Time to geek out! Not much going on in the short-term with just a few shallow convective showers this afternoon (a few more than I expected), although our RPM model showed them developing.
A sharp cold front moves through Friday evening and then it’s on to a cold upper trough Saturday through Monday. It’s going to be another chilly weekend. For the first 1/3 of April we are still running slightly above average due to all that warm weather the first few days.
Where do we go beyond next Monday, the 15th? I love using the ensemble charts for a very quick glance. Here is the 12z GFS 850mb ensemble chart:
and the 12z ECMWF chart:
They both show below average temps through at least next Tuesday, then some sort of warm up the 2nd half of next week. Quite a bit of spread on both charts. For example, a week from tomorrow 850mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF are between -4 and +9; that’s either chilly or temps well above average. That’s directly related to how much upper-level ridging builds/nudges near the West Coast.
Here is last night’s run of the ECMWF out to one month. Maps are the average 500mb height for each week:
Interesting that week two is showing an upper level ridge centered just to our south. This also appears in the GFS and GEM ensemble means for around Day14. Something to keep an eye on for another shot of very warm weather?
Looking at the ECMWF, it also appears there is no prolonged period of cold troughing ahead (on this ONE RUN of this ONE MODEL). Of course it could just be my warm bias? My pear trees are just about to bloom and the cherries have started along with a peach tree…they need some warmer weather so I’m hoping the weather will warm up a bit.
I planted a bunch of broccoli today. It’s still too early of course to plant any sort of warm weather veggies, but taking the info above into account, I don’t see any reason why all other cool-season stuff can’t be planted. No sign of a long cold and wet spell ahead.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen