Forecast Keeps Getting Warmer; Maybe 80 Friday?

We hit 75 in Portland today, a good 7 degree jump from yesterday due to an easterly “offshore” wind flow.  That east wind even made it to some spots on the coast;  Tillamook made it to at least 75 as well and Astoria hit 71.  Very nice for late April!  Here are the metro highs:

PLOT_Highs_Metro

Remember last week when we had to back off the 80 degree forecast for today?  Lots of complaints that the forecast is “always” doing that.  Well in the case of this week we’re going back the other way, so the forecast CAN get warmer.  Why?  Models have backed off and slowed down the cold weekend trough approaching and that prolongs our little warm spell.

Upper level heights actually rise (instead of falling) the next two days and temperatures warm in the atmosphere as a result.   The 12z and 18z NAM both show 2-4 degrees surface temp warming total through Friday.  The GFS is similar.  That would put us around 77-80 degrees by Friday.  Maybe I have a cool bias and should have gone with that 80 after all?  Just a couple of days later instead.  The 12z WRF-GFS says we hit 80 Friday here in Portland.

Big picture:

  • Two more days of sunny or mostly sunny skies.  Even Saturday could be mostly sunny
  • Temperatures will reach between 75-80 degrees both afternoons
  • Saturday is looking like a nice day now as the cooler/showery weather is pushed back a day
  • Not much rain Sunday, just much cooler and more cloud cover

 

The ensemble charts sure say spring!  Warm to cool Sunday/Monday then back to above average.

12z GFS…

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

12z ECMWF…

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

32 Responses to Forecast Keeps Getting Warmer; Maybe 80 Friday?

  1. marcus.winston.965@facebook.com says:

    18z GFS suggesting 80’s may2-3???? We shal see!!:)

  2. runrain says:

    Nice, sunny day here in Reedsport. Some high clouds out on the horizon.

  3. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    74 / 25 in Klamath Falls yesterday! That’s a 49 degree diurnal change.

    High should be 77-80 today.

  4. schmit44 says:

    4/25/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:84 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 55 at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:44 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at Sand Creek (US 9 (4525 ft ) & KIRK (4519 ft ) & MAZAMA (4596 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    CHRISTMAS VALLEY (74/19 ) (4360 ft )
    Lorella (73/18) (4160 ft)

  5. karlbonner1982 says:

    Mark, do you realize it’s been over a week since you mentioned recording the new episode of the Weather Podcast and it’s STILL not up on the page?

    I hope it’s not too loaded with “current events,” because the lag between recording and posting would render them largely obsolete!

  6. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Topped out at 77° today… I could get used to this!

  7. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    Hazy is the word of the day here

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    First day since 03/30 to have 70’s!!

    I’m sure theres some who prefer clouds and rain.. But I love it!

  9. JJ97222 says:

    What a fantastic day sun feels great vitamin D all around!

  10. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Looks awesome! Thanks for the update Mark. 😀

  11. schmit44 says:

    4/24/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:86 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 58 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:42 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 12 at HEREFORD (3599 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    EW2055 Prairie C (71/16 ) (3547 ft )

  12. W7ENK says:

    I know of somebody who’s gonna cry over this… 😆

  13. JJ97222 says:

    Everbody should be doing a happy dance with this weather! Wouldn’t 85 be nice on Friday

  14. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Wind this morning really did aid in quicker warming from the low temperature. KLMT was 33 degrees at 4:53am, and quickly went 50+ just 4 hours later. Wow. High of 67 today, and highs climb into the low-mid 70’s next 3 days.

    I will enjoy as much of this as possible.

  15. Robin says:

    Mark Nelson!!! Can you speculate on the extended forecast..like weekend after next May 3,4,5,6 ish? We are embarking on a roadtrip adventure and are very curious what weather we could see along the southern Oregon coastline?

  16. lol I see what you did there Mark.

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