Quick Afternoon T’Storm Update

3:45pm Wednesday…

The chance for widespread thunderstorms west of the Cascades continues to be low, but any of us near the Cascades COULD see some action the next few hours.

Right now thunderstorms are firing up along the crest of the Cascades and moving NNE:

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Last night I really downplayed the chances for action down here in the lowlands, especially since models have consistently failed to forecast any significant thunderstorm activity west of the Cascades.   Our 18z RPM forecast for 5pm shows the current cluster of Cascade storms dying down as they head north into the southern Washington Cascades this evening:

mgWeb_WRF_20130731-180000_ANW_ECONUS_F00060000_PsatVisible_R4km

Here’s the cloud cover forecast from the 12z WRF-GFS:

olr.12.0000

Keep a close eye on the radar the next few hours, but as of now it looks real quiet…Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

29 Responses to Quick Afternoon T’Storm Update

  1. BoringOregon says:

    Wow, amazing temperature change. It’s only 60 out now got some rain last night made the road wet tell mid afternoon. Amazing what a little thunder action can do.

  2. WEATHERDAN says:

    The NWS now says that Salem had no rain in July. They had said that we had .o1. I talked to the folks there last weekend at the AMS summer picnic and explained to them that the day Salem was supposed to have had this rain the NWS reported we were having clear skies all day. After further review the NWS must have decided we didn’t have the rain after all. Cloudy skies and 64 degrees and cloudy in Salem at noon.

  3. July 2013 in Battle Ground
    Highest High: 92.3, 16th
    Lowest Low: 43.4, 12th
    Highest Wind: WNW 20, 26th
    Most Precip: Trace, 3 Dates

    Total Precip: Trace

    Avg High: 81.7
    Avg Low: 50.6
    Mean: 66.2

    My average low for July was cooler than June.

  4. schmit44 says:

    7/31/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 72 at John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at CHARLOTTE RIDGE(1220 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft) & MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft) & FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)
    Low: 39 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 45 degrees
    NELSON (96/51 ) (2567 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.40″ at NEW CRESCENT LAK(4800ft)
    0.32″ at BEND WATERSHED(5330ft)
    0.21″ at BLACK ROCK(4891ft)

  5. Had some sprinkles this evening and heard some distant thunder. Pretty pleasant day with a high of 71.

  6. BoringOregon says:

    Looks like another weather bust 😦 .

  7. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Can see the upper low spinning about on Water Vapor sat.
    Could get lucky, as long as it’s performing this activity.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4

    • Lurkyloo says:

      ‘poose, I know you love your donkeys — I’ve been pullin’ for you! But, that don’t seem to make no nevermind. I knew you’d show up when the “threat” of thunderstorms came around. Still hoping for some fun stuff — fingers crossed … 🙂

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Them there donkeys’ll wander back into the neighborhood, Lurkyloo!
      We must be relentlessly on watch.

  8. Hal in Aims says:

    we’ll see if any of those little guys hold together until they get here…doesn’t look all that promising…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      This will bear watching.

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      715 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

      .MESOSCALE UPDATE…BEST CO-LOCATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS RIGHT ALONG THE LANE COUNTY CASCADE CREST AND THEN SOUTH INTO
      KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. DIME SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CHEMULT…EAST OF THE MAIN CORE OF AN EARLIER STORM. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SMALL CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN LANE COUNTY WHERE STRONGER STORMS MAY SNEAK BACK INTO THIS EVENING…WHICH INCLUDES HIGHWAY 58 NEAR WILLAMETTE PASS. ADDITIONALLY…THE RAP MODEL HANGS ONTO DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE LANE COUNTY AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES/EASTERN FOOTHILLS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT IF NOT LONGER… COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF
      SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WE ARE SEEING NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA INITIATING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST THIS EVENING.
      MEANWHILE…WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. THESE CELLS ARE FIGHTING A STOUT CAP AND ARE LOWER TOPPED..BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING THE CAP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER…AS IS OCCURRING NEAR MILL CITY AND SILVER FALLS STATE PARK. EXPANDED THE
      SHOWER WORDING THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NORTH VALLEY…AND KEPT THE THUNDER WORDING
      IN THE FOOTHILLS FOR NOW GIVEN THE STRONGER CAP IN THE VALLEY…THOUGH THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. KMD

  9. runrain says:

    Looks like one tiny but intense cell right near Woodburn, headed towards Wilsonville.

  10. paulbeugene says:

    What is it looking like SE of PDX? Would not be surprised if there was late evening thunderstorm over I-205 area.

  11. paulbeugene says:

    I am hoping for a two for one special…another decent cell moving N toward Central OR, I suspect that as sun goes down it may weaken but maybe not.
    That one would be worth photographing.

    Sounds like east Seattle metro got some lightning as well today.

  12. runrain says:

    Some showers have popped up just on the east side of I5 down by Salem, moving north. Wonder if they’ll hold together.

  13. Hal in Aims says:

    even though there is nothing on radar…..wonder if that little band of popcorn down south oriented nw–se might do something after while…

  14. WX NINJA says:

    Tyler and I are heading East to chase. Will be in The Dalles in 30 mins or so. Looks like it may be all for nothing….

  15. BoringOregon says:

    Wow, that was fast. Thanks, mark I hope the winds do not blow them off to the east !!

  16. paulbeugene says:

    Had quite a few close CG strikes at Black Butte Ranch. Probably .25in rain. No hail. No strong winds. Saw flames erupt within minutes of a lightning strike on Black Crater.

    Still ongoing…

  17. runrain says:

    Purple showing up on the radar on that storm just north of Santiam Pass.

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