Saturday Update: Hot, but Not Record Setting Next Few Days

8am Saturday…

I’m back in town today; a very nice arrival into PDX last night too with temps in the lower 80s.  My wife and I both noticed how “fresh” it smelled when we got out to our car…just that Pacific Northwest summer feel I suppose.

As the PDX NWS forecast discussion says…an interesting forecast pattern the next few days…

The Highlights:

  • A weak push from the ocean last night means a little cooler today, so high temps should drop into the upper 80s, not really hot by Portland standards, but not noticeably different from yesterday.
  • Back to hot Sunday-Tuesday
  • Temps probably top out around 92-95 Monday and/or Tuesday, not record-setting since records are 105-102 for those days!
  • A thunderstorm is possible anywhere inland the next few days, but extremely hard to pinpoint who gets a storm and when

 

Another very warm night last night, but there is a change that occurred;  cooler ocean air with lower dewpoints moved inland.  I see dewpoints are below 60 here in the metro area.  As a result we’ll probably be just a few notches cooler today even though we are running 5 degrees warmer at 8am.

A blowup of thunderstorms occurred in the middle of the night/early this morning over in northeast Oregon and eastern Washington.  Check out the lightning!  We have a nice deep flow of moisture coming up from the south the next 3-4 days, somewhat unusual for our area.  Sure, a strong ridge of high pressure nearby to keep the action capped most of the time.  But if a disturbance, even a weak one, rides up the southerly flow we could get a thunderstorm anywhere at any time of the day.  Very tough to forecast.

lightning1

In the past several runs models have really been struggling with placement and strength of the upper level ridge the next few days.   The 00z GFS really backed off the heat, and the NAM is following.  In fact the 12z NAM has us only in the 80s Monday and Tuesday!  The 6z GFS was back to a little warmer and prolongs the warm temps through Independence Day (Thursday).  The old reliable ECMWF, which definitely seems more stable the past few years, is staying with it’s “HOT, BUT NOT TOO HOT” theme for the early part of the week.  Note the 6z GFS ensemble chart first:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

 

Then the 00z ECMWF:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

 

The ECMWF has been very solid at a +20 to +23 degree 850mb temp peak Monday-Tuesday for many runs while the GFS was swinging wildly out of control.  You can see the operational run (blue) is well above the ensemble mean for the latter half of the week.  It’s a matter of how much of  “dent” we get in the ridging later next week.  The 6z GFS chart is similar with the operational much warmer than the rest of the members.  The BIG PICTURE is above average temps are likely the next 10 days or so…probably.

We’ll see how this pans out, but this is definitely not any sort of historic or record-setting heatwave coming up west of the Cascades.  Just a quick jump into summer.

Now for a REAL heatwave, check this out from the Las Vegas NWS office:

vegas

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

 

 

54 Responses to Saturday Update: Hot, but Not Record Setting Next Few Days

  1. It’s running 5 degrees cooler right now than it was at the same time yesterday, despite starting 5 degrees warmer.

  2. JJ78259 says:

    106 with a heat index of 112 Saturday, Sunday cool air moved in and we had a great thunderstorm lots of lightning good rain then by 12 noon back to beautiful sunshine with a high of 84 great weekend! This week low 90s lows in the 60s

  3. June 2013 in Battle Ground
    Highest High: 94.1, 30th
    Lowest Low: 39.5, 10th
    Highest Wind: WNW 18, Several dates
    Most Precip: 0.51″, 24th

    Total Precip: 2.54″

    Avg High: 75.2
    Avg Low: 50.9
    Mean: 63

  4. schmit44 says:

    6/30/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:107 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 77 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:63 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)
    Low: 41 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 53 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (101/48 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.37″ at GRASSY MOUNTAIN(4560ft)
    0.21″ at DANNER(4225ft)
    0.21″ at P HILL(4860ft)

  5. runrain says:

    At 8:30pm I passed thru Kelso and it was 75. An hour later arriving in Portland it was 83.

  6. schmit44 says:

    JULY 2013 WEATHER CONTEST – ENTRIES CLOSE AT MIDNIGHT

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/JULY2013/add.php

  7. archangelmichael2 says:

    Has anybody on here ever been through a brownout where you do have electricity but not enough due to resistance?

    I saw a video of one on Youtube where it showed some appliances worked and others didn’t and he had some kind of wand that showed the voltage which normally it hovers in tiny amounts between 119 to 121 but in this case it was 83 and 84 which for a short bit jumped to 90 but then dipped back to the low voltage.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxiN99BuKr0 Description After a night of thunderstorms and short power outages, the power finally stabled out. The only problem was that the storm had damaged a transformer in the neighborhood, causing a drop in voltage. So in this vid, I pretty much go around showing you the effects of the under voltage on various electrical devices in the house. Even now as I upload this video, the power is still not 100% back to normal, but at least the ac and the fridge can power on.

  8. AdamInAumsville says:

    Yep. Altocumulus here as well!

  9. paulbeugene says:

    Anticumulus castellanus overhead and points S…..suggestive of elevated anticumulonimbus tonight. Will have to stick a fork into the wall receptacle to get lightning.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Um, okay. What you said, Paul …

      Did you see the pic of the poor little husky puppy who climbed into the toilet for relief from the heat in Eugene? Youtube …

      I have to admit that I was about ready to crawl into the toilet at one point today! 🙂

  10. J-Kelso says:

    There’s cumulus clouds overhead here in Kelso.

  11. Jeff Raetz says:

    My heat index got up to 103 today in se pdx

  12. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    And I am tired of you hoping it gets warm so we can bake the cookies of discontent. My loins aren’t even warm yet!

    The Medullah Oblongotta is making me think your forecast is Nata. Rain and wind are prevalent and I aint even pregnant yet.

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      Morris in the forest. Doyle, such a foil. Sling a ding ding…such a small thing, but what it brings????

      95 and sunny!!! There, Mark….just did your forecast for ya.

      Thank me later!

    • Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

      Game over? Game over? What are we going to do now? 17 days of heat? I can’t stand 17 hours!!!

      Maybe we should put Stephanie in charge!!!

      What say you Mark Hudson?

    • Sifton says:

      Friends with archangelmichael2??

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      I don’t care how hot it is as long as it isn’t humid though at least it’s getting my little weather station the work out it needs.

      Let’s just hope for no major brownouts from this!

      Where is that guy from BPA that used to pop in here?

  13. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Hey Mark, my blood brother.

    What you say we cut ourselves in this 95 degree heat, meld together and be one like we always knew we’d be?

    Heck, then we can sprinkle it into your greenhouse and the plants will grow like Gene Siskel’s moustache in 1982.

  14. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Currently 95.1°/DP 68°. Warmer tomorrow? Yikes!

  15. paulbeugene says:

    95F/Dpt 67 here in EUG. Just got back from 2600 mile griswold trip to S Cal/SF/Sierra. Drove through 110F temp in Red Bluff yesterday afternoon. Looking like a bit of a possibility for elevated convection tonight down here (per PDX AFD). Water vapor imagery shows increased moisture reaching southern Humboldt County in N California this afternoon…on its way N.

  16. schmit44 says:

    6/29/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:107 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft)
    Low: 79 at ALKALI FLAT(2495 ft) & Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:63 at Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 45 at DIMLKE (4726 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (100/53 ) (1389 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.21″ at HERMISTON(550ft)
    0.12″ at EW1765 Mount Hoo(1542ft)
    0.11″ at RIDDLE MTN.(6352ft)
    0.11″ at KB7DZR Joseph(3984ft)

  17. MasterNate says:

    This is ugly. I have a feeling Mark may be adjusting(UP!) his high temps in the 7 day after looking at both models agreeing at prolonged heat. Yuck.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KPDX

  18. BoringOregon says:

    Nice and hot for a yard sale, thanking bout selling root beer floats ?

  19. Jeff Raetz says:

    I hit 89.2 today in SE PDX

  20. Josh "The Snowman" From Everett, WA says:

    Of course, Mark Nelsen makes it hot enough for all of us anyways. 95 or 115 he is record breaking in how much heat he brings to the KPTV weather center. Wow, he is a stallion.

  21. runrain says:

    Nice sunny warm day here in Vancouver BC. The beaches here look like Southern California today! I doubt this area has seen this warm of weather for quite a while. Even some build ups off the coast and of course over the Cascades to the east.

  22. A short time lapse of the aurora from last night:

  23. Prime example of the unpredictability of the storms is the fact that no model showed the outbreak of storms in Washington last night.

  24. schmit44 says:

    Still loving the fact that all models still remain above climo for the next 14 days or so. Last two years we had some cool wx in early July and this year is a nice change.

    • This will be great for the garden. I know I’ve only had my station in BG 3 years now, but I set 21 record highs this month…including today and tomorrow.

      By my 3rd year at my Minnehaha station, I only averaged about 6 new record highs.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I agree about the garden. I notice the soil is still moist. Add highs in the 90s to that and the veggies will go crazy this next week.

  25. That’s why I chose to live here. Not so extreme.

  26. It is noticeably less humid this morning vs. yesterday. Much better!

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