Forecast Keeps Getting Warmer; Maybe 80 Friday?

April 24, 2013

We hit 75 in Portland today, a good 7 degree jump from yesterday due to an easterly “offshore” wind flow.  That east wind even made it to some spots on the coast;  Tillamook made it to at least 75 as well and Astoria hit 71.  Very nice for late April!  Here are the metro highs:

PLOT_Highs_Metro

Remember last week when we had to back off the 80 degree forecast for today?  Lots of complaints that the forecast is “always” doing that.  Well in the case of this week we’re going back the other way, so the forecast CAN get warmer.  Why?  Models have backed off and slowed down the cold weekend trough approaching and that prolongs our little warm spell.

Upper level heights actually rise (instead of falling) the next two days and temperatures warm in the atmosphere as a result.   The 12z and 18z NAM both show 2-4 degrees surface temp warming total through Friday.  The GFS is similar.  That would put us around 77-80 degrees by Friday.  Maybe I have a cool bias and should have gone with that 80 after all?  Just a couple of days later instead.  The 12z WRF-GFS says we hit 80 Friday here in Portland.

Big picture:

  • Two more days of sunny or mostly sunny skies.  Even Saturday could be mostly sunny
  • Temperatures will reach between 75-80 degrees both afternoons
  • Saturday is looking like a nice day now as the cooler/showery weather is pushed back a day
  • Not much rain Sunday, just much cooler and more cloud cover

 

The ensemble charts sure say spring!  Warm to cool Sunday/Monday then back to above average.

12z GFS…

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

12z ECMWF…

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen