Monday Update & Denver Weather

Our weather doesn’t look too exciting over the next 5 days at least.  Maybe some cold/active showers this weekend (you know, hail, thunder, gusty wind). 

But did you see what happened in Colorado this afternoon/evening?  Just ahead of our cold upper low that passed over the weekend is a very warm air mass over the Great Plains.  Denver’s temperatures jumped into the lower 70s.  Now a very cold late season arctic air mass is surging south across all that flat land.  See what happened?  Summer to winter in just a few hours:

MarkDenverChanges

That sure doesn’t happen here!  Our air masses are modified by the proximity to an ocean that varies only about 10 degrees from summer to winter.  Plus we have no flat land between here and the arctic that would allow that really cold air to flow south.  Our 10pm producer Melanie grew up in Chinook, MT in a similar climate east of the Rockies.  She said even that is rare in April.  By the way, a huge snowstorm develops the next two days from that area northeast all the way to Minneapolis.  Check out those 10-20″ snow forecasts across the Dakotas and Nebraska/Minnesota.  A nice spring snowstorm.

RPM_SNOWACCUM_USA

Models are in pretty good agreement that we see cool troughing back over us this upcoming weekend and at least part of NEXT week.  So if you’re looking for warm sunshine you’re going to have to wait awhile.

For the geeks, here is the 00z GFS 850mb ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

And the monthly run of the ECMWF from last night; the average of each week’s 500mb heights:

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

31 Responses to Monday Update & Denver Weather

  1. *BoringOregon* says:

    Great live link of storm chasing —-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2OnsXEzttM&feature=youtu.be

  2. JJ97222 says:

    Beautiful sunshine all the way from Reno over the mountains to Bakersfield great drive yesterday. Just looked outside not a cloud in the sky this moning. Looks like we have to live on that March sunshine for while till we build up that snow pack with another cold April. I will enjoy that 75 degrees here for the next couple days.

    • JJ97222 says:

      Sorry it will be 80 degrees here in Bakersfield today and 84 tomorrow now that is spring weather

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Enjoy the warm temps. I still prefer the greenery up here to the brownery down there, even if it means less sunshine. To each their own, eh?

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I’m with you Dave. I lived in So Cal for almost 30 years, and I will gladly trade the warm and dry weather for 4 distinct seasons and unparalleled natural beauty.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Dave, +2.

  3. For some reason I’m up, and noticing the rain is somewhat delayed. It is nice and warm out though, 50 still.

  4. Sifton says:

    Nobody here but us crickets…………

  5. bgb41 says:

    4/9/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at AGNESS2( 247 ft)
    Low: 46 at NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft) & DW1439 Eugene(810 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:30 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 11 at FOURMILE LAKE NE (5810 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 46 degrees
    CABIN LAKE (61/15 ) (4560 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.54″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  6. ashley watson says:

    After looking at denver and cheyenne weather the last 24 hours I am convinced that even our so called exciting weather sucks!

  7. Ben T says:

    I propose that the GFS should be discontinued next Winter.

  8. Apparently KOIN 6 changed the url of their 7 day forecast image. Here’s the new url.

    • W7ENK says:

      What the hell have they done to their website design in general?? It looks TERRIBLE!! Like, retro circa 1995 or something? So sterile, and blahhhhhhh. Whoever they paid to do that should be taken out back behind the KOIN tower and beaten with a sack of hammers. Good Lord! 😦

  9. gidrons says:

    You in. And climo is better than what we’ve had the last few years.

  10. March 2013 in Battle Ground and (Minnehaha)
    Highest High: 78.9, 30th (80.3, 30th, earliest 80+, and warmest March temp)
    Lowest Low: 25.4, 4th (27.7, 4th)
    Highest Wind: WSW 31, 20th (SW 28, 20th)
    Most Precip: 0.48″, 19th (0.52″, 19th)

    Total Precip: 2.27″ (1.81″, driest March on record, beating out 1.90″ in 2004)

    Avg High: 56.7 (57.8)
    Avg Low: 37.6 (38.6)
    Mean: 47.1 (48.2)

  11. karlbonner1982 says:

    Harumph…if it’s going to be troughy in April here, we might as well “really go for it” 2008-style, rather than high temps in the low 50s with 2,000-foot snow levels. Let’s shoot for a -7 or -8 on the 850mb model runs tomorrow, and some kind of nighttime/morning surface shortwave low spinning through that coincides with the really cold air!

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Except that we totally all know that we won’t see that. What we’ll get is something cold, but NO snow below 1,000 feet. Why am I so sure of that? Because snowy weather is totally Bogarted from us.

  12. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Dear ECMWF:

    Seriously, stop making me hope the GFS is right.

    Sincerely yours;

    The Northwest Club

    (P.S. Dude, really? Knock that shizzle off dude.)

  13. *BoringOregon* says:

    I keep saying old man winter is not over yet !! Really cool is the great tornado hunt going on starting today. They drive all over chasing storms just google search Great Tornado Hunt !

    • fishinpox02 says:

      I was watching some live streams today from chasers and they came across those guys in the field.

  14. bgb41 says:

    4/8/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at ECHO( 683 ft)
    Low: 45 at John Day River B(305 ft) & Yaquina Bridge W(120 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 16 at BEND WATERSHED (5330 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft ) & Rim (7050 ft ) & HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 32 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (48/16 ) (5330 ft )
    Mount Hood Meado (27/16) (6601 ft)
    Rim (24/16) (7050 ft)
    HOWARD Mt Howard (22/16) (8150 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.88″ at BOULDER CREEK(3570ft)
    0.74″ at BALD KNOB(3630ft)
    0.71″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.66″ at SILVER BUTTE(3973ft)
    0.66″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)

  15. Greg Carstens says:

    Looks like things are staying on the cool side according to the ECMWF weekly maps. With the current pattern going the way it is I am in no way surprised. In four days with the last frontal passage I picked up 2.55 inches of rain in Southeast Tacoma and we are no where near the half way part of the month of April. Will we have a record month for rainfall in April in some locations? At this point I would not bet against it. I hope the rain will at least let up for the Daffodil festival in the local area up here. I always feel bad for those kids when they have to march or sit on floats during the parade festivities all day long.

    According to my monthly data here Mark it appears I think that we may have a 50-50 chance that May could be on the wet side as well. In 2011 I had 4.71 inches in April which is above normal. May that same year followed above normal as well at 4.59. 2010 had a dry April that was followed by a wet May and there seemed to be a lag in the weather that year as June was wet as well after May. So more or less the same pattern is developing right now as these two patterns I mention here and since we are starting early with the wet pattern this time perhaps we are going to have a dry June here because June 2011 was on the dry side at 1.53 inches after the wet April and May.

    Interesting teleconnections and it will be even more interesting to see if the two month rainfall pattern that is happening earlier this year will pan out. We’re due for a warm and DRY June. 🙂

  16. orwxguy says:

    I noticed that Greeley, CO went from about 75 degrees at 4:15pm to about 45 degrees at 5:00pm… and even lower later on…wow! I guess that’s what happens when there is nothing to stop that cold air.

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Snow events are actually pretty common in the Spring in Denver. The heaviest snows there usually occur in March but April early on is not out of the question either. The temperature swings in the Spring are really something to behold if there is not a more massive cold air mass swinging through the area like there is setting up as we speak here. It will be interesting to watch how fast the weather rebounds back there to more of what is considered normal.

  17. W7ENK says:

    Maps n maps n maps n maps n…

    I thought Thursday was map day??

    • Greg Carstens says:

      Erik read my discussion above and tell me what you might think. I am wondering if you see the same sort of patterns there were yuo live. Thanks!

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      Bootz n catz n bootz n catz n bootz n catz n bootz….

    • W7ENK says:

      LOL @ Karl 😆

      Greg, I don’t really put that much faith in analogs. I used to, but in recent years that all seems to fail, miserably. Although, I suppose by comparing this year’s trend with that of the last several, that would still be using the whole analog theory, just more recent years rather than the distant previous? Seems that outcome has been much more reliable as of late, so I don’t really know…

      I do know what I would like, and that would be these April showers to not be quite so cold, which leads into some consistently warm May sunshine, followed by a brief warm and wet thunder showery pattern in June week 1-2, and then a quick bout of low 90s sometime June week 3 or 4. Nice and dry July with some amazing SSE flow off the mountains later in the month, a beautiful dry August with a day or two that touches 100-103, forget that onshore marine flow crap, some more SSE flow, fall rains hold off until September week 2, October mostly dry 2nd half with foggy evenings/mornings, first frost, sunny days, maybe some east wind to warm things up a day or two (Indian Summer), rainy/windy November and December, a foot of snow on Christmas lasting through New Years.

      BUT — You know what will probably happen? 2010/2011/2012 redux (general overall patterns), but shift everything back by at least another week, perhaps two — 10 days nominal. This cool and wet pattern holds on, locked until August week 1-2, then it gets dry and warm, stays that way until Hallowe’en, then the rains come back but temps stay warm all the way into next March/April. No summer thunderstorms, no fall windstorms, no arctic blasts, no significant lowland snow. We have to wait until 2016 for all that stuff, that’s when this crappy weather rut we’ve been stuck in finally lets go and all Hell breaks loose.

      Of course, that’s all for here in Portland and the Willamette Valley.

      Yes, I just gave a forecast for the rest of the year… yes I did.

  18. bgb41 says:

    Euro weeklies looking closer to climo week 3 + 4

    • Greg Carstens says:

      I think they will continue to be more on the cool and wet side through May up my way Brian. We’ll see though. I am thinking if we do get that scenario then we will have a dry June and I know you would surely enjoy that.

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