Quick Weekend Update

April 5, 2013

Friday 11pm…

  • Models have backed off on the chance for strong wind Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Only our RPM still shows a decently deep low moving by to our north to produce wind gusts 35+ in the metro area.  So don’t worry about it; just more normal April breezy/windy weather at times over the weekend.
  • Lots of cooler than average weather ahead; no new surprises there.

Check out the 12z ECMWF 850mb ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

and the new 00z GFS chart:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

 


Strong Wind Early Sunday Morning?

April 5, 2013

Models are in some decent agreement that some sort of surface low will track right into the Pacific Northwest late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  Over the past 24 hours it has ranged from a weak low to our south all the way up to a strong low still deepening as it moves inland around Astoria.  Here are a few maps from this morning:

The 12z NAM has the low weakening a bit as it moves right over us or to our south, not a windy setup.

sfc_pcp_f048_bg_nw

The 12z ECMWF also has the low going right over us or just a little to the south, nothing to see here folks, move on to another model if you want wind:

ecmwf_apcp_f48_nw

Our RPM shows the low farther north and a little “baggy-looking”.

wrf

The 12z WRF-GFS is strongest with a low deepening as it passes by just to our north. That’s 14 millibars from Kelso to Eugene, very windy any time of the year, and definitely so in April!

slp_51_0000

The 12z GEM, not pictured, has the low deepening offshore, but then weakening as it moves inland.

So it MAY get real windy late Saturday night or early Sunday morning if the low ends up going by to our north…something to keep an eye on.

I’ll check in again after the 00z models come out this afternoon.