool upper low over us all week, but, it IS the GEM, so I’ve ignored it.  For now…

The length and intensity of a  possible warm and dry spell after the 2nd of September is definitely up in the air.  Take a look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

a HUGE variety of solutions…from about average temps to a scorching early September heat wave.  Here’s the 00z GFS ensemble chart…

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Same thing, although not quite a disparity between solutions.  The main message is cool for most of the next 7 days, then a bit warmer AFTER the Labor Day Weekend.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

48 Responses to Looks Like September (Weatherwise)

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    FThe “Days of Shivery” are Back! Read Our 2014 Forecast!

    by Caleb Weatherbee | Sunday, August 25th, 2013 | From: Weather
    The “Days of Shivery” are Back! Read Our 2014 Forecast!

    This forecast is for the United States. For the Canadian forecast, click here.

    After the unusually warm and snowless winter of 2011–2012, many people questioned if winter could make a comeback. Well it did. Last winter was cold and especially snowy.

    So, what’s in store for this winter? The “Days of Shivery” are back! 
For 2013–2014, we are forecasting a winter that will experience below average temperatures for about two-thirds of the nation. A large area of below-normal temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to the Appalachians, north and east through New England. Coldest temperatures will be over the Northern Plains on east into the Great Lakes. Only for the Far West and the Southeast will there be a semblance of winter temperatures averaging close to normal, but only a few areas will enjoy many days where temperatures will average above normal.

    Precipitation-wise, the Southern Plains, Midwest, and Southeast will see above-normal conditions, while the rest of the country will average near normal. With a combination of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation the stage will be set for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Central and Northern New England to receive lots of snow. Farther south, where the thermometer will be vacillating above or below the freezing mark, Southern New England, Southeast New York, New Jersey, and down through the Mid-Atlantic region will be seeing either copious rains and/or snows.

    And yet, the Pacific Northwest (or is it “northwet?”) where indeed wet weather is almost a given during the winter months, the overall winter season could average out drier than normal.

    Significant snowfalls are forecast for parts of every zone. Over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, we are “red-flagging” the first ten days of February for possible heavy winter weather. More importantly, on February 2, Super Bowl XLVIII will be played at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey’s Meadowlands—the very first time a Super Bowl will be played outdoors in a typically cold weather environment. We are forecasting stormy weather for this, the biggest of sporting venues. But even if we are off by a day or two with the timing of copious wind, rain, and snow, we wish to stress that this particular part of the winter season will be particularly volatile and especially turbulent.

    And mid-March could bring a wave of storminess stretching almost from coast to coast, bringing a wide variety of precipitation types as well as strong and gusty winds.

    2014-USFA-Winter
    For your enjoyment, Peace

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Thanks! Except for November it was pretty dry last winter actually especially once early Spring set in.

      Hope we don’t have a repeat or we will be looking at moderate drought conditions if we aren’t already.

  2. vinnybob says:

    Started raining here in Cedar Hills a little after 8 and recorded .50 inches of precip. Bird bathes are all full.

  3. 0.25″ yesterday in Battle Ground, 0.02″ today. It’s dry out today, you’d never know it rain last night.

  4. schmit44 says:

    8/26/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:91 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & UNION(2708 ft)
    Low: 64 at JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 31 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    Burns Municipal (84/35 ) (4144 ft )
    Baker City Munic (88/39) (3373 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.33″ at YACHTS Yachats(82ft)
    1.08″ at PACCTY Pacific C(253ft)
    0.89″ at PACCTY-2 Pacific(28ft)
    0.69″ at TILLAMOOK(11ft)
    0.69″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    0.66″ at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128ft)

  5. paulbeugene says:

    Was surfing through the western weather forum and happened upon a post….someone mentioned how dry it has been in Eugene so far this calendar year. We have had only 9.83 inches from January through August. The previous record low precip for this period was 11.08 inches in 2001. Honorable mentions: 1944(12.51in), 1924 (11.3 in). I guess we really do need the rain down here.

    • 19.06″ for my place so far this year.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      2013 for Hillsboro was 4th driest through July with 12.77″, after 1985 (11.27″), 2001, & 1977.

      1985 is the driest calendar year on record for Hillsboro. I use my station data for 2001 as the Co-op data ended and the ASOS data started later in the year.

      Even with 6 straight days of rain here now, as of today, it is the 2nd driest first 8 months of the year following 1985, leaping over 1977 & 2001. I suspect by the end of the month that Hillsboro will be back around 4th place again.

      84 years of records going back to 1930.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Kind of weird that sweet home area would have close to 20″ and Eugene would have just over 11″. Someone’s data is off.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Not really all that weird Matt. Sweet home is up in the foothills of the Cascades at over 1,000 feet. Eugene is only 369 feet. More moisture gets squeezed out of the clouds the higher up you go. Even a few hundred feet can make a big difference.

    • W7ENK says:

      Matty has trouble wrapping his mind around complicated subjects like orographic lift and adiabatic cooling.

  6. BoringOregon says:

    Wow, that high def, studio Look’s good. Weird just wen’t out side it’s so clear I can see all the stars out, looks like it’s raining in Portland !?!?

  7. JJ78259 says:

    Nice rain today in San Antonio, gave everything a drink. Labor day weekend looks awesome sunshine and 95 all weekend!

  8. High Desert Mat says:

    Just have to post on the thunderstorm we had here in Redmond yesterday. Was getting back from silver lake area after a weekend of bow hunting and it felt like I was in a storm like Florida does. Almost golf ball sized hail, an inch of rain in about 45 min, and winds that damaged alot of things. 70 plus mph winds, people were kayaking down surface streets and I’ve never heard thunder so loud. The lightning was incredible. Directly overhead. All I can say is wow, eat your heart out Erik and Dan. Lol

    • Yup, that was a biggie. If you were a farmer or had a garden, that would be a problem for sure. Kinda glad we don’t get those big storms over here.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      You trippin’ man. I posted that I was coming back from Harney county on Sunday and got caught in heavy TRW’s both in Bend and Sisters. Probably the same batch you saw. Check out older comment. Back at you. Peace.

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Back at me peace? Are you 59 or what? Wow, only thought teenie boppers talked like that

  9. WEATHERDAN says:

    Went east of the Cascades this past weekend.I was down in Harney county at the the Malheur Caves. I was there for a Freemason ritual inside a 3,000 foot log lava tube that is so big you can drive an suv inside it. And some did. The weather was hot with a lot of smoke in the air. On Sunday as we were coming back we got some some very heavy Thunderstorms in both Bend and Sisters. Must have been hundreds of lightning strikes and lots of heavy hail and rain. First that big storm in Salem a couple of weeks ago and now these two thunderboomers. I sure have seen a lot of convective weather this summer. Well now on to September. I hope we get that possible heat wave after all. And I won’t even mind a rainy Labor day weekend. Peace.

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like vigorous shortwaves/showers!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    847 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2013

    SHORT TERM…A COUPLE OF RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN THIS MORNING ROTATING AROUND THE OFFSHORE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRST WAVE
    WAS CROSSING 130W AND LIFTING NE…LOOKING REASONABLY WELL HANDLED BY MODELS. THE SECOND…DIGGING DOWN NEAR 140W APPEARED TO BE UNDERESTIMATED BY MODELS. AS FAR AS THE FORECAST GOES FOR TODAY… THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS LIKELY TO BE BRUSHED WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHOWERS
    EXTENDING S WITH THE FRONT FROM 45N TO 40N. THESE SHOWERS LOOK ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY…SO WILL BUMP UP POPS SOME OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TODAY.

  11. W7ENK says:

    Labor Day weekend… after such an amazing summer, isn’t it fitting that Mother Nature would kick us square in the teeth like that? Just lovely, in’nit?? 😥

  12. Greg Carstens says:

    Okay time for my own comment now…

    Mark, you know my trust in especially the long term GFS. It is not very strong. I am sticking to the ECMWF again as usual. The NWS Seattle discussions have already said that the low (which ever way it moves) should become a cut off low. One model takes it right over me up here in Tacoma and another takes it Southeast over Oregon. For a few days the NWS has also been talking about the flow being zonal and I have to tell you up here it has surely felt like it the last few days with temperatures that have not even made it 75 the last few days. I did actually receive 0.01 inches of rain today.

    Most years when things are very dry all the way into mid October I expect it to be pretty wet there after. I still think if we end up pretty wet at the end of August into the first part of September that we will dry out but I am not sold on hot temperatures that the GFS is toying with in the long term. I kind of think we will end up with an average September all around and then October may be average to a little dry overall. This idea I think would go along with the NOAA CPC forecasts in the long term and the ENSO forecast for this fall headed toward the winter in the later half of December.

  13. schmit44 says:

    8/25/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:93 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft) & CW2049 Imnaha(1978 ft) & GRANDE RONDE RIV(1594 ft)
    Low: 66 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:49 at Rim(7050 ft)
    Low: 34 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 41 degrees
    DANNER (86/45 ) (4225 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.20″ at Cow Canyon (US 9(3110ft)
    1.10″ at SALT CREEK FALLS(4000ft)
    0.99″ at DW7631 Redmond(3025ft)
    0.98″ at MADRAS(2441ft)
    0.97″ at MT. YONCALLA(1822ft)

  14. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Nice to see that the ensemble is a lot less extreme with the early September heat than the operational runs. Likely it will be short-lived warm spell. Then back to fall-like weather hopefully. 🙂

  15. schmit44 says:

    We are entering the weather roller coaster now as we’re leaving behind the unusually consistent weather pattern of the last two months.

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Ahhh yes almost time to enter the transition months of September and October that take us to more active weather. The real question is though, will we see a lot of it earlier this year?

  16. Kent Estep says:

    HA! Around Hollywood the joke was that HD is keeping the make-up people really busy. Didn’t know you guys had to switch sets just to use HD cameras…unless maybe the new cameras revealed a little too much about the old set’s construction…now when does the tower cam get an HD upgrade ?

  17. karlbonner1982 says:

    I saw some September monthly prediction (maybe Accuweather, can’t quite remember) that showed the warmth hanging out around the West Coast all the way through September 16, then “near seasonal” after that. Might as well finish summer on a strong note (yet AGAIN!)

%d bloggers like this: