Salem hit 81 degrees this Friday afternoon; making it the warmest day so far this spring. 80 degree highs were also recorded at McMinnville and Aurora.
Here in Portland we topped out at 78 degrees, once again the warmest day so far this season.
The decent, dare I say “nice”, forecast for the weekend continues. Sure, it’ll drop 10-15 degrees from today over the course of the weekend, but it’s a huge improvement over the cool and showery weather we’ve seen each weekend this month.
We might see a sprinkle late Saturday night or early Sunday morning as a weak system drags across the area, but the main chance for rain is 24 hours later. That will be Sunday night and early Monday morning.
The forecast keeps looking warmer; models today have speeded up the departure of the cool trough early next week. We are already getting warmer north-northeast flow by Tuesday afternoon if they are correct.
Both the 12z/18z GFS and the 12z ECMWF show 850 mb temps in the +12 to +14 range next Wednesday afternoon and +14 to +16 range Thursday. That’s with a thermal trough west of the Cascades and easterly low level flow. According to my chart for April that would give us 80/83 degree highs for PDX Wed/Thur. The chart for May is warmer: 82/87. So I stayed a little on the low end going for 80/83 on the 7 Day forecast.
Agreement on models is pretty good through Thursday, then is all over the place. Note the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:
I see by the end of next week it’ll either be -5 or +21…extremely low confidence on any one solution.
and the 12z GFS ensemble chart:
same thing, but not as extreme.
Enjoy the (mainly) dry weekend…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen