Warm Weekend Ahead

Summer is arriving early, or at least a preview of summer is.  We made it to 79 in Portland today:

PLOT_Highs_Metro

Troutdale was the warm spot in the metro area with a gusty morning east wind that went calm during the warmest part of the day; that’s always a perfect setup to maximize your high temperature here in the metro area.

The Weekend Highlights:

  • The Ocean Beaches will be in the 75-85 degree range Saturday, possibly Sunday too…Summer!
  • Friday-Sunday = Summer weather inland…Highs 78-85 and sunny
  • Gusty northeast wind for the entire metro area Saturday, possibly Sunday too.
  • Cooling next week, but still above average for early May.
  • No sign of rain or at least a dousing rain for at least another week.

 

More of the same is on the way for the next 3-4 days as an upper level ridge builds just to our west and then north.  This isn’t quite the usual setup where a large ridge settles in over the West Coast.  Instead we get more of what we call a “Rex Block” with an upper level high pinched off by a developing upper level low off the northern California coast.  Here’s the 500mb chart for Sunday morning:

500vor.72.0000

This is often a stable pattern (for several days at least).  In our case we will be in the strong easterly flow between the two. Take a look at the cross-section over Portland from the WRF-GFS model:

kpdx.th

You can see strong easterly wind developing Saturday and Sunday with wind speeds 40-50 kts between 3,000-5,000′ later Saturday and early Sunday.  That’s unusually strong for early May.  That’s a strong downsloping wind that should give the entire metro area a windy day Saturday and probably Sunday too (maybe a bit less that day).  Due to that strong wind, I lowered Saturday’s high temp to 80.

Temperatures will be warmest Sunday as the wind backs off a bit and the atmosphere warms.  Models seem to have settled on a +14 or +15 temp at 850mb that afternoon.  Obviously we have perfect conditions with a well-mixed atmosphere with the east wind, so my chart says 84-87 is likely that day.  I’ll stay with the 85 we’ve been forecasting for a few days.

Beyond Sunday, that upper level low appears to either wander around off the California coast or gradually move closer to us…very uncertain and a real pain to forecast.  Models still show well above average temperatures, but with some sort of onshore flow.  Ahh, the “partly cloudy and 70 degrees” early May forecast.  Seems to be a safe bet for the 2nd part of the 7 Day forecast.  If the low were to move closer to us we could possibly get into a “thunderstormy” pattern, but I don’t see that…for now.

Here are the latest two (18z GFS & 12z ECMWF) ensemble forecast charts:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Both show above average temps through mid May…that cold and showery weather must be waiting in the wings for Rose Festival time???

Speaking of that, here is the monthly run of the ECMWF, separated into weekly maps.  Appears to be some troughing near the end of the month?

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA
I’m off for a day tomorrow so no posts (probably) until Monday afternoon/evening.  Enjoy the early taste of summer!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

83 Responses to Warm Weekend Ahead

  1. Doppler Dave (NE Portland) says:

    Some interesting trivia for today…Seattle was warmer than PDX today (rare, but it happened), and set a new record high of 87 for today’s date. The previous record was 79 degrees set back in 1957. The PDX high of 84 degrees was 7 degrees shy of the record for the date, which was 91 degrees set in 1987.

  2. *BoringOregon* says:

    Thank we got some thing behind my house, take pics and video soon. Just got my new desktop !!!!

  3. Jeff Raetz says:

    http://classic.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KORPORTL110

    ———————————————————————————————
    Averages\Extremes for the month of April 2013

    ———————————————————————————————
    Average temperature = 51.6°F
    Average humidity = 74%
    Average dewpoint = 42.2°F
    Average barometer = 30.138 in.
    Average windspeed = 1.5 mph
    Average gustspeed = 3.4 mph
    Average direction = 221° ( SW)
    Rainfall for month = 2.760 in. (Driest April on record) (Average for April is 3.67”)
    Rainfall for year = 9.819 in. (Driest first 4 months on record)
    Maximum rain per minute = 0.110 in on day 10 at time 13:31
    Maximum temperature = 78.8°F on day 26 at time 17:36
    Minimum temperature = 32.9°F on day 17 at time 05:57
    Maximum humidity = 100% on day 22 at time 04:20
    Minimum humidity = 17% on day 26 at time 16:26
    Maximum dewpoint = 56.5°F on day 04 at time 14:38
    Minimum dewpoint = 23.9°F on day 22 at time 16:45
    Maximum pressure = 30.48 in. on day 17 at time 08:35
    Minimum pressure = 29.52 in. on day 07 at time 04:22
    Maximum windspeed = 13.8 mph from 158°(SSE) on day 07 at time 05:53
    Maximum gust speed = 29.9 mph from 180°( S ) on day 07 at time 06:23
    Maximum heat index = 78.2°F on day 26 at time 17:36

    Avg daily max temp :61.2°F
    Avg daily min temp :42.5°F
    Total windrun = 1085.5miles

    ———————————–
    Daily rain totals
    ———————————–
    00.26 in. on day 4
    00.23 in. on day 5
    00.89 in. on day 6
    00.05 in. on day 7
    00.05 in. on day 8
    00.16 in. on day 10
    00.07 in. on day 12
    00.06 in. on day 13
    00.19 in. on day 14
    00.05 in. on day 15
    00.06 in. on day 16
    00.03 in. on day 18
    00.37 in. on day 19
    00.03 in. on day 21
    00.01 in. on day 28
    00.08 in. on day 29
    00.03 in. on day 30

    *Records since October 2008*

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Klamath Falls just 30 minutes ago. Stray albino donkey lost its way all the way down here….

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    They’re out there…wandering about…

  6. *BoringOregon* says:

    Whats up with any thunderstorms today, I was watching kgw last night and rod hill said we have a good chance of seeing one in our area ?

  7. JJ97222 says:

    Good Day Sunshine!!

  8. schmit44 says:

    ***HAPPY BIRTHDAY MARK NELSEN***

    May 6th is today!!

  9. schmit44 says:

    5/5/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:90 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & CW5302 Roseburg(410 ft)
    Low: 64 at BROOKS(187 ft

    Coldest:
    High:45 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 24 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    EW2055 Prairie C (79/30 ) (3547 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.33″ at CW8876 Williams(1640ft)

  10. paulbeugene says:

    See the typical summertime convective debris, towering altocumulus, etc overhead and to the south…hopefully a precursor for something interesting tomorrow.

    Was 91.9F today at my house. Tomatoes liking this.

  11. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    84 today. Beats my record high (just from the last two years) of 59 lol.

    It was also a record high at my Vancouver station, with records going back to 1996. The old record high was just 72.

  12. *BoringOregon* says:

    Wahhh wind wind go away, all this wind in making me so dry I can’t stand it. But if it makes the weather nice like this all take it any day. Was just watching the, weather channel and they said 80’s for next week to !!

    • JJ97222 says:

      Your so right this weather is better than 12 inches of snow in January unbelievable

  13. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I did have a thunderstorm just to the south by a couple miles off, and was outside listening to the thunder. Heard about 6 booms in total, and one bolt of lightning (cloud to cloud). I tried taking video but by that time the storm was already history, maybe later today some more?

    Sun is back out and temperature is getting warmer here. The day should not be over yet.

  14. orwxguy says:

    Noticed a wind shift in North Bend from easterly to westerly. Temp was 84 at 12:55pm; then wind shifted, with the temperature dropping to 64 in twenty minutes…

  15. philinforestgrove says:

    90 degrees right now in Gleneden Beach. Insane.

  16. JJ97222 says:

    Already 76 in the house today heating up nicely feels like the wood stove is cooking but no hot and sunny outside ahh it is so nice lets crank it up a few more degrees! Get your tomato plants in for some harvest

  17. Jj says:

    Now this is real spring weather looks like it will continue perfect temps wonderful breeze. Outdoor living in the northwest at its best maybe we can keep this going for a while, maybe some 90’s soon!! Keep your spring flowers watered! Isn’t that great to say for a change!

  18. Ron says:

    We live on Clear Creek in the semi-forest where it runs a few degrees cooler than most locations. I was 45f at 7am this morning. In one hour, 25 minutes I jumped to 68f! The east wind picked up and it was like someone turned on the heat. Doors open, listening to the creek. What an amazing morning. Can’t remember the last time I have seen that kind of temperature jump in so short a time. 69f, gusty now as I post this!

  19. halverbk says:

    Alright historic statisticians: when was the last time that the high was on the 80’s at all the major reporting stations on the OR & WA coasts. Usually by the time the north coast has warmed up, Brookings is fogged in.

    75 last night AFTER the hockey game. The ice rink did not melt!

  20. runrain says:

    71° at midnight. Nice!

  21. schmit44 says:

    5/4/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:88 at CW5925 Coos Bay( 49 ft) & BROOKINGS(79 ft) & Tillamook(63 ft)
    Low: 68 at BROOKINGS(79 ft) & CW5925 Coos Bay(49 ft) & Tillamook(63 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 24 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft ) & Lorella (4160 ft ) & CHRISTMAS VALLEY (4360 ft ) & FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 49 degrees
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (85/36 ) (1180 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.22″ at BASQUE HILLS(5080ft)

  22. Amazing day! Felt like July today with a strong, gusty NE wind and a high around 85. And now it’s 69 deg at my house at 10:45. Pay back for the last several cold, wet springs. I’ll take it!

  23. archangelmichael2 says:

    A quarter to Five there was two power blips and my computer refused to boot up again.

    At 5:30 the power went out for good and didn’t come back on until sometime between 6:15 and 6:30 because Dad and I took a short walk until we got sweated out.

    Then not only did the power come back on but so did my computer! Not only did my computer turn back on but FireFox restored my pages as I was listening to some fun video game music and was a bit upset I got interrupted.

    Here is the DOS version of the soundtrack in playlist form. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCel-QCJSGk Putt Putt Goes To The Moon Dos Version.

    Here is the same soundtrack using a high quality midi playback which has a pure sound to it using realistic instruments. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktHIdUeLRSs

    This is my favorite PC game I grew up on as a Kid called Putt Putt Goes To The Moon about a little purple car who goes to Mr FireBirds Fireworks Factory and gets caught in a series of events.

    It’s made by Humongous Entertainment.

    After that game most of HE adventure games like Freddie The Fish/Pajama Sam and Putt Putt the puzzles are random every time you play the game so it’s very rarely the same game twice and there are TONS of clickables.

    • DBurnett in St Helens says:

      Ah, I loved HE games as a kid. Pajama Sam 2 and Spy Fox: Dry Cereal were my favorites.

      But how does your comment relate to the weather? Remember that is a weather blog. Was the power outage weather-related?

  24. runrain says:

    Per NWS extended, looks now like another warm up maybe next week.

  25. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I began having some sprinkles when I finished eat’n my din din @ 4:25pm.

    Nothing convective.. YET. I see one popcorn look’n cloud off to the SE but that’s it.

  26. pappoose in scappoose says:

    These hailstones, roughly baseball size or larger, impacted areas around the city of Modena, Italy on May 3, 2013.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Don’t forget, there was a also a tornado in that area too!! Not to mention sections of France, and Switzerland had storms that day.

  27. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    KLMT – 12z GFS.

    T’storm update: 0.71″ on Monday?? Mkay, that’s crazy.

    On another note, convection is consistent if anything on every run. Something will develop soon.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Seeing a few cumulus clouds to my east. Looks promising. but a part of me is telling me that realistic chances for storms start tomorrow. Meanwhile, I’m logging off for a few hours… be back soon.

    • runrain says:

      Keep us up to date on the convective activity, Timmy. We’ll live vicariously thru you!

  28. runrain says:

    Wind broke my patio umbrella in 2 places 😦

  29. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    The east winds have really picked up here in the last hour or so, sustained 5-15 mph with occasional 25 mph gusts – impressive for my wind-sheltered location. Currently 77.6°/DP36°.

  30. schmit44 says:

    5/3/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:92 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft)
    Low: 65 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:44 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 22 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    Lorella (75/23 ) (4160 ft )

  31. Garron near Washington Square says:

    It’ll be a hard pill to swallow (for me) if that wandering low sets up shop after this coming week and stays until July 5th. But, with that said, these really amazing days help offset the gloomy months we tend to endure to me. No humidity, nice breeze, 75-90 degrees during the daytime, cools off at night, absolutely the clearest skies. Anywhere else I’ve lived or visited, you have way more issues either windy-dusty, pollution, or humid conditions on nicer days. I really appreciate the nice days here, because we earn them the hard way, but IMO they are among the most amazing nice days of just about anywhere in the world.

    I hope everyone gets out this weekend that enjoys the sun, bbq’s, camping, hiking, fishing, boating, beaches, picnic’s with family, warm evening walks, eating outside at a nice restaurant on a day like this. For all those that enjoy the cooler, cloudier rainy goodness of living here, it’ll probably be back after this brief commercial break. Just head to the theater this weekend, or take a trip to Mount Hood and play in the snow while it’s in the 70’s up there. Bon Apetite!

    • WhiteEagle - Garden Home / SW Portland says:

      Amen, Garron!!! When the weather is like this in the PacNW, it’s one of the most beautiful places on Earth.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      White Eagle-

      And from experience I can say that Garden Home is truly one of the best places to enjoy said weather. I really miss my old neighborhood! Take care of her for me, I hope to move back there in a few years.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      I’m amazed that the PNW hasn’t had more fantasy-type movies filmed here…we have the perfect enchanted magical landscape for it!

  32. JJ97222 says:

    Lawn cut, cold buds in the fridge carne asada marinating the only thing missing is the pool in San Antonio but the weather is spectacular!!! Lot of freinds coming over should be fun, this is heaven sent weather keep it coming Mark!

  33. *BoringOregon* says:

    Looks like some thing is starting to build south east of mt hood ?

  34. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    12z GFS for Klamath Falls is showing a juicy thunderstorm on Monday 05/06, 0.56″ inches!! That’s with a high of 72F. Definitely convective precip if I ever saw any.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      And previous 2 runs also have hinted convective precip before.. So it’s consistent. Only difference is that 12z just gives me more excitement 😉

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Inside the 3-5 day window!
      When thunder roars, head outdoors!!

    • runrain says:

      When it sounds like thunder hoofs, head for the roofs!! Er, maybe not…

    • runrain says:

      *thundering

  35. W7ENK says:

    EXTREME CAUTION WARNING WATCH STATEMENT NOTICE ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    1126 AM PDT FRI MAY 3 2013

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/10263483

  36. My back lilac, which is largely shaded, thus behind the others in the yard, took a huge hit with the freeze the other morning. Lots of dead vegetation. The others were further along and seem to have done better. The low only dipped to 31, so it wasn’t excessively cold, but obviously enough to do some damage.

    That being said, the lawn is still growing like a weed! The front was like a field but mowed now!

  37. I may be getting ahead of the calendar a bit, but this could be the first year since 2004 when we have a combination of a warm May/June and a cool September. It’s bound to happen some time. We’re also due for a cool August one of these years. It would definitely feel strange to have an early-peaking summer after the past 5-6 years, though…

  38. steveofportland says:

    There are some pretty weird shapes on the radar now… and no rain. Are those all insects?

  39. schmit44 says:

    5/2/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:89 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 64 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:47 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 16 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft ) & HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 57 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (73/16 ) (5000 ft )

  40. ashley watson says:

    mark you are right. i guess it just seems while the rest of the country and world’s weather is getting more exciting ours dosen’t really seem to be following suit. that blasted pacific ocean and cascade mountains!!!!!!!

  41. pappoose in scappoose says:

    You enjoy the summer taste as well, Mark!
    Keep the fancy/bright outfit on when wheeling around on the bike this weekend.
    And don’t let the duck pond dry up!

  42. ASHLEY WATSON says:

    I UNDERSTAND WAHT MARK IS SAYING BUT GETTING 1/2 INCH OF SNOW AT THE END OF MARCH IS PRETTY PATHETIC. MAYBE IN MAY IT WOULD BE NOTEWORTHY. ALSO THAT CHRISTMAS STORM WAS A RECORD FOR THE DATE. GETTING 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW ON ANY GIVEN DECEMBER OR JANUARY DAY ISN’S REALLY THAT MUSCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT EVEN FOR OUR STANDARDS. NOW IF IT WAS 16 INCHES THEN WE COULD TALK. OUR DRY WEATHER RECORD MEANS NOTHING. AT LEAST NOTHING EXCITING. I KNOW ARE WEather is pretty boring but the midwest and east coast are getting crazy extreme weather. don’t you think some of that crazy extremeness should translate to us as well. i don’t think my expectations are too high. i think the weather powers to be are getting there face farted in for some unknown reason though.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      You’re missing the point, the latest ever snowfall for any one spot is a similar record to any other location, regardless of the date. And if I recall there was 10″ of snow on the ground Christmas Day, that has never occurred in Portland (on Christmas). And It’s not possible to get snow here in May, we live in too mild of a climate for that.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Having 16 inches in 24 hours even for Klamath Falls would be pretty darn impossible. What we had in 2008 is probably the best you are going to see living here throughout the rest of your life.

      BY THE WAY, I THINK YOUR CAPS ARE ON WHEN YOU TYPE!!

  43. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like “thunderstormy” patterns!

  44. ASHLEY WATSON says:

    man just looking at the historic cold and snow in the midwest right now makes me want to high tail it out of the pacific northwest even sooner. kansas city could get up to 4 inches of snow. that would break there all time record of 1.7 inches for the month of may set in 1907. they only forecast a high of 35 tomorrow which whold shatter there all time record low high for may of 43. this is crazy stuff!!!!MANY PLACES IN THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS ARE HAVING SIMILAR RECORDS. AND GUESS WAHT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST??? A BIG FAT NOTHING. NO HISTORIC STUFF. JUST HEAT AND DRYNESS. IS THERE LIKE A WALL OR FORCE FIELD THAT STOPS US FROM GETTING HISTORIC STUFF LIKE THAT? IT SEEMS NO MATTER WHAT TIME OF YEAR WE JUST CAN’T GET IN ON SOME OF THE EXTREMES THE MIDWEST AND EAST IS GETTING. i KNOW WE CAN”T BE AS COLD AND SNOWY AS THEM BUT WHY CAN’T DOWNTOWN PORTLAND GET LIKE 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON APRIL 15TH. THAT WOULD BE HISTORIC. I AM NOT ASKING FOR A FOOT OF SNOW IN APRIL JUST SOMETHING HISTORIC FOR US. WHAT ABOUT 16 INCHES IN ONE DAY IN DECEMBER OR JANUARY. THAT WOULD BE HISTORIC. WHAT ABOUT 0 DEGRESS AT THE AIRPORT. THAT WOULD BE SOMEWAHT HISTORIC. i AM NOT ASKING FOR THE SAME STUFF THE MIDWEST HAS SNOWFALL WISE AND TEMP WISE JUST HISTORIC FOR OUR STANDARDS. SOME SAY WE WILL GET OUR TURN SOON BUT THE MIDWEST AND EAST COAST HAVE HAD LIKE 100 TURNS AND WE HAVE LIKE 1. THERE IS SOMETHING THAT KEEPS US FROM GETTING ANYTHING GOOD AND LETTING THEM HAVE ALL THE GODDIES. IF WE COULD FIGURE OUT WHAT IT IS THAT WOULD BE GOOD. WE WOULDN’T BE ABLE TO GHANGE IT BUT ATLESAT IT WOULD ANSWER A LOT OF QUESTIONS

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      1. Portland had it’s latest measurable snow just 13 months ago
      2. Portland had it’s snowiest Christmas ever just a few years ago
      3. Much of the Willamette Valley has seen it’s driest January-April ever.
      We have a mild climate with very few extremes. We get the goodies every 10-20 years.

    • W7ENK says:

      Uhmm… that “wall” you’re asking about? It’s called the Rocky Mountains. Take it up with Canada.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      You just answered your own question/statement. The midwest has all the “goddies.” We just need to pray more, apparently.

    • Check ebay for some caps lock grease, I hear its a lot cheaper there than at K-Mart.

    • gidrons says:

      ASHLEY JUST WONDERING WHERE YOU WENT TO SCHOOL AT

    • ThunderCloud - North Plains says:

      We actually DO have a “wall” AND a “force field” here in the PNW.

      Rockies = massive wall.
      Pacific Ocean = massive force field.

      The Pacific has a huge damping effect on our climate, it softens the blow of any extreme cold or warmth. Honestly, it is just as much a blessing as it is a curse. It makes any exciting weather that much more enjoyable.

  45. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    First?!?!

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