Is That Really an 80 Degree Day in the Forecast?

The short answer is yes, here’s the longer answer…

We’re increasingly confident that the early-middle part of next week will be quite warm for several reasons.  Here’s our 7 Day forecast as of Wednesday evening:

7 Day

Why?

Models today have suddenly come into great agreement for the 4-8 day period (Sunday through next Thursday).  The past few days they have been all over the place beyond Sunday; this is common when models are struggling with an upcoming pattern change.  But now they’ve settled on the change.

That change is strong offshore surface flow (an east wind event) from Monday through Wednesday next week, plus 850mb temps peaking out around +11 to +17 next Wednesday, depending on the model.  The 12z ECMWF was the warmest with the +17.    For comparison, in the 18 Aprils from 1992 to 2009, only 3 days saw a +17 degree or warmer temp.  All three of those days were 85-90 degrees.  But, that ECMWF temp was an outlier.  Regardless, a +15 degree temp with easterly flow and 100% sunshine will push us into the 80-85 degree range this time of year.

10pm UpdateMaybe I should have checked the blog & high temps from April 22/23rd just one year ago!  Exact same situation pushed us to 82 degrees two days in a row!  https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/04/20/warm-weekend-is-here/

Continuing on…

Here are two of the usual ensemble charts I show, compare them to charts from just two days ago; far more agreement:

12z ECMWF…

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

12z GFS…

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

And here are the ensemble 500 mb anomaly maps for next Wednesday from the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM (Canadian model).  Notice they all show ridging right along the West Coast:

ecmwf12z

gfs12z

can12z

Almost 3 weeks ago we hit 77 two days in a row (remember Easter Weekend?), upper 70s isn’t a huge deal in late April.  Most records are in the 80s in those last 10 days of the month.  Next Wednesday’s record high is 79 at PDX.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

27 Responses to Is That Really an 80 Degree Day in the Forecast?

  1. I like this warm weather talk! Very nice! I’m heading to E. WA & N. ID this weekend may the weather stay nice! But, a thunderstorm would be nice Spokane has had some good ones as of late!

  2. JJ97222 says:

    Sun worshipers golphers people that want to barbecue, people that want to come out of their PNW cocoons rejoice the rain will stop for awhile, the 7 day is freaking hot! Today looks rain free also got my lawn mowed just add SUN can’t wait

  3. schmit44 says:

    Parts of Illinois under water today. Some spots around Chicago with over 7″ of rain in 24 hours.

  4. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    GFS indicating mid-upper 70’s by the last week of April in Klamath Falls. I would certainly enjoy being outside then!

    (And hopefully maybe a t’storm in the mix, too….)

  5. JJ97222 says:

    I love it when those upper 30s for lows are kicked out of here!

  6. W7ENK says:

    Oh, this will be so nice! 😀

  7. AdamInAumsville says:

    06Z GFS not nearly as warm.

  8. schmit44 says:

    4/17/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:68 at BOARD( 290 ft)
    Low: 46 at UMATILLA RIVER B(587 ft) & North Bend Munic(16 ft) & NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 7 at FOURMILE LAKE NE (5810 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 42 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (53/11 ) (5330 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.62″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)
    0.59″ at SUGARLOAF(4328ft)

  9. Tyler Mode says:

    Figures, I head off to Europe next week and the weather turns nice here!

  10. Lurkyloo says:

    Is it me, or are we all a bit giddy about this forecast?? Remember the animals in “Bambi” when Spring finally came? Twitterpated, that’s us. (Not to be confused with that “tweeting” stuff …). WooHoo!!

  11. *BoringOregon* says:

    Oh wow, when did this change. This is going to be fun going to have to till the garden up the first nice day we get so it can dry out. I’m saying 90’s hahaha !!

  12. runrain says:

    I remember 90 deg heat in ’97 in towards the end of April, with some outstanding evening thunderstorms. Oh, if we could get that!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      That sounds spectacular!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Yes!

    • That was 1998! I remember it well too. May 1st was my dad’s birthday and I remember video taping the thunderstorms that erupted that day. It was the first time I ever video taped any weather event…geeze what it has started!

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Simmer down, now. ‘Poose would have a heart attack if that happened. 😉

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Ya, my heart’s all aflutter just thinking about it, Lurkyloo!

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      In May 1997, there were also outstanding outbreaks in NE Oregon / Eastern Washington, one of which prompted a Tornado Watch on 05/31/1997. Who knows when Washington or Oregon will ever see another one of those issued.

  13. JJ97222 says:

    Oh we need this total dry hot redemption from the past wet and cold springs, remember the rotten tomato plants of a few years ago because of cold and ungodly wet weather. What s wrong with way under on rain and heavy on sunshine!!! This could be the start of something great this will help me get ready for the San Antonio heat! Let’s keep the 80s coming!

  14. dothgrin says:

    Bring it!!! (Now where are my cargo shorts…?)

  15. schmit44 says:

    This forecast scenario is my favorite every spring. The first 80 degree day holds a special place in my heart every year.

  16. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Uh Mark, are you hinting that you need a vacation someplace warm again? Cause it’s a lil late for April fools day, and it’s not nice to tease us like that! LOL, Thanks for the heads up. I’ll be going camping next week for sure!

  17. JERAT416 says:

    Sounds good to me! I remember something like this from 2008 (I think, or it could be 2007) where we hit around 80 in April on a Saturday. Dang did I get sunburned.

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