A Whole Bunch of Maps/Charts

Time to geek out!  Not much going on in the short-term with just a few shallow convective showers this afternoon (a few more than I expected), although our RPM model showed them developing.

A sharp cold front moves through Friday evening and then it’s on to a cold upper trough Saturday through Monday.  It’s going to be another chilly weekend.  For the first 1/3 of April we are still running slightly above average due to all that warm weather the first few days.

Where do we go beyond next Monday, the 15th?  I love using the ensemble charts for a very quick glance.  Here is the 12z GFS 850mb ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland (1)

and the 12z ECMWF chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

They both show below average temps through at least next Tuesday, then some sort of warm up the 2nd half of next week.  Quite a bit of spread on both charts.  For example, a week from tomorrow 850mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF are between -4  and +9; that’s either chilly or temps well above average.  That’s directly related to how much upper-level ridging builds/nudges near the West Coast.

Here is last night’s run of the ECMWF out to one month.  Maps are the average 500mb height for each week:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Interesting that week two is showing an upper level ridge centered just to our south.   This also appears in the GFS and GEM ensemble means for around Day14.  Something to keep an eye on for another shot of very warm weather?

m500za_f288_bg_NA
m500za_f288_bg_NA

Looking at the ECMWF, it also appears there is no prolonged period of cold troughing ahead (on this ONE RUN of this ONE MODEL).  Of course it could just be my warm bias?  My pear trees are just about to bloom and the cherries have started along with a peach tree…they need some warmer weather so I’m hoping the weather will warm up a bit.

I planted a bunch of broccoli today.  It’s still too early of course to plant any sort of warm weather veggies, but taking the info above into account, I don’t see any reason why all other cool-season stuff can’t be planted.  No sign of a long cold and wet spell ahead.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

16 Responses to A Whole Bunch of Maps/Charts

  1. vernonia1 says:

    the 2nd pic on this page show a picture of the largest solar flare of the year. Not an X class….but big….& also gorgeous

    http://www.space.com/20617-sun-biggest-solar-flare-2013.html

  2. ocpaul says:

    36.3 in Oregon City.

  3. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    WARM BIAS

  4. karlbonner1982 says:

    Garry oaks are continuing to slowly emerge at the lowest elevations of the eastern Gorge…tomorrow I’ll drive a few miles west to see if they’re out that way too!

  5. runrain says:

    The peas are coming up nicely, and the strawberry plants I put in last year have really started to grow in the past couple weeks.

  6. Sifton says:

    Hopefully this is the last taste of cold until October!!

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Yes it could be – but I wouldn’t bet on it. We still have several weeks ahead of us where it’s fairly easy for NW Oregon/ SW Washington to get high temps below 60 degrees. We’re not really out of the woods until Memorial Day, and even in early June it’s possible to get a day or two in the upper 50s.

      However it IS likely that this will be the last time we see snow levels down to 3,000 feet or lower, unless we get an unusually cold trough in late April / early May similar to what happened in 2011. Barring that, the lower slopes of the Cascades probably won’t see white again until some time in November.

    • runrain says:

      I’ll just be happy if we can get high temps to stay above 50-52. 55 and on up is fine with me. I plug 55 into my brain as the temp at which I am just comfortable outside in long shirtsleeves.

  7. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Here’s hoping your warm bias pays off, Mark. More 70’s by Day 14 would be very nice indeed.
    This year my garden is dedicated to a crop of Farmer Vincent’s fritters, but I’m still not sure if that would be a cool-weather or warm-weather planting scenario… 😉

  8. *BoringOregon* says:

    Well that would be good we need some dry time, to dry out the Garden. They say not to plant stuff in tell mid April. So I’m going to wait for about a week to plant the Giant Pumpkins in a green house or a small one. And I hope we have a great cherry yr !!

  9. W7ENK says:

    Oh yeah, today is map day, huh… 😆

  10. JJ97222 says:

    Hoping for mid 70s on the next warm up!!!!!

  11. gidrons says:

    Well at least the east side of the state will get some much needed moisture in the next week. I’m waiting another week or two before I plant.

  12. bgb41 says:

    Cant wait for that week #4 ridge to start off May with some 70s.

%d bloggers like this: