S L O W Weather Pattern

June 6, 2013

9:30pm Thursday…

I’ve been extremely busy the past few days with the Junior Parade, doing all 5 evening shows (Steph is sick), and prepping for a big family trip next week at home.  So no postings, but not much to talk about here in the first week of June weatherwise anyway.  We hit 83 in Portland today, our 3rd day into the 80s.  The warmth has been nice after 2 1/2 weeks of cooler than average weather.

I was working out in the garden today; it’s drying out nicely now.  I finished up planting the last of the warm weather veggies so now it’s just a matter of watering and waiting for the next 2 months.  Not that many of you care about my garden, but it’s my blog so I get to talk about it.  I’ve planted eggplant for the first time.  That’s IN the greenhouse because I’m sure it wouldn’t do well at my elevation with lots of 45 degree nights in summer.  Same with cantaloupe and tomatoes.  They are in the ground, but in the greenhouse; every day in summer is at least 80 in there, many days up around 100 or so.  They should like that!  In fact the tomatoes I planted during the warm weather in early May are growing up real fast.

In the short term, a marine push this evening is in progress and that means some decent cooling tomorrow, we’ll stay in the 70s instead of lower 80s.  A dying front drags across our area in the afternoon, but at worst it’ll turn partly cloudy.  Then not much of anything happening Saturday and Sunday…thus a very nice weekend on tap with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-upper 70s both days.

Models did real well with the warmup this week, I remember seeing a few comments about a week ago to the effect of “I’ll believe it when I see it…”.  Now you’ve seen it!

Now models are all in agreement showing a signficant cooldown with an upper-level trough by the middle of next week (Tuesday/Wednesday).  Take a look at the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF ensemble 850mb temp forecast charts:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

They both show the cooldown, then a return to near normal temps about 10 days from now.  The trough next week doesn’t appear to be real wet, although that could still change.  The biggest effect will be the cooler temps and a lot more cloud cover.  What about beyond that time?  Here is the twice weekly run of last night’s ECMWF.  These are weekly maps of 500mb height. Next week’s trough shows up nicely, but notice a strong ridge over or just west of us the following week or two. That COULD signal a warm 2nd half of the month. It’s interesting to note strong warming doesn’t show up on the time series above, could be ridging just far enough offshore to keep our 850 temps from going too high. That would be a dry pattern too.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

And finally…remember this?  June 2003 saw a nice heat wave very early in the month.  I clearly remember the east wind blowing all night long out in Corbett (I used to live in the wind) with temps remaining in the 70s.  Felt like the warm trade winds in Hawaii!

MarkHeatwaveStudio_June_2003

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen