A Bunch of Maps

April 18, 2013

I’ve got some maps/model info for the weather geeks…

First, last night’s run of the ECMWF out to one month: These are ensemble average maps. Nothing too spectacular except the large upper level ridge in the next 7-10 days slightly west of us:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

To go with that, today’s story with the long range forecast is that models have all shifted that upper level ridging next week slightly to the west, which means a bit cooler weather.  Still a fantastic week ahead, but we may not see 80 degree temps.  This is “model-riding” at its finest!  We’ll see how the 00z models look, but here are the ensemble averaged 500 mb heights for next Wednesday afternoon.  Compare these to the maps on the previous post.  They are for the same forecast time and you can see the shift westward:

can12z ecmwf12z gfs12z

Then the 12z ECMWF ensemble chart and the 12z GFS ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Agreement hasn’t totally fallen apart, but not as good as yesterday and 850mb temps are a good 5 degrees cooler the middle of next week.

Today was sure a (nice) forecast bust with no rain the first half of the day and now just a few sprinkles showing up this evening.  I looked out the window at 9am, rubbed my eyes, and thought “where’s the rain”?  A great surprise that ended with an unanticipated bike ride.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen