Cold Models

March 22, 2013

This is pure weather geek info below, ignore this posting if you aren’t a geek!

Earlier this week I had noticed how unusually cold models were.  This afternoon I wondered…how did they do?  I had some time this evening, so I figured this would be a better use of my time than Facebook or planning the next vacation. 

Take a look at the 850mb temperature forecasts; that’s the temperature (in celsius) around 4-5,000 ft.  The forecasts are for the past 3 days leading up to today.  So all model forecasts under “5am” are for 5am Friday going back 3 days.  The actual conditions are from the twice daily balloon sounding over Salem.

 

5am

5pm

Actual SLE 850mb Temp Today

-6.7

-5.7

 

 

 

FCST ON THURSDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-8

-8

12z GFS

-7

-6

12z ECMWF

-8

 

FCST ON WEDNESDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-9

-8

12z GFS

-7

-6

12z ECMWF

-7

 

FCST ON TUESDAY

 

 

12z NAM

-9

-9

12z GFS

-8

-7

12z ECMWF

-8

 

The NAM was definitely too cold, but even the other models ended up slightly on the cool side.  They did improve a bit as the “event” got a little closer.  You would expect (hopefully) numerical modeling to latch onto reality a bit more as we get closer too.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen