Looks like it’s back the usual programming of a bit above average temps for the next week. Here’s a peek at the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble charts:
They both show temps going a bit warmer than the typical +13 to +14 degrees celsius at 4,000′ for this time of the year. I don’t see a setup for hot weather either…in fact I’d say this summer has been just about perfect. Remember it can get REALLY hot this time of year,..the 1981 heat wave is one example:
The upper level low currently centered over Eastern Washington fills (weakens) the next few days and then a trough or upper-low (depending on which model you look at) redevelops to our south. Here’s the 00z GFS showing that scenario for next Thursday morning on the 500mb chart:
Note this can be a perfect pattern for a thunderstorm outbreak over Oregon, even west of the Cascades. Maybe…I like that SE flow aloft though. I have a feeling more action, and poor fire weather, is ahead for the Pacific Northwest in the next 7-10 days.
Once again, no model is showing hot weather (90+ in Portland) over the next week, although we may get close Sunday.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen