A Bunch of Maps

I’ve got some maps/model info for the weather geeks…

First, last night’s run of the ECMWF out to one month: These are ensemble average maps. Nothing too spectacular except the large upper level ridge in the next 7-10 days slightly west of us:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

To go with that, today’s story with the long range forecast is that models have all shifted that upper level ridging next week slightly to the west, which means a bit cooler weather.  Still a fantastic week ahead, but we may not see 80 degree temps.  This is “model-riding” at its finest!  We’ll see how the 00z models look, but here are the ensemble averaged 500 mb heights for next Wednesday afternoon.  Compare these to the maps on the previous post.  They are for the same forecast time and you can see the shift westward:

can12z ecmwf12z gfs12z

Then the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart and the 12z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Agreement hasn’t totally fallen apart, but not as good as yesterday and 850mb temps are a good 5 degrees cooler the middle of next week.

Today was sure a (nice) forecast bust with no rain the first half of the day and now just a few sprinkles showing up this evening.  I looked out the window at 9am, rubbed my eyes, and thought “where’s the rain”?  A great surprise that ended with an unanticipated bike ride.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

96 Responses to A Bunch of Maps

  1. Sifton says:

    Oh great………..back to another 3 weeks of crap startin Fri. I wish THAT was the forecast everybody gets wrong, but nooooo!!

  2. JJ97222 says:

    I am happier than a tornado in a trailer park with this 7 day forecast!

    • Sifton says:

      Karma? You might get a chance to enjoy those, along with hurricanes & flash floods too!! Bon voyage…………

    • JJ97222 says:

      In my travels I have had to divert my diviing due to a few twisters and heavy rain. My new house is in the Hill Country up quite abit away from flash flood concerns. Unless the pool floods. There are bugs there are real thunder storms not tiny ones Portland gets all and all the 154 average days of Sunshine makes it worth it plus awesome insurance! After 50 plus years it is change maybe an adventure.

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      Unlike up here those warm humid rains bring thunderstorms right? Sometimes severe. I can’t wait to read you’re thunderstorm reports.

    • runrain says:

      And let us know about humidity too. People here don’t KNOW what real humidity is!

    • JJ97222 says:

      One time my plane was diverted to Houston cause Dallas was shut down due to thunder storms so I rented a car and drove Back to Dallas at night thru them the sky was so bright with lightening and huge blasts of thunder it was incredible. White knuckle driving to catch up with my boss for an early morning meeting he flew in earlier.

  3. Frosty and 32.8 for a low, but the sun is out now and it’s beautiful!

  4. spring dangles sun lure
    venomous minds still bait hooks
    true blog pollution

  5. schmit44 says:

    4/21/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:75 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 53 at RED MOUND(1753 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:33 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 25 at Timberline Lodge (6001 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft ) & HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    Lorella (65/22 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.32″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  6. JJ97222 says:

    Check this out go to the katu blog it shows the up coming weeks into May to be above average for Sun and dry weather according to NOAA LOOKS HOT!

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      They were showing the same thing for April and look how that panned out. 😉

      If I were you I would hike tail to San Antonio ASAP and stop polluting this blog with your constant complaining about what is essentially average spring weather up here.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      If I were you, Jesse, I’d watch the attitude toward others who were hoping for an April heat wave, only for the models to suddenly yank it away. After two cold/wet springs I think we’re entitled to complain a little bit at this kind of stuff…

    • geo says:

      HEY JESSE, GO BACK TO WESTERN!

    • JJ97222 says:

      Normal spring what is that 4 out the last 6 have been winter basically. My neighbor was having a social function got her yard fixed up and like all of us was hoping for something above sixty and dry she was so mad at the weather she could spit today. Yes one of the reasons I am moving it is just to gloomy here and the other my account base is in oil and gas so I won’t have to sit in airports so much. So my request to relocate was granted. I thought my kids would have issues but they are looking forward to warmer sunnier local. Again the springs here have been terrible lately to the point agony for me I love to spent time out side. To each their own I made the move.

    • San Antonio, right? Great place. And not a typical red neck Texas town.

    • …sunshine is nice….fire ants ain’t…

    • Chris s says:

      Ya, San Antonio and there 33in of warm humid rain a year is a lot better then here??? Some people are funny how they whine because apparently 60 degrees is just too cold. Lol 😄

  7. *BoringOregon* says:

    Rod hill, on kgw said about 2am on his wind chart for east winds 🙂

  8. runrain says:

    65° beats 52° and drizzle any day!

  9. I was expecting 60 and partly sunny this afternoon. Instead, 49 with rain earlier. Now, however, I see blue sky moving in from the north.

  10. JJ97222 says:

    Looking at the beach cams it shows no sign sun whatsoever could tomorrow be washout also?????

  11. JJ97222 says:

    It is raining under the dome! Imagine that.

  12. JJ97222 says:

    I never complain when it’s 65 to 70 and sunny in April but seeing the light rain again and my nieghbor firing up wood stove to take chill off leads me to believe we are still in winter Jesse. I will be happy and very excited when we hit 75 to 80 this week, I will I promise.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      In that case you will neither be happy or excited this week because it’s not gonna get that warm.

    • geo says:

      You mean warmer like 80-85.

    • JJ97222 says:

      Some channels are now saying rain Wednesday so with that in mind time to head to Texas to warm up again next week. I feel this one slip sliding away the house rain wins again!

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      It’s going to be a nice early October-like pattern with offshore flow and a chilly cP airmass sliding down to our east. A little different than the usual springtime dry/warm spell….

  13. *BoringOregon* says:

    So where is this nice weather that where going to be having at ??

    • JJ97222 says:

      We could be in for a classic or catastrophic now you see it now you don’t move, only Mark knows!

  14. JJ97222 says:

    Another cold non Sunday on the course 9 holes very cold wind to be standing around waiting. Can’t wait to see the easterly wind warm us up. Will this warm up happen I am crossing my fingers remember some were saying 68 today that number has been grayed out and sunblocked.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      So, do you basically just you this blog as a sound board for constant complaining?

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

      53 and a thick mist is falling here. Ground is turning wet. Forget about it getting above 60 today.

  15. schmit44 says:

    4/20/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:74 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 51 at RUFUS(185 ft) & WYETH(102 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at Timberline Lodge(6001 ft)
    Low: 18 at KIRK (4519 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    Lorella (63/20 ) (4160 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.39″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    0.35″ at Detroit Lake(1675ft)

  16. Sifton says:

    60 now for Monday huh? Here goes the back peddling!

  17. JJ97222 says:

    The blue skies are showing thru got the cars all polished up ready for the sunny week ahead. Can’t wait for tomorrow gardening after a round of golf in the morning maybe some tennis after that in the afternoon.

  18. runrain says:

    So, is it safe to say the snow threat is over for the year?

    • JJ97222 says:

      We still have to go thru the Rose Festival Cold temps and mud making rain you never know how much cold air is trapped in those clouds for Portland’s party! Year after year it happens so be alert.

  19. schmit44 says:

    4/19/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:70 at MERLIN SEED ORCH(1144 ft)
    Low: 52 at BROOKS(187 ft) & CW2710 Maupin(1040 ft) & JUNIPR(359 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:32 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 27 at Lakeview, Lake C (4734 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    Lakeview, Lake C (59/27 ) (4734 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.94″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    2.80″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    2.67″ at Upper Wildhorse(3581ft)

  20. Took a trip on the Fruit Loop in the Hood River Valley!

  21. Dave in South Salem (500') says:

    I prefer temps in the 60s and 70s to anything above or below that. So I am happy to see the forecast change to 75!

    • JJ97222 says:

      That is is cold day in my wood stove heated family room but 75 is much better the mid 50s out now. The kids want another log on at 72 but if the they get cold with air on in the new house they can just step outside for average 90+ in San Antonio this summer. No more stacking wood no more getting wood in the cold rain in the middle of winter. There are pluses to Davey Crocketville! Plus I can hang christmas lights in shorts.

    • Sifton says:

      Your still gonna post daily weather reports from S.A. right?? Gee……can’t…….wait…………

    • JJ97222 says:

      I know there is an average of 154 completely sunny days and 70 partly cloudy days I probably will post on a few of those!

  22. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    April is the wettest month of the year so far:

    In Hillsboro, after yesterday’s evening’s rain.

    2.11″ as of Midnight. Shows how dry Jan-Mar were that it only took 2″ to exceed any of them easily. And I’m guessing that April will come in around or below average when all is done given the dry long range forecast.

  23. Longview - 400 ft says:

    We all know that forecasting the weather beyond 3 days out is usually tricky to nail perfectly regardless of what the models come out with.

    I knew seeing a high temp of 82 for Wednesday could go in any direction up through Sunday. That is just how it is!!!

    So someone predicted a high for next Wednesday of 82 and now someone is griping about it because it is now at 75. Yikes!!!

    My wish is simply this, just appreciate what we have that someone is allowing us all to talk about the weather in an learning environment that we ALL continue to learn from each other.

    Why humans must try and be little each other over the most stupid arguments is so exhausting!

    If Mark was a weather god, people would have a legitimate argument if what he said did not come to be.

    I’ll take 75 tonight, just like I took 82 last night, and now I am looking forward to what he might think it will be tomorrow night. He usually comes very close within the three day out prediction which is great in the weather predicting world.

    I put Mark up on the same shelf, if you will, with Jim Little.

    Bias on being too warm?

  24. schmit44 says:

    4/18/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:73 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 49 at BROOKS(187 ft) & RUFUS(185 ft) & Weatherby Rest A(2390 ft) & John Day River B(305 ft) & DW3057 Milton-Fr(1102 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & NERRS MET SITE A(10 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 11 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    FOSTER FLAT (59/13 ) (5000 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.25″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)

  25. Lurkyloo says:

    I found that rain you were looking for this morning, Mark. It’s at my house now if you want to come and get it.

  26. schmit44 says:

    Taking an overall look at the euro weeklies, it looks like a lot of nice days coming between now and mid-may. Maybe we get an above average May this year? Well IMO there is a good chance of that.
    Here are the last 10 years. Notice the past three May’s have been colder than average:

    Year – Mean temp- Trend
    2012 – 58.0 (-0.4) below
    2011 – 54.0 (-4.4) below
    2010 – 55.0 (-3.4) below
    2009 – 60.1 (+1.7) above
    2008 – 58.9 (+0.5) above
    2007 – 58.6 (+0.2) above
    2006 – 59.8 (+1.4) above
    2005 – 60.2 (+1.8) above
    2004 – 60.1 (+1.7) above
    2003 – 57.3 (-1.1) below
    2002 – 55.7 (-2.7) below

    • Spring 2004 was warm all-around. The most recent “warm Spring” we’ve seen. Better yet, the warmth was especially concentrated in March and April, which made it almost feel like we had been teleported several hundred miles south:

      March – 51.2 (+3.1)
      April – 56.3 (+4.0)
      May – 60.1 (+1.8)
      June – 65.5 (+1.9)

      I was living in Eugene at the time. I remember seeing the native bigleaf maples showing actual LEAVES (not just the dangling flowers) by late March, and the leaves were fully expanded and actually darkening up by the 3rd week of April. Lots of tulips the 2nd half of March too, even a few lilac blooms by month’s end.

  27. chuck on mt scott says:

    10 Deg warmer than recently would be good. 20 will be a bonus. I’ll take it.

  28. W7ENK says:

    I really like that contest idea, Mark! Next week, I hope someone roasts in Skamanian Hell and melts into a whiny little puddle (rest is edited)

    • WX Ninja says:

      Wow, interesting choice of words and quite a bit much for a weather blog…Certainly not the type of language I come on here to see, hopefully it can be toned down a bit. Not trying to start a fight, just stating my opinion.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Oh, we all know he’s just cracking a joke! :laugh:

    • Sifton says:

      “Skamanian Hell!!” LMAO………Love it!! The warm/HOT 6 months starts Sunday, get ready!

  29. *BoringOregon* says:

    At least u did not have to go to the dentist today, but still a nice day today !

  30. vernonia1 says:

    think it is Monday nite that there will be meteor viewing if it is clear 🙂

  31. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    Ouch, looks like that warm bias bit you again Mark! 😉

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      We could do another forecast contest and I could beat you again if you would like 🙂

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Yeah, your warm bias really came in handy for that one. The models dramatically warmed up in the days leading up to the event. I think that was a trough in mid-November 2011 we had the last contest over, right?

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      But yeah another contest would be fun. 🙂

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Or maybe just bad forecasting on your part? You are really annoying Jesse. If you can you give me some info based on past events to support your claim that I have a warm bias you can keep posting for now.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      In order to do that I would have to have access to a backlog of your 7-day forecasts (which I don’t).

      I guess going for an out-there 82 for next Wednesday last night based on a few warm model runs then having to dramatically cool your forecast today to fit reality ( I notice you have Wednesday 7 degrees cooler now at 75) is probably the most recent example I can see with the info I have available to me.

      I’m by no means saying you’re a bad forecaster, just that you have a warm bias that you let get the best of you from time to time. We all have our quirks.

      I am certainly down for a re-match if you’d like, though. 🙂

    • archangelmichael2 says:

      First of all that sounds neat a back log of 7 day forecasting to see an archive of major storms/heatwaves or cold spells before they happened.

      Second of all this is a classic textbook of *Opposites attract* with neither one admitting to their bias which Mark is warm and Jesse is cold.

      In fact I’m sure to win the most coins in any Mario Party without landing on Bowser spaces or Chance time *Lucky Lottery* for Mario Party 4 before anybody admits it.

      Or should I say UNlucky lottery which sounds a lot like this.

      Lucky Lottery Mario Party 4.

      I wonder if anybody has ever won anything there.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Interesting thoughts Kyle. I certainly will admit I have a bit of a cold bias.

      I consider the “rivalry” between Mark and myself to be friendly. There are some on here that interpret it strangely and take things to odd and almost hateful-seeming levels but I honestly mean no harm.

    • W7ENK says:

      Trust me sweetheart, the disdain runs so much deeper than your imbecilic taunts toward a professional meteorologist.

      Head on back over to Western, you have no friends here.

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      Chill out psychopath. 🙂 Isn’t there a “30 year old virgins” forum you could be posting on or something?

    • W7ENK says:

      HAA! Fail. 😆

    • Jesse-Stevenson says:

      I still am interested in doing a forecast contest, Mark. 🙂

      Although I wish we could have started it a few days ago when you were calling for temps in the 80s next week. That would have given me an edge, lol.

    • schmit44 says:

      I am running a forecast contest for the month of May. Feel free to enter it Jesse and see how good you really are.

  32. JJ97222 says:

    See Mark this weeks forcast is already getting better than first thought maybe tomorrows rain will vanish so we can get the sun festival going earlier. You never know!

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