A Taste of Summer For Early May

It appears that we are headed for an unusually long period of warm and dry weather.   Unusual because it’s rare to have a solid week or more in early May with temps in the 75-85 degree range, and mostly sunny or sunny skies.

The Highlights

  • There is no rain in sight…at least not through the middle of NEXT week.  Every month so far this year has been drier than average, and April ended up a little drier than normal too.
  • Mostly sunny or sunny skies are likely starting tomorrow for at least 6 days!  Maybe longer
  • Temperatures warm dramatically tomorrow, and continue rising through the weekend
  • This weekend will feel like summer; temps should top out in the mid 80s both days

 

Technical info:

I had 3 days off and during that time it was interesting to see how the maps changed…more of the same progression we’ve seen in the models the past few weeks.  Specifically, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build more directly over the West Coast but then ends up back in its favored position a ways offshore.  This leads to a very warm 7 Day forecast and then we have to back off a bit.   Last Thursday and Friday both the GFS and ECMWF were showing 850mb temps (celsius temp near 5,000′) up around +14 to +17 for tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon.  Instead it’s going to be around +5 to +7.  That’s a huge change.  In the end (for the rest of this week) it won’t matter to the average person because the ridge is still close enough to give us weak offshore low-level flow and warm sunshine.

 

So for the next few days we do have the upper level ridge gradually edging closer, thus the warming atmosphere overhead; we go from that +6 or so tomorrow afternoon to +11-+14 Friday-Saturday afternoon.  Very good agreement on all models with that.  Then a slight change.  Models are forecasting a bit of a “Rex Block” Sunday through much of next week.  That tends to be a very stable upper-level pattern with an upper high centered north of an upper-level low to its south.  The orientation of the upper high north of us may give us good offshore flow Saturday through early next week as well.   Notice the 00z WRF-GFS cross-section showing very little low level moisture until next Tuesday-Wednesday too, thus the very sunny 7 Day forecast:

kpdx.x.th

notice the time goes from right to left, so the right side of the chart is Sunday morning and the left side is Wednesday morning.

The ECMWF does go for more of the offshore ridging instead of a rex block setup over us earlier next week so it isn’t quite as warm.  Here’s the 00z GFS ensemble 500mb forecast for NEXT Wednesday:

m500za_f180_bg_NA

and the 12z ECMWF map for the same time:

m500za_f192_bg_NA

 

Either way, one thing is certain, our drier than normal spring weather is going to continue.  For you gardeners, it’ll be time to start watering this weekend, especially those new plants you’ve put in.  Enjoy the sunshine!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 

40 Responses to A Taste of Summer For Early May

  1. JJ97222 says:

    It’s gonna be a hot weekend sun lovers rejoice! Watered the lawn and flowers first time this year can’t remember doing this early for a long time. The clay soil is already showing some cracks from the dryness awesome!

  2. JJ97222 says:

    It gonna be a hot weekend sun lovers rejoice!

  3. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Nearly cracked the 80° mark this afternoon; made it up to 79.4° on my home station. Didn’t think it was gonna be this warm today, but I’ll take it!

  4. archangelmichael2 says:

    I am done now. Enjoy the reading! 🙂

    High of 83F with wonderful sunshine till now with high clouds or is it smoke? moving in.

    They kind of have a slightly brown bottom so it might be farmers burning as there doesn’t appear to be any weak looking systems offshore sneaking in.

  5. archangelmichael2 says:

    Even in the 30s the same crap continues as articles come forth.

    In fact I’d hate to be a fisherman up. in the Artic during the 20s.

    http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70C15F73B5D167A93CAAB178FD85F418385F9&scp=6&sq=glaciers&st=p

    Here is the site the comment came from.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/

    Pete says:
    March 17, 2008 at 6:09 am

    That’s a great link to the NYT search engine, Michael. Wish I had a subscription to read the whole articles! Some of the first paragraphs have startling similarities to today’s headlines!

    This one caugh my eye from 1930:

    A NEW CHAPTER WRITTEN BY THE GLACIER

    WORD comes from Switzerland that the Alpine glaciers are in full retreat. Out of 102 glaciers observed by Professor P.L. Mercanton of the University of Lausanne and his associates more than twothirds have been found to be shrinking.

    http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50B16FC3D5F11738DDDA80A94DA415B808FF1D3&scp=44&sq=warming+arctic&st=p.

    If the date was changed to 1990 it goes exactly word to word with the media shrills today.

  6. archangelmichael2 says:

    Then the next year 1923 the drama continues with the 1920s being very bad years for fishing causing some concerns.

    The New York Time (AKA: The Old Gray Lady), America’s Newspaper of Record, confirmed the story on Sunday February 25, 1923.

    REPORT THE ARCTIC IS GETTING WARMER; Explorers and Fishermen Find Climate Moderating About Spitzbergen. FIRST NOTED ABOUT 1918 Old Glaciers Have Disappeared — Changes in Flora and Fauna.

    February 25, 1923, Sunday
    Section: EDITORIAL SECTION, Page E6, 696 words

    The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the Eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard of temperatures in that part of the earth. Old glaciers have disappeared and land once covered with field ice is bare.

    http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00F13F7395516738DDDAC0A94DA405B838EF1D3

  7. archangelmichael2 says:

    Let’s hope this drought doesn’t continue till summer or every other story the media shrills will cry *Global Warming* and act all stupid instead of providing the facts.

    In fact
    Here is an interesting article of Global Warming in the 1920s.

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      In 2011 they blamed Global Warming on the April tornado outbreaks, now they are blaming Global Warming for the LACK of tornadoes in 2013. Make sense? NO. It does not make sense.

  8. runrain says:

    A mention of thunder in the long range for next week. Donkey time!!!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      NCEP points towards T-Storm’s in the 8-14 day window.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      ^ This guy right here thinks a realistic t’storm forecast is between the 3-5 day window. 😉

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      We must be relentlessly on watch.

      When thunder roars, head outdoors!

  9. schmit44 says:

    5/1/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:83 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft) & Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft)
    Low: 55 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:34 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 6 at FOSTER FLAT (5000 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 52 degrees
    DW5789 Eagle Poi (83/31 ) (1463 ft )
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (80/28) (1180 ft)
    KIRK (64/12) (4519 ft)
    FOSTER FLAT (58/6) (5000 ft)

  10. schmit44 says:

    MAY 2-6 HEATWAVE CONTEST FOR PORTLAND OREGON.. DEADLINE IS TONIGHT
    **Submit your predicted high/low temps for the next 5 days. I will announce the winner monday night
    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/MAY2013_HEATWAVE/add.php

  11. N3EG says:

    I’ve been smelling blown forecast since two days ago. I don’t think it’s going to happen.

  12. GTS1K' says:

    I really like a “…QUASI-REX BLOCK PATTERN…”

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Sun, sun, sun, here it comes…

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    900 AM PDT WED MAY 1 2013

    THE REAL WARM UP WILL COME THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW RETROGRADES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST…SETTING UP A QUASI-REX BLOCK PATTERN AND
    DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW. GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE COME PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION…SO WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 80S INLAND BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO WARM UP THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND…SYNOPTIC OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERPOWER THE SEA BREEZE. IN FACT THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE DOWNRIGHT GUSTY ON THE CASCADE AND COAST RANGE RIDGES…AS WELL AS THE COASTAL CANYONS. GIVEN THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL IT APPEARS TO BE A SUNNY AND WARM WEEKEND FROM THE COAST TO THE CASCADES.WEAGLE

    LONG TERM…AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TO WARM UP THE COAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH
    SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS TAKES US ABOVE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT MOS HAS A HISTORY OF UNDERDOING THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THESE
    OFFSHORE FLOW EVENTS…ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN IS SUCH THAT IT APPEARS LIKELY 70S AND LOWER 80S WILL EXTEND TO THE COAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND IF ALL COMES TOGETHER RIGHT. AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING NEAR CALIFORNIA MAY TRY TO PUSH FAR
    ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK…

  14. …27.6 last night before my sending unit died….

  15. gidrons says:

    The latest Euro shows a bit of a rex block situation. There could be thunderstorms next week too, with a better chance the further south you go.

  16. pappoose in scappoose says:

    It’s all right!

  17. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    31 in Hillsboro this morning, maybe lower when all is said and done. Not a record.

    62 this morning in the house this morning. Not often I need to use the heat and the AC within three days of each other. I refuse to do so however! So the heat has been off since around the beginning of April.

  18. W7ENK says:

    Is this heaven??

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Only for a short period of time. Soon it will be hell 😉

  19. runrain says:

    Let’s all move to Amarillo! Yesterday’s high was 97 deg. Tonight’s forecast calls for snow!!

    • David B. says:

      Yikes! I lived in New Mexico as a teen and the most dramatic day-to-day change I remember was upper 70s one day and snow the next. I think that was probably late April.

      I remember one Thanksgiving vacation week (I think it was 1976) that involved both playing outdoors in shirtsleeves in mid-70s temperatures and a morning low in the minus 20s. But that change took most of a week to kick in.

      Remember seeing a fair number of dead garden ornamentals (which would normally be able to survive -20s just fine) the next spring, winter came on just too suddenly that year!

  20. karlbonner1982 says:

    Uh-oh…I smell a DROUGHT coming on by the middle of the summer!

    • W7ENK says:

      Now now, springtime sunshine is no reason to get all melodramatic… 😆

    • JJ97222 says:

      We need one! Just to balance the really wet years I have never heard of a dust bowl in Portland but then again last year people were screaming for rain last fall and they got it did not stop for months! Let’s sit back and all enjoy the drought just like we did 2009,2010,2011…… The wet years!

    • Ryan (Walnut Grove) says:

      I believe the snow pack in the Cascades was average and not dramatically behind. So long as the snow pack is good in the mountains we shouldn’t have drought issues.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Remember the podcast where Mark said “it’s nice to have a flood”? He should go on and say this summer “it’s nice to have a drought every once in a while.”

    • JJ97222 says:

      Right on the money lets face it when we get nice long hot summers that include spring you remember them I still remember the long summer in the late 60’s my dad had a ski boat, that summer was so much fun on the river,they are memorable when they happen!

  21. I like this forecast! We deserve this after the last 3 years….

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