Cold Models

This is pure weather geek info below, ignore this posting if you aren’t a geek!

Earlier this week I had noticed how unusually cold models were.  This afternoon I wondered…how did they do?  I had some time this evening, so I figured this would be a better use of my time than Facebook or planning the next vacation. 

Take a look at the 850mb temperature forecasts; that’s the temperature (in celsius) around 4-5,000 ft.  The forecasts are for the past 3 days leading up to today.  So all model forecasts under “5am” are for 5am Friday going back 3 days.  The actual conditions are from the twice daily balloon sounding over Salem.

 

5am

5pm

Actual SLE 850mb Temp Today

-6.7

-5.7

 

 

 

FCST ON THURSDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-8

-8

12z GFS

-7

-6

12z ECMWF

-8

 

FCST ON WEDNESDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-9

-8

12z GFS

-7

-6

12z ECMWF

-7

 

FCST ON TUESDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-9

-9

12z GFS

-8

-7

12z ECMWF

-8

 

The NAM was definitely too cold, but even the other models ended up slightly on the cool side.  They did improve a bit as the “event” got a little closer.  You would expect (hopefully) numerical modeling to latch onto reality a bit more as we get closer too.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

59 Responses to Cold Models

  1. Ben T says:

    Really guys? This is not going to solve anything. You both have your opinions so just move on. You are clogging up the messages for those of us who are actually following the rules.

  2. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    60 / 26 @ KLMT

    Was a nice warmer day. A little hazy/overcast but I don’t mind as long as it felt great.

  3. Greg Carstens says:

    Well let’s see here….All I really have to talk about tonight is the severe sunshine we had that was filtered severely by higher clouds which never let the temperature get all that severe here in Southeast Tacoma today. The temperature made it to 58 for a high but it sure felt warmer out on the south facing deck out back here while I enjoyed a turkey sandwich.

    Sorry to all who have not seen my charts on Facebook on Brian’s group much lately. I have had to make some adjustments to things here since family issues have got in the way. I did manage to post a Vancouver chart there today in defiance of what some people think is nothing more than a waste of time for me to work on each day. Thanks to all who appreciate my work on those though. I guess if I made money some how making those charts there would be no concerns. 🙂

  4. JJ97222 says:

    What a great start to Spring you gotta love this compared to the last few, 70 degrees this weekend coming up can you believe it, that should put a spring in your step. Now this is what I call exciting weather! Tennis anyone?

  5. Ben T says:

    How do I stay interested in the weather after Winter?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Wait for a good thunderstorm? Otherwise just enjoy the warmer weather and wait for NEXT winter.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Thunderstorms!!!! Not the cold core ones; although those are also fun. The real big ones that form on the Cascades, east of the Cascades and every few years on this side of the mountains. Look back to June 2008 around the 4th and 5th. 🙂

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      June 2009!!! Sorry 😉

    • Sifton says:

      What winter?? That last 6 months (of h double e L as i call it) was a breeze!! Just gotta make the best of it……….or move as I’ve been told a time or two.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      I am not sure if there was all that much of a winter to speak of this year…. for you guys anyway!

      Warm core t’storms… I’m pumped! Its that time of year I just sit and watch and radars for hours… ^_^

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      watch the* radars

      typo. 😛

  6. W7ENK says:

    Over Milwaukie earlier.

    Interestingly, you can actually see the outline of the Dome in this photo as the rain columns are dragging up the side and the clouds are circling around. Not a drop of rain has fallen in my neighborhood this evening, despite this thing passing directly overhead. o_O

  7. My son’s mother in law was here from western N Dakota for a few days. Let’s just say you don’t want to ask about the weather back home right now! 🙂

  8. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL in Hillsboro says:

    Raining here in SE Hillsboro, big drops but sparse. Enough to get the deck wet, but not measurable yet.

  9. High Desert Mat says:

    Ok well, the slow part of the year on this blog has started. I dont post that much but lurk alot everyday. Been with this blog since its inception and I for one along with alot of others on here really look forward to Robs posts. Especially in the winter. So, Rob, come back, I think atmospheric wrath is your best username on here so you should go back to that.

  10. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    We must be relentlessly on watch for any stray 70-degree temperatures this coming weekend. 😉

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    153 PM PDT MON MAR 25 2013

    …LONG TERM…WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…FEW CHANGES NEEDED AS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT LENDS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN ON SUNDAY…BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DECAYING SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY…WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY THE AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT AS THE SPLIT TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE THE LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERLY OR AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME TO SET UP OVER THE PAC NW…FOR LESS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW COOL THE AIR EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE…AND THIS WOULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. HOWEVER…TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD…WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR POSSIBLE BY NEXT SATURDAY. IN ADDITION…WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE MILD TEMPERATURES…THE DAYTIME SURFACE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSHOWERS…ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CASCADES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BURGESS

  11. gidrons says:

    I’d be happy if the GFS margin of error was always that close 3 days out.

  12. bgb41 says:

    3/24/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at CW5474 Grants Pa( 915 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 44 at NEWPRT Cape Foul(1024 ft) & DW9913 Cheshire(466 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:25 at CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: -1 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 43 degrees
    CROOKED RIVER FE (61/18 ) (2919 ft )

  13. runrain says:

    SPRING FEVER ALERT!! NWS says this Saturday has the potential to be the warmest day of the year so far – currently forecasting 65 deg (Mark has 63).

    • Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

      Amen to that, brother. Mid 60’s & sunshine for next weekend sounds really good to me.

    • Sifton says:

      Would be nice, but wasn’t today/tomorrow supposed to be the same? Sigh…………

    • ocpaul says:

      I seem to remember Mark calling for a max high temp of 76 in March. Will the Easter Bunny be bringing that ?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I haven’t worked since Friday evening, so you can’t assign the weekend forecasts to me. However, I will claim that (likely incorrect) March high temp forecast.

    • W7ENK says:

      I dunno Mark, there’s still a chance that the Almighty Magical Chocolate Egg laying Baby Jeebus Bunny will weasel down your chimney and leave a 76 at PDX under your pillow on Sunday… err, sumthin’ like that. o_O

      It could happen.

  14. pappoose in scappoose says:

    We must stay on watch for burrito wrapper reflections! Hahaah!

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    220 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013

    ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS
    AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MIDWEEK…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah!

      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
      904 AM PDT SUN MAR 24 2013

      ” WATCH FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SHOWERS THIS WEEK.”

  15. I’m not sure what to do. It’s not hailing/snowing/graupeling/pouring rain outside.

    49 feels pretty warm when there isn’t hardly any wind. Yesterday maxed at 45 with a low windchill of 32 in 2:33 in the afternoon.

  16. W7ENK says:

    Interesting stuff, thanks Mark!

    I’ve worndered for a while now about keeping track of the actual values like this, then comparing them to the models at the various forecast hours leading up to, then coming up with an averaged margin of error for each model, each run. It would be interesting to then work one into a forecast to see if it verifies any better with the MoE added in. I wonder if the MoE would be negative in the winter and positive in the summer, mayhaps? Certainly out at hour 240!

  17. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Mark,

    Thanks for these tidbits! I wish someone had a spreadsheet like TWC uses to verify hurricane track/intensity, for our storms here. That gives a really nice comparison when it shows what was predicted by model, and what verified. Maybe you could work that into your report card segment to grade the models for accuracy? Or a blog for weathertainment when the weather is slow. Again, thanks for all your hard work!

  18. bgb41 says:

    3/22/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:55 at BROOKINGS( 79 ft)
    Low: 39 at Port Orford(0 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:14 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft)
    Low: 7 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 31 degrees
    BEND WATERSHED (42/11 ) (5330 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    1.06″ at Astoria Regional(10ft)

  19. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I really like pure weather geek info!

  20. You could call the resolution toward a less-cold airmass “Late March Arctic BUST 2013,” because those 2-3C difference in 850mb temps made all the difference between the “big cold snap” we were expecting, and the “garden variety chill” we actually got.

    I was REALLY hoping for some nights down in the mid 20s at The Dalles coupled with a couple sunny days with highs only 45-48!

  21. bgb41 says:

    Mark Nelsen, when is our next podcast? I love those.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      The last one came out while I was on vacation. We just recorded a good one today with Joe Rainieri; that should be out early next week.

    • oldwxwatcher says:

      Mark, will Joe Rainieri join your weather team, be a reporter, or both? And when does Amy Troy start working the late weekday news shows with Wayne Garcia?

  22. bgb41 says:

    Had about 5 different hail/graupel showers today. Currently 32.
    Noticed that PDX tied a record low max for the day of 46 degree set
    also back in 1994.

  23. Another light snow shower is moving through, the ground is now covered with a light dusting…

    Picked up 1/2″ of snow this morning.

  24. All winter the models have been a bit too cold it seems. This just a continuation of the trend.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      At least the GFS and ECMWF were a little closer. I’ve noticed over the years, and especially this year, that the NAM is often too low at first, then warms up slightly as the event gets closer.

  25. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Now we have the cold but no moisture to for the goods.

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