Warmest Day of 2013

March 12, 2013

A nice warm day today, even with mostly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles here and there.  62 is one degree higher than the 61 we’ve hit a couple of times:

PLOT_Highs_Metro

It looks like the mild temps continue for two more days, then back to average or below average temps over the weekend.  It’s still interesting that models can’t seem to agree on what to do with Sunday and Monday.  The 18z GFS ensemble chart shows the operational run around -4 degrees at 850mb, but a large cluster of solutions continue to show temps up around +5 to +10 on St. Patrick’s Day:

tseries_850t_000-384_Portland

The 12z ECWMF is similar, showing a good cluster of solutions around -5 on St. Patrick’s Day, the operational about -4, and a whole bunch of them suddenly jumping temps (or keeping them) between +5 to +10 later Sunday and Monday.  It’s rare to have such disagreement just 5 days out. 

tseries_850t_000-360_Portland

It’s a matter of how deeply the cold trough digs down across the western part of North America Sunday and Monday.  If it stays farther north, we remain much warmer, if it comes right down over us, snow levels around 2,000′ or a little lower.

Regardless, it seems that we’re headed for cooler than average weather next week.  That’ll be the week just BEFORE Oregon’s Spring Break.  I’m sure we’re getting the cool weather out-of-the-way early so it’ll be 60-70 each day DURING Spring Break…right.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen