When I look at the maps/models today, the “look” screams “SUMMER!”. Not that there is any sort of heat wave or even hot weather on the way, but a good week of above average temperatures and lots of sunshine. Perfect for outdoor activities, catching up on yard work, sitting on the deck, etc…
The pattern (which was well advertised/forecast the past week) is more of a July pattern with the weak summer jet stream well to the north and flat upper-level ridging near or over the West Coast. Here’s the Friday morning forecast of 500mb height anomaly from the GFS ensemble forecasts:
Note the big yellow-green area over us showing above average (warmer than normal) heights over us. It’s quite a positive anomaly with heights up in the 580-588 range. Typically in summer we can get 90+ temps out of such high heights, but not when you get a flat ridge like this along the West Coast. In this setup we don’t get the high pressure developing to our east and offshore flow. So it’s 850mb temps around +15 with light onshore flow. That should be enough to get highs into the low-mid 80s.
With such high heights all week-long we don’t get a huge intrusion of marine air at any point, so anything “worse” than morning/midday low clouds is unlikely through the weekend.
Next week is still in the 7-10 day range, but models are actually in pretty good agreement that at least weak upper-level troughing develops again along the West Coast. Here are the anomaly maps from the 18z GFS, 12z GEM, & 12z ECMWF:
They all show the throughing over us next Wednesday. This trend is also on the 850mb temp chart on the 12z ECMWF:
A warm and dry week; time to plant all the rest of the warm weather veggies! Then cooler and maybe wet weather next week.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen