The Summer Doldrums; Mild Weather Continues…

I came in today, looked at the maps, and wondered what I was possibly going to talk about for 2-3 minutes in each show this evening.  Still not sure, but somehow I always fill the time.

The Highlights

  • No rain in sight
  • Warmer Tuesday, then cooler, then warmer again early next week
  • No heatwave in sight
  • No thunderstorms for most of our viewing area in the next week
  • Definitely no thunderstorms west of the Cascades

We are in the deadest time of the year here in the Pacific Northwest, but that means great weather for summer vacations!  If you have outdoor plans in the next week  (probably longer), you have dependably mild to warm weather and no rain in the forecast.

Here are the usual charts/maps…

12z & 18z GFS ensemble charts:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland (1)

12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Last night’s monthly ECMWF run, the weekly charts of 500mb height:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

The big picture with the ensemble charts?  Operational runs of both the GFS and ECMWF are a little on the warm side for the first few days of next week, pushing the hot western ridge a bit closer to us than it will actually get.  I believe that considering that’s what is occurring right now.  Remember that at one point it appeared we might get into the 90s either today or tomorrow.  In fact, on the 7 Day our forecasts for today and tomorrow were 88 and 90 in the early/middle part of last week.  As a result, I didn’t get too crazy with low-mid 90s Sunday and beyond.

Other than that…wow, boring.

We are approaching our warmest time of year, here’s a little TV graphic showing average high temps in Portland peaking out at 81 or higher from July 13th-August 14th.  We even average 82 for a high for about two weeks at the end of July and early August.

MarkHeatwaveStudio_SummerTemps

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

17 Responses to The Summer Doldrums; Mild Weather Continues…

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Last year at the end of July we had exactly 1 day at or above 90. And it was exactly 90. This year as of July 9th we have 6 days over 90 with a maximum of 96 degrees. NWS forecasts Sunday-Tuesday will all be at or close to 90 degrees. So with barely half of the month of July gone we might have 9 days over 90 for the summer. I am really enjoying this summer.

  2. AdamInAumsville says:

    91 degrees in Salem and Eugene. A little warmer than expected.

  3. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Just got 80% done with a three day roofing job for a friend. I am actually glad that the roofing company that delivered the shingles forgot the capping shingles for the top row. It was time to get off the roof anyway as the asphalt shingles were beginning to tear, and the wind died about an hour ago! We were planning to do a full tear off and reroofing starting 2 weekends ago. So, thankfully, things got put on ice for a couple of weeks, and we missed the overnight monsoons, and the 90 + degree days. This was absolutely perfect weather!

  4. W7ENK says:

    This weather is the reason why I survive winter.

    This is perfect!

    Keep it coming, and maybe add some thunderstorms in a week or two?

  5. Randy says:

    Mark

    When I was a kid here back in the 70’s the highest average high was 79 degrees. I remember in the 90’s I noticed it at 80, then 81. Now it is 82 highest average high at its peak for the year. That is 3 degrees in 40 years. Am I getting old or is this correct on the higher average by 3 degrees for this time of year vs the 70’s? Thanks

    • runrain says:

      I remember that too back in the 70’s! Being a young weather nerd, it greatly disappointed me that our highest average high was 79 and not 80. Can’t get much weather-nerdier than that!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I thought it was only 80 back in the early 1990s when I started in the TV business.

  6. schmit44 says:

    7/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:101 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 75 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:58 at Newport(30 ft) & NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & Brookings (US 10(150 ft)
    Low: 34 at Cresent (US 97 M (4455 ft ) & Crescent (4462 ft ) & DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 51 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (87/36 ) (5330 ft )
    Cresent (US 97 M (85/34) (4455 ft)

  7. karlbonner1982 says:

    While the weather’s boring in the summer you could pull out a bunch of data charts and talk about history of first 90, occurrence of 100s, rain-free Julys, rain-free Augusts, etc. I especially liked your post late last summer titled “Is summer getting later?”

  8. DBurnett in St Helens says:

    Forecast looks perfect, Mark; highs around 80, sunny, and no rain in sight.

    sigh… still, I occasionally miss the weather in Colorado Springs. It seems like that area has more thunderstorm action during one summer evening than we have during an entire year.

  9. oldwxwatcher says:

    Just hope the humidity goes down again. The dew point hit 60° today.

  10. runrain says:

    Well, you filled the blog nicely for it being such boring weather, Mark. Now, for the TV audience maybe you could pull out your tap shoes (?)

  11. BoringOregon says:

    Mark, nothing get’s more boring then living in boring lol !!

  12. Excellent way to start the summer. Thanks!

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