Some Early Summer Weather This Week

5pm Monday…

When I look at the maps/models today, the “look” screams “SUMMER!”.  Not that there is any sort of heat wave or even hot weather on the way, but a good week of above average temperatures and lots of sunshine.  Perfect for outdoor activities, catching up on yard work, sitting on the deck, etc…

The pattern (which was well advertised/forecast the past week) is more of a July pattern with the weak summer jet stream well to the north and flat upper-level ridging near or over the West Coast.  Here’s the Friday morning forecast of 500mb height anomaly from the GFS ensemble forecasts:

ecmwf_fri

Note the big yellow-green area over us showing above average (warmer than normal) heights over us.  It’s quite a positive anomaly with heights up in the 580-588 range.  Typically in summer we can get 90+ temps out of such high heights, but not when you get a flat ridge like this along the West Coast.  In this setup we don’t get the high pressure developing to our east and offshore flow.  So it’s 850mb temps around +15 with light onshore flow.  That should be enough to get highs into the low-mid 80s.

With such high heights all week-long we don’t get a huge intrusion of marine air at any point, so anything “worse” than morning/midday low clouds is unlikely through the weekend.

Next week is still in the 7-10 day range, but models are actually in pretty good agreement that at least weak upper-level troughing develops again along the West Coast.  Here are the anomaly maps from the 18z GFS, 12z GEM, & 12z ECMWF:

gfs_wed

can_wed

ecmwf_wed

They all show the throughing over us next Wednesday.  This trend is also on the 850mb temp chart on the 12z ECMWF:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

A warm and dry week; time to plant all the rest of the warm weather veggies!  Then cooler and maybe wet weather next week.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

11 Responses to Some Early Summer Weather This Week

  1. Jeff Raetz says:

    http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of May 2013

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 58.3°F
    Average humidity = 72%
    Average dewpoint = 47.5°F
    Average barometer = 30.045 in.
    Average windspeed = 1.5 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.0 mph
    Average direction = 229° ( SW)
    Rainfall for month = 4.437 in. (Wettest May on record) (May average is 3.60”)
    Rainfall for year = 14.256 in. (Driest first 5 months on record)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.050 in on day 21 at time 13:25
    Maximum temperature = 86.2°F on day 11 at time 16:10
    Minimum temperature = 35.1°F on day 01 at time 04:40
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 19 at time 05:24
    Minimum humidity = 16% on day 04 at time 17:45
    Maximum dewpoint = 60.2°F on day 12 at time 17:36
    Minimum dewpoint = 29.4°F on day 02 at time 17:16
    Maximum pressure = 30.51 in. on day 01 at time 08:39
    Minimum pressure = 29.62 in. on day 29 at time 05:55
    Maximum windspeed = 12.7 mph from 045°( NE) on day 04 at time 12:21
    Maximum gust speed = 24.2 mph from 045°( NE) on day 05 at time 11:57
    Maximum heat index = 85.1°F on day 11 at time 16:08

    Avg daily max temp :69.1°F
    Avg daily min temp :49.0°F
    Total windrun = 1116.1miles

    Record low wind chill temperature = 33.3 on day 01 at time 06:15
    Record daily rain = .89” on day 23
    Record rain in 1 hour = 0.21” on day 22 at time 23:44
    Warmest day (6am to 6pm) = 74.1 on day 05
    Coldest night (6pm to 6am) = 43.6 on day 22
    Coldest day (6am to 6pm) = 44.5 on day 22
    Warmest night (6pm to 6am) = 68.5 on day 12

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.20 in. on day 12
    00.03 in. on day 13
    00.04 in. on day 15
    00.06 in. on day 16
    00.03 in. on day 17
    00.24 in. on day 18
    00.49 in. on day 21
    00.85 in. on day 22
    00.89 in. on day 23
    00.28 in. on day 24
    00.17 in. on day 26
    00.66 in. on day 27
    00.07 in. on day 28
    00.36 in. on day 29
    00.07 in. on day 30

    *Records since October 2008*

  2. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The goal: Set the record for highest successful egg drop.

    http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Lakebay-school-sets-record-for-highest-egg-drop-210035491.html

  3. karlbonner1982 says:

    So Mark mentioned on the news tonight that June is a “transition” month between spring and summer.

    Obvious NEXT question to ask Mark is: what are the *other three* seasonal transition months?

  4. Sandman, Aloha 300' says:

    Sounds GOOD!!

  5. Kirk says:

    Looks like we’re safe for the World Naked Bike Ride Saturday night!

    • Sifton says:

      Lets hope, the beautiful weekend forecast dropped about 8 degrees with clouds in the last 12 hours. But of course………..

  6. Sifton says:

    You gotta be ****** kiddin me, more rain?!? Hold up JJ, I’m catchin a ride to S.A. with you & da fam!!

  7. W7ENK says:

    Summer! And it’s on time for once, too!! 😀

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