First 80 For Some; More Warmth to Come

6pm Friday…

Salem hit 81 degrees this Friday afternoon; making it the warmest day so far this spring.  80 degree highs were also recorded at McMinnville and Aurora.

PLOT_Highs_ORWA

Here in Portland we topped out at 78 degrees, once again the warmest day so far this season.

The decent, dare I say “nice”, forecast for the weekend continues.  Sure, it’ll drop 10-15 degrees from today over the course of the weekend, but it’s a huge improvement over the cool and showery weather we’ve seen each weekend this month.

We might see a sprinkle late Saturday night or early Sunday morning as a weak system drags across the area, but the main chance for rain is 24 hours later.  That will be Sunday night and early Monday morning.

The forecast keeps looking warmer; models today have speeded up the departure of the cool trough early next week.  We are already getting warmer north-northeast flow by Tuesday afternoon if they are correct.

Both the 12z/18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF show 850 mb temps in the +12 to +14 range next Wednesday afternoon and +14 to +16 range Thursday.  That’s with a thermal trough west of the Cascades and easterly low level flow.  According to my chart for April that would give us 80/83 degree highs for PDX Wed/Thur.  The chart for May is warmer:  82/87.  So I stayed a little on the low end going for 80/83 on the 7 Day forecast.

Agreement on models is pretty good through Thursday, then is all over the place.  Note the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

I see by the end of next week it’ll either be -5 or +21…extremely low confidence on any one solution.

and the 12z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

same thing, but not as extreme.

Enjoy the (mainly) dry weekend…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

14 Responses to First 80 For Some; More Warmth to Come

  1. paulbeugene says:

    Fairbanks avg temp in April this year 17F…smashing old record of 20.75F set in 1985.

    Put grocery bags on the tomatoes for tonight…gonna be frost tonight down here in EUG.

    Then a nice spell of mild/warm weather coming up.

  2. W7ENK says:

    Hit 81 here in Milwaukie yesterday.

    Perfect.

  3. paulbeugene says:

    Been a long time since I posted….
    Impressed with the nice/warm weather we have had down here in Eugene, in the past few days. Got to 81.9F on my thermometer yesterday.
    Operational GFS suggests quite warm weather once again next week….low-mid 80s for high temps..followed by normal/cool spell, then mild again.
    This may end up being the warmest/mildest late April-early May stretch in a long time, very unlike the neg PDO/la Nina springs we have had lately. Am getting those tomatoes into the ground this weekend.
    That being said…
    I have no belief that warm mid-Spring weather leads to a long warm/hot Summer. Hopefully we will get some good convective patterns as we go through the next couple months.

  4. Sweetness! I love it when even the models have a warm bias… 😆

  5. JERAT416 says:

    Send the rain to California. Copy + Paste today. That’s all.

  6. JJ97222 says:

    Outdoor movies tonight, what a great happy day!

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    My weather station here at home topped out at 80.2° this afternoon (Garden Home/Multnomah area). Currently 74°, what a beautiful evening.

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    76 / 31 today!

    Very DRY air also, dropped to 15% humidity and 24 dew point at 5pm. Conditions look a little “smokey or hazy” outside too.

  9. gidrons says:

    Great post Mark

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