ECMWF Weekly Maps

The 12z ECMWF ensemble chart:

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

Models are all in general agreement that we have the chilly trough/s over us this weekend, brief ridging Tuesday/Wednesday (and flat, so not much sun?), then more cold troughing around days 8-10:

Here are the weekly averaged 500mb height maps from the ECMWF run last night.

500za_week1_bg_NA

500za_week2_bg_NA

500za_week3_bg_NA

500za_week4_bg_NA

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

20 Responses to ECMWF Weekly Maps

  1. bgb41 says:

    4/4/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:71 at Rye Valley(I-84(2230 ft)
    Low: 56 at NATRON(518 ft) & BROOKS(187 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:41 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 28 at ANTELOPE (6460 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 29 degrees
    DW8887 Cove (64/35 ) (2700 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.79″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    2.33″ at RED MOUND(1753ft)
    1.85″ at FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543ft)

  2. W7ENK says:

    UMATILLA OR 04/04/2013 0615 PM
    DOWNED TREE. DAMAGE TO HOME. POWER LINES DOWN.

    UMATILLA OR 04/04/2013 0615 PM
    BARN DESTROYED.

    UMATILLA OR 04/04/2013 0615 PM
    POWER LINES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

    UMATILLA OR 04/04/2013 0640 PM
    POWER OUTAGES.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pdt/currentConditions/lsrpdt.php

  3. runrain says:

    They had a tornado warning this evening down by Red Bluff, CA.

  4. *BoringOregon* says:

    That looks like one mean sky over in pendleton almost looks green==http://www.tripcheck.com/popups/Cam.asp?curRegion=2&camera=635

    • *BoringOregon* says:

      Weather channel just said bow eco north east of Pendleton with a possible tornado in it !

  5. runrain says:

    Nice cell over Oregon City.

  6. So much for the spring fever thang… Dang nabbit! That pesky cold PDO!

    • With cold air aloft implied with the forecast trough, maybe PDX NWS should put out a long track eddy watch (LTEW). Wouldn’t want a horse, cattle, or other barn creatures to be caught off guard if a stray eddy tears the roofing sheet metal off

    • W7ENK says:

      Ya know, it’s funny. That cold phase PDO seems to screw us out of unseasonably cold weather in the winter (when it counts), and yet somehow manages to screw us WITH unseasonably cold weather once winter is done? I just don’t understand it…

    • It’s called Increasing Seasonal Lag Syndrome (LSAS), Erik. Don’t worry – the British Isles are suffering from it too this year. Their coldest calendar month of the 2012-13 greater winter season was March.

      Just watch what happens this year. Chilly spring troughs and early summer marine muck, but hopefully not quite as constantly cool like 2011. But I still think the most consistently dry/ridgy weather of 2013 is going to be September AND October. Many days of Santa Ana-esque downsloping east wind off the Cascades. Extremely warm days but fairly seasonal temps at night. For the Gorge and eastside it will be classically beautiful early fall weather after a very comfortable summer – but west of the Cascades it will be more of a delayed summer after tons of June/July/early August Gloom.

    • W7ENK says:

      I think the whole of Northern/Northeastern Europe is suffering from it. My friends in Estonia are complaining because they’re solid into in their 5th month of winter now, and it seems to them like it will never end!

      With that nice weather we had last week I hoped that we were finally breaking out of this trend, but now it’s clear that it was just an accident.

      I’ve mentioned this extended or prolonged and progressing seasonal lag before on here, but was initially called a conspiracy theorist — not exactly sure why. Just a few weeks ago I said something to the effect that since December 2008 our seasons have seemingly progressed to a point where now they’re nearly 90 degrees out of phase. Another 4 years of this, and we (here in the PNW) could have winter in summer and summer in winter, which would likely translate to a consistent 55 degrees, clouds and rain for who knows how long. It would be interesting to know what is driving this. I’m sure this kind of long term pattern has set up here before, but probably well before anyone was keeping records.

  7. Greg Carstens says:

    Interesting Mark

    Week three looks like something I would see more like in perhaps December or January. I say that because in week three it appears there is a nice lobe heading out over the Gulf of Alaska but in week 4 it appears to erode away with the brunt of the energy headed off toward the Canadian Maritime area. At any rate it appears to be quite a cold looking pattern even for April. I guess I will leave the snow measuring board out here in the backyard in Southeast Tacoma, just in case… 🙂

  8. gidrons says:

    Those maps are looking Spring 2012ish. I’ll hold off planting any seeds just yet.

  9. W7ENK says:

    Wow, Mother Nature looks really p!$$ed off right now!!

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