Back at Work

Real busy today catching up on two weeks’ worth of emails and dealing with a weather center move/rebuild.    Clearly I missed no weather in the past two weeks.

But maybe some weather action this week…maybe.  An upper level low develops offshore and then heads right over us Thursday and Friday.  Not a real cold low, but 850mb temps around +7 or +8 are well below average for the first couple of days in August.  I think the best chance for any thunder west of the Cascades is probably late Wednesday through Thursday morning.  MAYBE something pops up Thursday afternoon IF we don’t get a big marine push and IF the best lift has not headed north and east by that time.  Still not the classic setup for summer thunderstorms west of the Cascades though.  I’d prefer to see SE flow aloft and a marine push holding off.

July has been just about perfect if you ask me…not too hot here in far NW Oregon and SW Washington, but lots of sunshine.  We’ve seen just enough marine air to keep most days at/below 90 degrees here in Portland.  But look how much warmer it’s been just down the Valley!  Eugene has seen more than double the 90 degree days that we have.

MarkHeatwaveStudio_90degreeOregonDays

Here’s some real weather action…a great view of a tornado from inside an office building in Italy.  Notice there are some other tornado videos from the same area on the site.  Listen to that wind scream!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/29/tornadoes-strike-italy-video/

 

Next week looks like a return to summer with above average temps again.  We’ll see if we get above 85 here in Portland, but more 90s seem likely from Salem south again.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

45 Responses to Back at Work

  1. paulbeugene says:

    Have already seen two fires start from lightning strikes in real time..can see the flames on one.
    Lots of lightning over three sisters

  2. runrain says:

    Storm over Santiam Pass right now is looking pretty nasty!

  3. BoringOregon says:

    Mark, should do a weather blog on today’s thunder storm chance. Any body else notice how bad the Yellow jackets are right now !?!

  4. paulbeugene says:

    Looks like cells starting to pop up over S OR Cascades as of 14:00. Should be over Deschutes Co by 16:00 or so.

    Lifted index over S OR Cascades currently -4 to -8.

    Most unstable CAPE up to 2000.

    0-6km shear 40-50kt +

    Looks good.

  5. Okay, so here are photos from my trip to Arizona in July, keep in mind I did see a ton of lightning, but the photo opportunities were not really there.

    I did have the lightning trigger, which either didn’t work the best, or perhaps I just need some more time with it!

    The few lightning shots I captured were captured manually.

    I have just started processing the videos from my camera, my video camera and my go pro, that will take some time to get edited and on line. I am much more impressed with that than any pictures.

    • runrain says:

      Great clouds shots, Tyler. Love seeing that water running over the desert roads and those washes filled with water where you don’t normally see water down there.

  6. poolsidemike says:

    Good news! THE NWS has totally backed off on thunderstorm threats West of the Cascades….that should bid well for good storms here later!!!!

    • Slam dunk now! I still remember plenty of times seeing convection fire over the top of the marine layer.

      The thing that concerns me overall is I don’t remember a good outbreak without temps 85-90+.

    • BoringOregon says:

      I love how on, kgw they keep on pushing back the time for the thunder storms. Yesterday they where saying around 2pm now there saying around 5pm. Let’s just hope for some thing we need a little rain :).

    • runrain says:

      Not common but I remember some good storms after a 75 deg high.

  7. paulbeugene says:

    Could see some decent high based thunderstorms developing in central Oregon by 3PM then developing points N and E thereafter.

    W of Cascades, appears the farther N, the better chances of thunderstorms (SEA AFD suggests this).

    Not thinking the storms will be on the severe side. Should be good lightning though.

  8. Hal in Aims says:

    sure doesn’t look or feel like thunder with this very thick fog this morning….

  9. schmit44 says:

    7/30/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:98 at DW9659 Richland(2379 ft) & BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft)
    Low: 71 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:56 at YACHTS Yachats(82 ft)
    Low: 30 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 54 degrees
    COLGATE (89/35 ) (3231 ft )
    Horse Ridge (US (85/31) (4160 ft)

  10. Guess the sunshine couldn’t last forever – sure was nice though!

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Don’t worry, it will be back after a couple days of nourishing rain. Variety!

      A lot of areas in the Midwest and East coast get the majority of their annual rainfall in the Summer. We’re lucky enough to have our warmest weather on average coincide with our driest weather on average out here. Food for thought….

  11. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Bout time Mark got back for one of his 26 weeks of work this year 🙂

  12. .SHORT TERM…MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
    HIGH BASED MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE
    THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO WETTER STORMS
    BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
    WARNING FOR LIGHTNING AND DRY FUELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO
    BE OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA…THE CASCADES AND
    FOOTHILLS…STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE VALLEY AND COAST
    RANGE IN THIS PATTERN.

    UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST SEEN
    BEST IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS
    ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
    THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
    CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
    THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
    IS LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET IS OVER
    NORTHWEST WASHINGTON BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL
    DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
    DAY WED. MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN UP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
    WELL. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
    COOLER MARINE AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH INSTABILITY THERE WE
    WILL ONLY NEED SOME MINOR LIFTING MECHANISM TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
    CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH RAIN
    REACHING THE GROUND FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

    ONE THING TO CONSIDER IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION DURING
    THIS EVENT. LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRESENT THE BEST
    TIMES FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT
    OF THE QUESTION AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE MID AND HIGH
    LEVEL CAPE ARE THE GREATEST…COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE.
    THE CONCERN WOULD BE MOSTLY STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH WOULD
    ALSO PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

    SOUTHWEST ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY BRINGING
    COOLER MARINE AIR INTO THE VALLEYS. ALOFT IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
    UNSTABLE WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. SOME SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY WRAP AROUND THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
    MID DAY THURSDAY…BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW MOVING EAST
    WITH THE WRAP AROUND OVER THE CASCADES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

    Hope we get something!

  13. kent says:

    I am willing to trade two weeks of sunny, warm, perfect weather for one decent thunderstorm! I’ll toss in another week for some hail and/or damaging straight line winds…

  14. BoringOregon says:

    Come on T-storms !!!!

    • runrain says:

      From the NWS:

      * LIGHTNING…THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
      PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WITH LAL OF 3 OR HIGHER AT TIMES.
      IN DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN LAL OF 6.

      I know what LOL is. What is LAL??

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I think they meant ” LCL ” ??

      But I’m not so sure…

    • Justin in Bellingham says:

      Lightning Activity Level, here’s a link

      http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/LAL.php

    • runrain says:

      Maybe its Lightning At Last. Of course, the forests don’t feel that way right now.

    • BoringOregon says:

      LALs
      (L)ightning (A)ctivity (L)evels.
      LAL 1 – No thunderstorms.
      LAL 2 – Few building cumulus with isolated thunderstorms.
      LAL 3 – Much building cumulus with scattered thunderstorms. Light to moderate rain.
      LAL 4 – Thunderstorms common. Moderate to heavy rain reaching the ground.
      LAL 5 – Numerous thunderstorms. Moderate to heavy rain reaching the ground.
      LAL 6 – Dry lightning (same as LAL 3 but without the rain).

    • BoringOregon says:

      LCL
      1. Abbreviation for “local” or “locally”

      2. Lifting Condensation Level – the level at which a parcel of moist air becomes saturated when it is lifted dry adiabatically.

  15. schmit44 says:

    AUGUST 2013 WEATHER CONTEST ENTRY FORM
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/AUGUST2013/add.php

    Entries will close Friday night August 2nd

  16. Of course if we do get any thunderstorms before midnight on Wednesday it will ruin our rainless July.

    Of course not in Salem, where they somehow recorded 0.01″ of precip on the 20th. Must have been drizzle from the stratus deck.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      There was no stratus deck on the 20th. It was a sunny 93 degrees that day in Salem. I looked at the hourly observations and at the time we were supposed to have had the .01 Salem was reporting clear skies. Go figure that one out.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Sorry, wrong day, it was 83 and sunny that day. But still no stratus deck. Only patches of low clouds. 1 tenth cloud cover at best and for only 2 hours. A mystery to me.

    • WX NINJA says:

      Report it to the NWS and maybe they will correct it as it could have been an error.

    • Andrew (Near Silver Falls 1600') says:

      Yeah, there is no way SLE had rain this month IMO.

    • WEATHERDAN says:

      Actually I discussed this with somebody from the NWS at the AMS summer party last weekend. He said he would look into the matter.

  17. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    Go figure, no rain all July, schedule a roof job for this week and look what happens…the one time I’m not looking forward to t-storms

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      At least the upside of PNW t’storms is that they normally last 15-20 minutes. After riding it out it takes a while to get another storm!

  18. DallasBob@500feet says:

    In Maui right now with Tropical Storm Flossie. HEAVY rain and strong winds along with a nice lightning show…phones went off for everybody with a NWS flood warning. Fun weather!

  19. Karl Bonner says:

    Eugene was PERFECT Saturday – today, 80s but with the classic cool nights if the South Valley.

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