Memorial Day Weather Action

What a horrid Memorial Day weatherwise!

A surface low pressure center offshore and a frontal system brought steady rain from daybreak through midday in NW Oregon and SW Washington.  East wind ahead of the front even gusted to 40 mph (50 on the steps?) at Vista House with the usual dense fog up in that area.  Then a breezy south wind kicked up behind the front as a few lines of showers and thunderstorms developed  during the late afternoon.  Here’s a view of 5 of the strikes in Clark County:

KPTV_Default

As of 4pm Portland’s rainfall for the day is 0.64″, which is a new record for May 27th.  The old record is .59″ on May 27, 1990.

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

I almost always work Memorial Day weekend because someone else might want it off or more likely it’s just going to be cool and showery anyway.  I’d much rather “bank” the day and use it during summer.  Plus, no adults around (bosses), so we can be less productive and still not get fired…just kidding, mostly.

Showers continue overnight, then diminish tomorrow as we wait for another vigorous (for late May) system Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Then more showers Wednesday and early Thursday.

After that…finally, a change in the weather pattern.  The weak May storm track lifts a bit north Friday and Saturday, and maybe beyond.  It doesn’t take much to improve our weather in early June, so we’ll easily jump into the 70s over the weekend.  That’s good because the Rose Festival Starlight Parade is Saturday evening and I’m riding in a car with Shauna Parsons.  We don’t want our hair messed up of course.   By the way, make sure you wave.  Not sure how I scored such an exhausting “work day” Saturday, but I’ll take it.

HUGE DISAGREEMENT on models Sunday and beyond.  Take a look at the ECMWF and GFS ensemble charts.  Note that the line “3 JUNE” is Sunday afternoon the 2nd for a time reference:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

 

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

The ECMWF says it’ll be somewhere between 0 and +18 by Monday afternoon.  That’s a high temperature somewhere  between 55 and 90 degrees.   By next Tuesday, the 12z GFS says somewhere between +3 and +23.  That’s 65-95!  What’s going on?  Take a look at the operational 12z ECMWF for next Monday morning, it shows a cool upper low (mainly dry) dropping over the top of a developing ridge (just to our west) and down into the Pacific Northwest.  It’s basically “crashing the ridge”.  The 12z GFS had no such thing, but it’s obvious many of its ensemble members think the ECMWF is correct since the 18z brings the upper low much closer.  I went with the ECMWF solution thus a much cooler forecast….we’ll see.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

 

 

39 Responses to Memorial Day Weather Action

  1. runrain says:

    Power issues in Milwaukee. Anybody else experiencing any electricity problems?

  2. runrain says:

    80° in sight!

  3. Zilbo Zagginz says:

    Mt Bachelor:
    Wind gusts at the top of Summit have reached 150 mph today… and it’s been averaging at least 100 mph for the past six hours. That’s the same as a Category 2 hurricane. It’s really the end of May, right?!?

  4. For my Vancouver station, I have set several rainfall records this month (records since 1996)

    Heaviest one day May rainfall: 1.27″ on the 22nd

    2nd Heaviest one day May rainfall: 1.00″ on the 23rd

    4th Heaviest one day May rainfall: 0.88″ on the 27th

    It’s also the first consecutive 1″+ daily rainfall totals since January 18th+19th, 2012.

    And, I’m not 100% positive on this one yet, but I only needed 0.23″ of rain for it to become my wettest May on record.

    This all follows 7 daily record highs at the beginning of the month.

  5. gidrons says:

    The latest Euro operational shows a northerly flow for the weekend. If this pattern were in January, there would be a lot of happy people on the blog.

  6. JJ97222 says:

    This 7 day forecast should have rain lovers heading for the hills! Lets hope there is no flip flop on this one! Lets upgrade to all eighty’s if we can, let’s be on the hot side!

  7. ArchangelMichael2 says:

    Our original plans were on Saturday to do a drive and look for some property as we need between .3 to 1 acre of land in order to build 2 dome houses.

    We found a kit years ago and fixed up our house we live in now such as remodeled the bathrooms and the kitchen which had a very ugly floor that’s long gone.

  8. ArchangelMichael2 says:

    Whoo hoo! Fall rains are here!………………………………Ummm *Checks calender* Oh it’s still spring!

    What was all that warm and sunny weather about since late March? 3/4ths of this spring was very sunny here and even Feb had about 2 hours of sun in the mornings making for some very beautiful sunrises which MORE then makes up for the lack of a *Winter*.

    Since Sunday night I have had slightly over 1 inch of rain. 0.50 on two nights.

    Saturday was very beautiful here in Silverton and we even BBQ’d some hot dogs and chicken. Our neighbor even painted some chairs!

    Sunday we managed a bike ride in the afternoon thru the neighborhood as it rained a little bit in the morning but cleared up after church to a gorgeous afternoon and several people at church claimed it rained most of the weekend ruining things!

    This weekend was not too hot and not too cold.

    Monday was humid inside but nice outside. Dewpoints sneaked it’s way up to 60F for a bit with a high of 67F before a downburst came in the afternoon pulling the temps back to a more reasonable 61F.

    The wind was very erratic Monday at times like the low end of a south wind event.

    It’s too bad the *good guys* such as Rob Wrath and Timmy Supercell who know a lot are MIA.

  9. schmit44 says:

    5/28/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:76 at PROVOLT SEED ORC(1180 ft)
    Low: 56 at UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft) & ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 28 at ALAKES Haines (7979 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 28 degrees
    DW0460 Sisters (69/41 ) (3251 ft )
    CHEMULT PORTABLE (61/33) (4775 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.65″ at CW2664 Corbett(659ft)
    0.65″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    0.64″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    0.62″ at HARL BUTTE(6071ft)

  10. JJ97222 says:

    Nice heavy mist under the dome right very wet dark and grey

  11. There was at least one distant rumble of thunder out here in BG yesterday, but my parent’s place had more, and heavier rainfall. When I checked in around 7 PM, they had recorded 0.87″ of rain, along with a peak rainfall rate of 3.03″/hour during a heavy shower.

  12. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Forgot to share; double rainbow in Klamath Falls!!

  13. W7ENK says:

    Aside from the 1/2 inch of rain I received overnight, my little area under The Dome has managed to weasel its way around all these heavy showers today. Only a couple brief (less than 1 minute) sprinkles! At a couple of points, the radar looked promising but I was just clipped by the showers. Absolutely no thunder either, unless you count the roar of the National Guard jets screaming overhead as they made their low-altitude fly-overs earlier.

    • JJ97222 says:

      A nice shower now under the dome gutter the new owners gutters overflowed a bit looks like another one coming. I am hoping we dry out soon and warm up especially next weekend at least on Saturday on a whole everything is packed. That nice weather yesterday sure helped out. We are ready for the movers as soon as the kids get out of school. A few 80 degree days would sure feel great it still feels colder than late April.

    • W7ENK says:

      Yeah, I had that shower, too. First and only good one all day! Gutters overflowed, dumped about 1/4 inch in 10 minutes.

      Yesterday’s 0.72″ of rainfall brought my monthly total to 4.14″

    • ArchangelMichael2 says:

      We have that same dome too! Just up the hill always rains twice as hard!

  14. *BoringOregon* says:

  15. Hal in Aims says:

    simultaneous lightning and thunder………wasn’t expecting that…need to go clean up…whew…

  16. cgavic says:

    From sandy, a few showers and sun up ’till 4:30. Then, Thunderstorms, plural, 1/2 in. rain as of 4 pm w/in last 24 hrs.
    Ever since 4:30, HEAVY rain and continueos thunder. I was outside gardening…listening to thunder in the south……now we’ve got it. Soaked to the bone.

  17. runrain says:

    12 car pileup I84 westbound near Corbett. I’ll bet that heavy rain shower around that time had something to do with this. Says there are multiple ambulances heading out to the scene and all lanes westbound are closed.

  18. *BoringOregon* says:

    Thank we got some thing coming in here !!

  19. runrain says:

    Any chance of thunder this afternoon with all these sunbreaks? Cukes are still coming up despite Mayuary, and I’ve taken about 2 dozen Hood strawberries from the garden so far.

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Those chemtrails were working pretty good out there in Vancouver this afternoon!! Yay to weather manipulation!!!

%d bloggers like this: