First Marine Layer Forecast Miss Today

9:45pm Wednesday…

It will happen a bunch of times between now and September, we’ll forecast morning clouds and then they will stick around most of the day instead of disappearing.  Our high temperature will be 5-10 degrees cooler than we expected.  A classic (minor) forecast bust in the warm season.  We ended up at 70 instead of 75 at PDX today.  You can see the solid low clouds on the satellite picture below about 3,000′ west of the Cascades this morning:

MarkSat_Tease

Note that even though it was “cool” today, the high was still 3 degrees above average!  By 3pm the clouds were all gone.

If you are looking for more sunshine and warmer temps, tomorrow should be the day.  Temperatures are running several degrees warmer than last night at this time in Corvallis, McMinnville, & Kelso.  Those are the spots the marine air hit first as it poured into the Valley last night.  This weaker evening surge plus warming temperatures in the atmosphere above plus strong subsidence (sinking motions) from a strengthening upper level high directly overhead will squash the marine layer.  Thus what low clouds we get tomorrow should evaporate quickly.  Our 80 degrees forecast might be a couple notches too high, but I’m feeling lucky tonight.

Still looking for a very warm day Friday with mostly sunny skies, 850mb temps around +16 to +17 and no onshore flow.  That should get us up into the mid 80s.

Saturday is a bit of a question mark tempwise due to cloud cover.  I doubt we get low clouds, but probably hazy sunshine from high clouds.  Although morning temps should start in the upper 50s too.

Altogether, we’ll see at least one and possibly 3 more 80 degree days.  So far we’ve seen 3 this month:

MarkHeatwaveStudio_80DegreeTemps_May

What a change from 2010 and 2011 eh?

Some much-needed rain is still on the way for Saturday night through Monday.  We could see more than .50″ even in the driest parts of the metro area.  We’ve seen very little in the past 2+ weeks so it’s time.

Interesting disagreement in the longer range.  The ECMWF & GEM models are both flatter with more westerly flow over us through the middle of next week.  They show real seasonal weather with plenty of cloud cover but more dry than wet after Monday.   The 12z ECMWF 850mb temp ensemble forecast shows temps near average, or just slightly above most of next week:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

 

But the 12z/18z GFS had shown a quick rebound to well above average temps:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

However, the brand new 00z GFS looks more like the ECMWF/GEM (flatter zonal flow), so I’m going with a slower warmup and just average temps for the first part of next week.

I suppose the good news is that no models are showing a cold upper level low or long-term wet/cold pattern that we often see in late spring.  Just back to normal, which isn’t so bad in mid May!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

31 Responses to First Marine Layer Forecast Miss Today

  1. *BoringOregon* says:

    Got some nice looking clouds of to the south of us !!

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
    842 AM PDT FRI MAY 10 2013

    .UPDATE…MODELS THIS MORNING HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVE DAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NAM AND GFS SOUNDING SUGGEST CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES APPROACHING -5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…AND THOSE ARE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS OF 85 DEGREES OR LESS. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR MEDFORD IS 90…WHICH MAKES THINGS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. THE CAVEAT FOR CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE IS AN INVERSION AROUND 800MB…WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT…BUT COULD ALSO EASILY BE OVERCOME. LIKE YESTERDAY…THERE IS LITTLE STEERING FLOW…SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE OF THE AIR MASS VARIETY…WITH NEXT TO NO SHEAR AND LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. THIS WOULD MEAN MOST STORMS…ON THEIR OWN…WILL BE SHORT LIVED. HAVE UPPED POPS ALONG THE CASCADES AND WEST SIDE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEW THINKING. OTHERWISE…HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS.

  3. North Man says:

    What are you guys wagering for next Friday? I’m trying to do a motorcycle track day and rain doesn’t mix too well with that!

  4. W7ENK says:

    A Marine Layer “miss”… isn’t that usually an August thing?

    Either way, I am so grateful for this run of spectacular weather! 🙂

  5. karlbonner1982 says:

    “It will happen a bunch of times between now and September” So early May counts as part of the “warm season” but early October does not? Haven’t you studied your seasonal average temps, Mark?

  6. schmit44 says:

    5/9/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:94 at JOHN DAY RIVER A( 400 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft)
    Low: 63 at Celilo, East of(225 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft) & Newport(30 ft)
    Low: 31 at MCKENZIE (4800 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    MINAM LODGE-PORT (85/36 ) (3575 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.38″ at CW6028 Pine Mtn(6296ft)
    0.34″ at TEPEE DRAW(4735ft)
    0.28″ at DW9630 La Pine(4256ft)
    0.26″ at STRAWBERRY(5590ft)

  7. JJ97222 says:

    The 7 day is looking as thought the sunshine is coming to an end could this be the Rose Festival low that could wipe out the rest of May and June it could be you never know. We are up for a payback on these past few weeks maybe we had summer?? Don’t put away galoshes yet if you haven’t noticed the last weekends festival has wiped out the grass to bare dirt at the water front. Could be bad again at fun center with a little heavy rain. But hey 85 tomorrow soak it up!

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Too early for the pessimism! All we’re looking at is a return to AVERAGE conditions for mid-May, which is hardly Rose Festival Low territory. After the combination of dry Jan-Apr and then a prolonged warm/hot period this early May, we could definitely use a good soaking rain – I hope the SGRS (Stupid Gorge Rain Shadow) doesn’t eat all the moisture trying to come east of the Cascades!

  8. JJ97222 says:

    I am seeing some unwatered lawns starting to dry up in the neighborhoods. Interesting how fast things dry out but it is just amazing weather, just wonderful sitting outside cranking out reports and emails great for the inspiration. Keep it coming!

  9. runrain says:

    Crater Lake will open next, earlier than normal. Only 350″ of snow this year compared to over 500″ on average. Amazing!

  10. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Storms missed me today. There were 2 cells that passed by the area with pretty dark bases; but died upon arrival. I had a couple sprinkles then it cleared up after 20 minutes. I still see puffy cumulonimbus clouds both to the South and East but its already cooling down. Tomorrow I’ll have a good chance maybe.

  11. JJ97222 says:

    My spring flowers all over yard are the best in 5 years they are loving this weather just popping watering in all zones now awesome

  12. *BoringOregon* says:

    Hmmm, Have a weird looking cloud forming behind my house ?

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Timmy! They’re back!
    Love your videos, length is not a problem!
    Curse up a storm!

  14. JJ97222 says:

    Great day sunshine! Got the lawn fertilizer ready for the rain

  15. vernonia1 says:

    Solar eclipse Thurs 2:30 PDT if we cannot see it here is a live feed…….

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/05/130508-solar-eclipse-sun-slooh-space-science/

  16. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    April 2013 in Battle Ground and (Minnehaha)
    Highest High: 77.3, 26th (79.4, 26th)
    Lowest Low: 29.8, 17th (32.9, 17th)
    Highest Wind: SSE 28, 7th (SW 28, 7th)
    Most Precip: 0.72″, 19th (0.57″, 6th+19th)

    Total Precip: 3.08″ (2.66″)

    Avg High: 59.3 (61.6)
    Avg Low: 40.1 (41.9)
    Mean: 49.7 (51.8)

    I’ve told my parents that living out here is like living almost 1,000′ up…and the average temps demonstrate that.

    It also looks like my last frost for my Vancouver station will go down as March 24th, where it will be May 1st for my BG station.

  17. Sandman, Aloha 300' says:

    That forecast sounds like a good spring week next week and looking forward to some more 80 degree days. Sounds like Friday might be interesting

  18. archangelmichael2 says:

    January we came real close to having a big Artic blast but we were just a few hundred miles too short.

    Salt Lake City Utah had so much snow they had to close the zoo which in itself is unheard of! They know how to deal with snow that even rivals many Midwest cities.

  19. archangelmichael2 says:

    This warm spell would’ve been more exciting *Refreshing* if we didn’t have such a dry January-March?

    Even December *except for the failed windstorm that was suppose to last well past midnight with 70-80mph winds in the valleys* we had mostly weak frontal systems that fell apart going to Northern California giving them a run for the money.

    In fact if California didn’t have such a dry fall the floods would’ve rivaled the New Years Day 1996 floods.

    Strangely enough November was our big rainmaker it seemed and California had December as their big rainmaker.

    • W7ENK says:

      Kyle, there was only one person calling for 70-80 mph winds up the Valley with that storm, and they’re not a professional meteorologist. Mark was calling for winds up to 40 mph, but yes, that whole thing did bust pretty hard — I think my peak wind that night was either 11 or 17 mph.

  20. schmit44 says:

    5/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:92 at DW0069 Ferndale( 840 ft) & DW0462 Umatilla(390 ft)
    Low: 64 at JUNIPR(359 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at Newport(30 ft) & YACHTS Yachats(82 ft) & MEARES Cape Mear(1421 ft) & FISH CREEK(7900 ft) & ALAKES Haines(7979 ft)
    Low: 30 at MCKENZIE (4800 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 47 degrees
    COLGATE (83/36 ) (3231 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.84″ at HOYT CREEK(5445ft)
    0.78″ at STRAWBERRY(5590ft)

  21. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    New thunderstorm video. Sorry its 15 minutes long but the storms lasted long themselves! Enjoy. I did as much editing as I could to take out the unnecessary/elongated footage.

  22. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Who’s on first?

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