A Blustery Spring Day! It’s Payback Time

The peak gust of 36 mph at PDX today was the highest (non-easterly) wind gust in about 5 weeks here.  So of course a tree branch fell here or there.

PLOT_Wind_Metro_PeakGusts

Most of the heavier action was to the north in western Washington as mentioned in the previous post.  Take a look at all the lightning strikes in Puget Sound!

lightning5

Down here in our area the only cloud to ground strike was up in Cowlitz County.  In fact we didn’t even see much rain, here are the rainfall totals since midnight:

PLOT_Rain_Metro_Autoplot

Severe storms never developed in far NE Oregon and the watch has been cancelled.

So what’s ahead?  Time to make up for all the dry and mild weather.

We’ve seen a very dry late winter and spring with upper level high pressure often sitting just offshore, keeping the storms that do make it inland quite weak.    That changes for the next 7-14 days.  The persistent upper level height anomaly offshore is gone, replaced by weak westerly flow through at least next Sunday-Monday.  Then models are in pretty good agreement that our first chilly “Upper Level Low” we’ve seen in a month or two.   Take a look at the next 4 weeks of the ECMWF, it’s run out to one month twice a week.  Note the below average upper-level heights for the next 2-4 weeks!

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Rose Festival and Memorial Day are just around the corner!  You can also see the cooler than average weather on the 12z GFS and ECMWF 850mb ensemble charts.  The green line is average for mid-late May, notice most of the time the temperatures are below average:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland
tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Models have attempted to throw up some brief ridging about next Monday, but I didn’t bite on that and only brought up the high temperature into the low 70s that day on our 7 Day Forecast.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

40 Responses to A Blustery Spring Day! It’s Payback Time

  1. I’ve been reading NWS discussions for at least 25 years. Can’t say I’ve ever seen the word “stupid” applied to a weather system before. This is awesome. Next, we will something like “Visible satellite imagery shows a f*cking impressive bent back occlusion over the central puget sound”
    .SHORT TERM…STUPID UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN TAKING
    ITS SWEET TIME MOVING INLAND TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
    TROUGH AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE S WA COAST AT 20Z. RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN
    SHIELD STILL HOLDING TOGETHER EXTENDING FROM THE N COAST ACROSS SW
    WA AT 20Z. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RAIN SHIELD IS STARTING TO
    DEVELOP MORE HOLES WHICH MEANS IT IS PROBABLY STARTING TO WEAKEN.
    THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL DRIVING STEADILY
    EASTWARD OFFSHORE NEAR 45N/130W…AND BOTH GFS/NAM TAKE IT E ACROSS
    NW OREGON THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE DOWNSTREAM
    SHORTWAVE NNE ACROSS W WA THROUGH THIS EVENING…SO MOST OF THE
    INTERIOR SHOULD GET AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Much drier than I thought I would be today so far with just 0.02″. Also, much cooler. Only 56 right now. Unless by some miracle it reaches the upper 60’s today, this will be my first below normal high temp since April 30th.

  3. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    After today’s rain, we are at almost 0.10 inches of rain for the month of May so far.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      Yea, this payback is brutal- near normal temperatures and below average rainfall.

      Sorry Mark, I had to take a shot at you. I know that we won’t be seeing any 80 and sunny days anytime soon (or 70 and sunny for that matter).

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      No problem, just give it time though…2 weeks+ of this and people will be whining.

    • Sifton says:

      I’d like to start whining now if I may………..

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I want rain!! I’m gonna start whining if I see any more of this sun…..

    • No whining here. Just got back from four days back packing in the Deschutes country. Perfect weather. I vote for more of the same!

  4. schmit44 says:

    5/14/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:84 at Rome(4049 ft)
    Low: 52 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft) & UNION(2708 ft) & Roseburg Regiona(525 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:45 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 25 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 48 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (77/29 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.06″ at HERMISTON(550ft)
    0.06″ at Meacham(3724ft)

  5. Masternate says:

    Headed to Detroit Lake this weekend for annual camp out. Hope the showers are on the light side and at night. This has been a total reversal of the past 2 springs and our Blue Berry farm is loving it!! Everyone enjoy natures gift and I’m looking foreword to next winters excitement, or lack there of.

    • MasterNate says:

      And yes, its a very nice evening. Had a fire in the pit and watched the stars come out.

    • David B. says:

      I’m hoping for some good huckleberry crops for once. Last few years have been busts because most of the spring has been too cold for pollinators most of the time. Some rain is good, though, if the summer is super-dry then the crop will be a bust because of drought.

  6. runrain says:

    Beautiful evening tonight and not much wind.

    • runrain says:

      Aaaand, I’m back! Spammed out or something. Or maybe this abrupt switch to cooler weather. The slugs are getting my cuke seedlings and maybe they got my blog postings too! Thanks, Mark!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Looks like it worked this time. There were about 8 of Runrain’s messages in the SPAM folder.

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    A perfect morning for fertilizing the lawn: 43°, calm wind, lots of dew, no rain expected for 24 hours. I’ve been waiting for these conditions for the past few weeks. Looking forward to the sunshine today!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Can’t wait for my grass to die! Eliminates a chore.

      The dandelions will continue feeding the deer for a long time however, thanks to roots like these! Yikes!

      Growing dinner in Bloomington, IN
      I pulled up this gigantic dandelion tap root tonight. It looks more like a parsnip or something! It’s way bigger than the rest of the roots I harvested combined. These have been roasted, ground up, re-roasted, and boiled with water – hello dandelion root coffee!

    • Sifton says:

      lol pappoose!! i always say that to my neighbors too!! with this spotty rain (for god knows how long coming) it’s gonna be awhile still…………

    • vernonia1 says:

      pappoose..we used to dig the horseradish out of the ground & grind it fresh….yummy …but DO NOT do this indoors LOL

  8. W7ENK says:

    The warm sunshine was nice while it lasted. At least the next couple weeks won’t be a complete washout, but it would be nice not to have to manually water my garden for a while.

  9. runrain says:

    It looks like a fall morning out there.

  10. runrain says:

    And a foggy morning!

  11. schmit44 says:

    5/13/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:96 at Ontario Municipa(2188 ft)
    Low: 63 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft) & UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:40 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 30 at Timberline Lodge (7001 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 44 degrees
    Burns Municipal (84/40 ) (4144 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.69″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  12. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    I hope we get some decent rain soon. This system really under-performed.

  13. *BoringOregon* says:

    Just wen’t out side to weed a little in the garden it’s still kind of dry. Now next week when we have a little warmer weather the grass and weeds are going to grow like crazy !

  14. runrain says:

    Testing, testing. Have I been banished??

  15. JJ97222 says:

    Memorial Day Rose Festival could be cool and rainy, Mark that is the safe bet, we are definitely having our daughter’s graduation party indoors I always hope for sunshine but Pourland tradition always runs the table.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      The only celebration we don’t get rain is 4th of July 😉

    • JJ97222 says:

      You are absolutely correct memorial day brings out a lot of blue tarp campers in this neck of woods.

  16. Peak gust 40 mph on my rooftop station. Saw some lightning in Kirkland at my office this afternoon. Some reports of tree damage per NWS. Active day

  17. runrain says:

    OK. Let’s try: the 21k run this weekend downtown will be much more comfortable in cooler weather. Just keep the rain away!

  18. runrain says:

    Well, the Rock n Roll half marathon will at least be comfortable to run in. Not a fan of warm weather for running but I hope the rain can stay away too.

  19. schmit44 says:

    Gonna be in Alaska for the first time in my life first week of June. Looks like I am gonna miss out on the upper low down here. 🙂

  20. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    FIRST!! So… maybe the Rose Festival and Memorial Day rain curses won’t happen? 😆

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