ECMWF Weekly Maps

Twice a week we receive the monthly run of the ECMWF model.  Here are the upper-level height forecasts broken down by week.  So each map is an average for the week of all the ensemble members.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Notice the cold upper low or at least an open trough is there through at least the next two weeks, pretty much what we see on the operational maps.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

35 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. WEATHERDAN says:

    Ok so we got spoiled by all that unseasonable warmth earlier in the month. Now we are getiing some late spring wetness which is perfecrly normal. Monday may even hit 75 degrees, None of this means a late peaking summer. When all is said and done this May will probably be a little warmer, and a little drier than normal. So far every day this month has at least been 60 degrees. That is above normal. Every spring, even the really warm ones have some days like this wet spell we are in.

  2. Does this mean 2013 is going to be the third late-peaking summer in a row?

  3. Passing shower dumped 0.08″ rain in the past half-hour.

    • Sifton says:

      Yeah, at least IMO. I ‘almost always’ check the radar on crappy days before headin out with the dog & boy did we get soaked! Looking back now at the last 2hrs or so it seemed like it just formed outta nowhere right above us.

  4. JJ97222 says:

    Nice rain storm in milwaukie we will catch up on the rain fall shortage in no time. We are really in trouble the weather dudes are already predicting a nice 3 day weekend next week. We all know how that works.

  5. *BoringOregon* says:

    Just had some dark rotating clouds pushing off to are east !

  6. JJ97222 says:

    We having a blast of hail coming thru the dome must be that autum air coming in a little early. The 3000 foot snow level next week for some early skiing in late May!

  7. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    The sun is out here in BG. A nice breeze too. I know it won’t last but it’s nice none the less!

  8. JJ97222 says:

    Another cold grey morning, I suppose the first of many to come after our brief warm spring window that just passed. Now the lawn furniture sits soaked and will eventually mildew due the to lack of warm sunshine. My eight grade girls are heading to the zoo for a field trip in the cold and rain again that is 3 for 3 years they really don’t want to go.

  9. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    A somewhat rare foggy spring morning out in Hillsboro. Visibility down to 1/4 mile or a bit lower in places.

  10. schmit44 says:

    5/16/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:78 at DW0462 Umatilla( 390 ft)
    Low: 58 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & LAKE OWHEE AND O(2400 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:39 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 30 at TIMOTHY (6099 ft ) & ANTELOPE (6460 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 30 degrees
    BLALOK (77/47 ) (277 ft )
    JOHN DAY RIVER A (76/46) (400 ft)
    CW6893 Madras (71/41) (2365 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.61″ at N7CVZ Corbett(840ft)
    0.58″ at BADGER CREEK(5710ft)
    0.58″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.51″ at Brookings Airpor(459ft)

  11. *BoringOregon* says:

    Did any one else hear a loud sound in the sky around this time a hr ago out here?

  12. Mary Harvey says:

    Your 10:00 news has no sound, again.

  13. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    This is why I haven’t planted my garden outdoors yet. Last year I didn’t until June 28th!

  14. Josh in Sherwood says:

    Payback for Early May.

  15. W7ENK says:

    Too bad that big red blob isn’t over where the big blue blob is in frame 1 instead…

  16. steveofportland says:

    What is the 500mb height anomaly indicative of? In week one, OR/WA coast is -60… does this mean the elevation at which pressure is 500mb will be 60 meters below “normal”?

    • W7ENK says:

      Decameters, 10s of meters, or –600m (~2,000 ft).

    • Basically it means the 500mb pressure line is at a lower altitude than normal, or that air in the lower atmosphere thins more rapidly as altitude increases. This happens when the airmass is colder and denser. Cold, dense air hugs the ground more closely, and that leaves less air in the upper atmosphere. So even though air pressure at the surface can be pretty normal, sometimes even higher than normal, a few thousand meters up the pressure is lower than normal for a given altitude – or conversely, a given pressure level such as 500mb occurs at a lower altitude than normal.

      It’s a bit hard to explain in words, and I’m no professional meteorologist, but that’s my way of thinking about it.

  17. gidrons says:

    built*

  18. gidrons says:

    Ugh. I should have build that greenhouse

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