The Summer Doldrums; Mild Weather Continues…

July 8, 2013

I came in today, looked at the maps, and wondered what I was possibly going to talk about for 2-3 minutes in each show this evening.  Still not sure, but somehow I always fill the time.

The Highlights

  • No rain in sight
  • Warmer Tuesday, then cooler, then warmer again early next week
  • No heatwave in sight
  • No thunderstorms for most of our viewing area in the next week
  • Definitely no thunderstorms west of the Cascades

We are in the deadest time of the year here in the Pacific Northwest, but that means great weather for summer vacations!  If you have outdoor plans in the next week  (probably longer), you have dependably mild to warm weather and no rain in the forecast.

Here are the usual charts/maps…

12z & 18z GFS ensemble charts:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland (1)

12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Last night’s monthly ECMWF run, the weekly charts of 500mb height:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

The big picture with the ensemble charts?  Operational runs of both the GFS and ECMWF are a little on the warm side for the first few days of next week, pushing the hot western ridge a bit closer to us than it will actually get.  I believe that considering that’s what is occurring right now.  Remember that at one point it appeared we might get into the 90s either today or tomorrow.  In fact, on the 7 Day our forecasts for today and tomorrow were 88 and 90 in the early/middle part of last week.  As a result, I didn’t get too crazy with low-mid 90s Sunday and beyond.

Other than that…wow, boring.

We are approaching our warmest time of year, here’s a little TV graphic showing average high temps in Portland peaking out at 81 or higher from July 13th-August 14th.  We even average 82 for a high for about two weeks at the end of July and early August.

MarkHeatwaveStudio_SummerTemps

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen