Thunder Possible This Afternoon

10:30am Monday…

thunder

We appear to be setup for scattered thunderstorms to break out this afternoon over evening just about anywhere in the FOX12 viewing area.

The Ingredients:

  • Ample sunshine this morning to warm us up nicely
  • A deep upper-level low offshore giving us a moist south/southwest flow aloft
  • A weak disturbance moving northward in that flow later this afternoon for a trigger
  • Nice area of CAPE (Convective energy)
  • Zero or below lifted index (for lifting)

This doesn’t appear to be a big bad thunderstorm outbreak pattern (probably won’t look like the above pic!), but any thunderstorm action is exciting around here since we rarely see them.

Storm movement this afternoon will be from the SSW to NNE, so look to the southwest to see what’s coming during the afternoon hours and you can always find the radar at this link:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/send.php?type=RTX-N0Q-1-24

Lightning strikes are here:  http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/lightning1.jpg

 

As the upper level low moves closer Tuesday and then right over us Wednesday we’ll see more action and chillier temps.  More funnel clouds at some point?  Maybe.

I’m still on vacation today, but back at home catching up on the weeds and emails/bills.  I’ll write about the fun vacation week, and why I never want to see the Lochsa River from a car again, tomorrow.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to Thunder Possible This Afternoon

  1. vernonia1 says:

    US30, 2 miles West of Cornelius Pass Road MP 15
    Closure

    A crash has the highway closed at Wildwood. A detour, for passenger vehicles only, is in place using Logie Trail Road and RocKy Point Road to Skyline.

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    New post

  3. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Some thunder in the south salem hills…Don’t see anything yet

  4. Marcus the weather nut says:

    There looks to be a little more action coming our way For this afternoon!!!:)

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Gather up the burrito wrappers!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    916 AM PDT TUE JUN 18 2013

    .SHORT TERM…TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY…THIS MORNING IS OFF TO A SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LOWER COLUMBIA…BUT
    CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT THERE ARE ALREADY SOME DECENT CUMULUS BUILDUPS HERE AT THE OFFICE IN
    PARKROSE/NE PORTLAND. CLOUDS ARE MORE SOLID ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE CASCADES WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
    THE 12Z SALEM SOUNDING SHOWED A DECENT CAP AROUND 650 MB WHICH WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
    AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOW A SIMILAR CAP NEAR PORTLAND. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE COAST…THIS CAP WILL
    WEAKEN…OPENING THE DOOR FOR CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE HEATS UP. WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY…WITH SOME BREAKING THE CAP
    BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE COAST RANGE EASTWARD. BOTH DIRECTIONAL
    AND SPEED SHEAR LOOK VERY MODEST THIS AFTERNOON…BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE CELLS TO BE LONG LIVED AND STRONGER FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. TODAYS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THOUGH.

  6. schmit44 says:

    6/17/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)
    Low: 68 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:51 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 28 at DIMLKE (4726 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    Horse Ridge (US (78/32 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.27″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)

  7. Hey Mark, or anyone…

    Kelso was down for a few days, were back online now but i notice we now have a WX column, i dont recall KKLS having that previously. i only noticed it cause that cell that passed by registered a VCTS. is that new or what? i really dont recall us having that feature here. maybe thats why it was down for a couple days? to upgrade? saw nothing in the local paper here.

  8. Sandman, Aloha 300' says:

    Isn’t the Locksa awesome? It is just like the Upper Clackamas. I was thinking of the whitewater possibilities as my wife and I were driving along it.

  9. Hal In Aims says:

    Maybe someone will get a bit of action this evening….looks like the cap is holding firm over the foothills..for now anyway….

  10. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Pappoose, did you get any action as it just went by you? Thanks, I am looking forward to any action.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Sure looked like it was gonna fire off, but didn’t. Was fun to watch though!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      It’s almost on you man! Get outside!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Passing by just East of you. Have report of hail and lightning from that cell!

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      Yeah, I heard some distant thunder, you are correct. The cell went to the east of me. Maybe later tonight or Tuesday. Oh, some very small hail came down for few moments.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya, lets hope for bigger and better action tomorrow. I’ll give you a preview of coming attractions, as the cells go by!

    • runrain says:

      Oh when the cells, go marching by , oh when the sales go marching by, you’re gonna hear that clap of thunder, when the cells go marching by. (Sung to When the Saints Come Marchin’ In)

  11. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Hey, it looks like we are in the line of fire here in Longview. A small line of fire though.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Very impressive looking when it passed by here.
      Should be there soon, hope it fires up for you!

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      I am seeing some red from the radar just north of you if not a little west of you Pappoose.

  12. Archangel Michael2 says:

    Phew! Glad there is something to talk about. I was getting real worried that Mark got bored and decided to ban a bunch of people just for fun.

  13. W7ENK says:

    I’m waiting with ‘bated breath… 🙂

  14. schmit44 says:

    I love that Lochsa river drive up to Lolo Pass, Montana. In 2000 coming back from Glacier NP in Late July on a 100 degree afternoon I stopped for an hour and took a swim in that river. It was crystal clear warm water about 70 degrees or so.

  15. pappoose in scappoose says:

    (PROBABLY won’t look like the above pic!)

    I really like your weather forecasting talk, Mark!
    But you’re saying there’s a chance…

  16. TracyEllen Carson Webb says:

    Why did you park your car in the river? That’s kinda wet!

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