Sun and Warm Weather Is Here!

What a huge change in the past 24 hours!  We’ve from gloomy, cool, & damp to bright, sunny, & warm.  The long-awaited dry spell is here:

  • Dry weather is likely for at least 5 days, possibly through Saturday…possibly
  • Warmest weather should be Wednesday…somewhere in the mid 70s.
  • Onshore flow brings cooler temps and/or more cloud cover Thursday/Friday.

Hard to believe that 5 days ago models were showing an upper-level ridge building directly over us today through Wednesday.  Instead it has decided to park itself out around 140W, well offshore:


That location is just about the “sweet spot” in winter that you want to get arctic air moving south into the Pacific Northwest on the back side of the upper level high.  In fact today’s dewpoints in the 20s with a NORTHERLY wind instead of more easterly is an obvious indication that a “cool” Canadian air mass has descended on the Pacific Northwest.  That’s similar to an October east wind period when we get frosty mornings and  cool afternoons in the 60s.  The huge difference is that we get as much energy from the sun in late April as we do in mid August!  Far different from October.  So our temps will jump the next two days by 7-10 degrees.

Nighttime temps will remain chilly; those areas that go calm will drop well down into the 30s.

I was tempted to make Thursday and Friday’s temps much cooler on our 7 Day forecast due to onshore flow developing ahead of an approaching upper-level trough.  But both our RPM and the WRF-GFS aren’t getting too crazy with the low-level moisture yet, so I left it alone.  Just be aware that Tuesday-Wednesday are the guaranteed nice days, Thursday-Friday are a bit up in the air.

Models are keying in on a cold trough swinging through the Pacific Northwest early next week (Sunday-Monday).  The ECMWF was very chilly and now the 18z GFS looks real cool as well.  So yes, another cool and possibly wet weekend is on the way.  Here are the two latest GFS/ECMWF ensemble charts:




That 18z GFS sure says SPRING with the up and down troughs and ridges doesn’t it?

Here are the 4 weekly maps from last night’s ECMWF monthly run:





Nothing that really sticks out beyond the 2nd week.

Enjoy the warm spring weather the next few days!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

28 Responses to Sun and Warm Weather Is Here!

  1. Sifton says:

    Ok, who gets a star by his/her name on the calling of high clouds today, hmmmmm?!

  2. A chilly 32 degrees here this morning with crystal clear skies to go with it.

  3. schmit44 says:

    4/22/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:81 at Brookings (US 10( 150 ft)
    Low: 54 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    High:23 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 14 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    PROVOLT SEED ORC (76/34 ) (1180 ft )

  4. says:

    00z GFS chilly trough just in time for the weekend????:/

  5. W7ENK says:

    It’s about time we got another decent dry stretch that coincides with some free time at home! I’m having the kid mow my lawn on Wednesday afternoon, the grass should be dry by then, but unfortunately it’s more than ankle high right now…

  6. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Nice update Mark!

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Im with you Jesse, Erik sticks his nose where it doesn’t belong. I bet Erik was one of those guys that stood in line for 3 hours when a new transformers movie came out and then gave a standing ovation when it was over. Erik, get a girl or something you tool.

    • Says the tool that waited until 12:30 AM to make his insult 😆

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Erik made no comment towards neither of you two.

      Gee its so loud in here! Maybe High Deserts make people crazy.. :XD

    • W7ENK says:

      Oh c’mon MatyRay, you’re a bigger man than this…

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I think Feminine is the right word for that Erik :XD

    • High Desert Mat says:

      Um try getting a recent pic u troll. That was 6 years ago for growing weed. Big deal. And Timmy I’d love to show u feminine if I ran into you. Little bitches. Get a life and get laid already you mommas boys.

    • W7ENK says:


      Can dish it out, but can’t take it, huh?
      I see how you roll… loser.

  7. karlbonner1982 says:

    It’s 45F and clear/windless in The Dalles at 10pm…a beautiful crisp Aptober night!

  8. runrain says:

    Low 60’s this weekend still beats the low 50’s last weekend!

  9. Sifton says:

    Thanks for da heads up Mark, was planning a ride in the Gorge Thur. but it just got bumped up to Wed!! (was hoping for less wind) & boy have I ever learned never to waste a day when it’s nice to ‘hope’ it will be the same tomorrow!

  10. vernonia1 says:

    Guess I missed all of the Lyrids meteor shower last night 😦

  11. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Thanks for the news, Mark.
    Looks like Wednesday, for the next lawn mowing. Maybe the first cut of dry grass this year? I hate cutting wet grass!

  12. Upper 60’s/70’s looks real good to me. Why can’t we get this northerly flow pattern in the dead of winter???

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