Tuesday Evening Update: Boring Alert!

Wow, those weather maps look even worse today…just Dullsville for the next week or maybe two!

Only a moron would say Winter 2012-2013 is dead on February 5th (on TV at least), but it’s looking like this season has a terminal case of something that isn’t healthy at all. 

It’s just about safe to say we won’t have an arctic blast for the 2nd consecutive winter.  And you can probably cross freezing rain in the Portland area off your list too.

Models are generally looking milder and milder compared to the last 3 days.  The 18z GFS totally yanked out any chance of snow/cold chances in the 16 day period; even the ensembles have come around to milder. 


The 12z ECMWF was still relatively cold though, at least some of its ensembles were:


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

102 Responses to Tuesday Evening Update: Boring Alert!

  1. PaulO says:

    Blizzard warning up now for Newark/New York northward.
    Where’s ours?

  2. The next several days looks like the atmosphere stays cool enough to avoid an inversion and fog, even under fairly high pressure.

  3. Longview - 400 ft says:

    Does anyone know of any locations in or around the Boston area for snow watching on cams?
    If it is true with the amount they are supposed to get why not watch from afar?
    True? True!!!!

  4. cgavic says:

    Surprise! Woke up, went out drive off, only to find out it was 31 degs and heavy ice on windows and doors. But clear skies.

  5. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I like the trend. Looks like a graupel kinda day!


    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      NWS says limited moisture in the valley:

      National Weather Service Portland or
      844 am PST Thursday Feb 7 2013

      Short term…a low spinning offshore will result in periodic rain
      and mountain snow today. The showers will be most frequent along the coast this morning…and across the interior mountains in the afternoon. There will be less showers for the Interior Valley with some areas seeing hardly any rain…and others possibly a few hundredths of an inch. All in all quantitative precipitation forecast will be light today.
      The low is ushering colder air over the area and snow levels will
      lower to between 1500 and 2000 feet. However the light quantitative precipitation forecast will hinder snow accumulations and impacts at these lower levels. The
      atmosphere is quite quite unstable and cannot rule out the
      possibility for an isolated thunderstorm offshore and over the coast today.

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      I really like instability in the atmosphere…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:


  6. JJ97222 says:

    Hey we can all watch it snow this weekend on tv in the Northeast!!!!!! Stayed tuned for 2 feet in some places or just go to mount hood for a snow ball.

  7. bgb41 says:

    2/6/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:57 at CW3067 Eugene( 427 ft)
    Low: 45 at BROOKS(187 ft)

    High:23 at Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 7 at ALLISON (5320 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
    ALLISON (40/7 ) (5320 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.77″ at CW6568 Charlesto(38ft)
    0.74″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    0.69″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    0.68″ at KC7RJK-3 Deadwoo(400ft)

  8. TygrrLilley says:

    Snow hope springs eternal…especially since Vancouver had unexpected snow twice this Winter. Still, I will continue to pray for low snow, even if it gets me nowhere. Otherwise, I’ll simply head for the hills. =)

    • Ron says:

      Have they even been right once this year? Their long range junk has been pretty bad. Accuweather is nothing short of a mess, but then even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

    • Brian in Bellingham says:

      That is not “Accuweather” making the forecast. That is the long range Euro model. And it has been somewhat accurate. Don’t knock Accuweather for this, IT IS THE SAME MODEL that Mark posts here sometimes for the really long range. So if you criticize Accuweather, you need to criticize Mark as well.

  9. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp-anom.php?begmonth=1&begday=1&begyear=2013&endmonth=1&endday=30&endyear=2013&submitted=Animate+Selection

    1. Horseshoe of cool SST’s NE Pacific consistent with negative PDO
    2. Cold SST E equatorial pacific, looks La Ninaesque to me

    These signs point to eventual descent into cold wet unsettled spring (again)!

    • Ron says:

      Does the Weather Channel use the same models? I didn’t think Accuweather was very accurate. When I compare their 5-7 day forecasts with Marks, NSW or even Wunderground they often seem to be in another playing field, so I stand corrected but am curious about TWC.

  10. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Now I’m so bored, I’m going to look back through the last 100 years for our most snowless blocks of winters’, just to see what was on the other side. My theory about negative PDO’s, are that they start slow, but the payoff is better after the 1st 5 years. Of course, our data sample is not that great, maybe only going back through 5 or 6 cycles of PDO shifts since 1890’s? So, nothing too scientific, but a nice gloomy day project none the less.

  11. WEATHERDAN says:

    You guys really get me. All this enldless whining about the weather. You should ask the people in the rest of the country how they feel about our weather. Most of the the rest of America has been in a terrible drought. Two October hurricanes have devastated the Northeast. Massive springtime outbreaks of Midwest tornadoes have killed over a thousand people since 2011. Summertime heatwaves over many parts of our nation are killing crops and people. Yet day after day I read about how cloudy and foggy and rainy it is out here in Oregon. If any of you had lost a house or your livelyhood or a loved one to the weather perhaps you wouldn’t complain so much. It’s one thing to be a weather geek. We all are on this blog. But let’s put this in perspective. We have just about the best overall weather of any place in America right here in the Pacific Northwest. Plenty of mountain snow for drinking water and farmers. No hurricanes or tornadoes to devastate our cities. No heatwave with oppressive humidity in the summertime. Not many episodes of lowland snow or ice storms that paralyze our cities commerce and cause untold misery to it’s inhabitants. So it’s boring here in the wintertime is it. What about the storms at the coast. The blizzards in the mountains. Or the temperatures well below zero East of the Cascades. How about the 100 MPH winds in the Columbia rive Gorge. I’ve traveled all over this country in all seasons and I consider this to be the best place to live. And as some bloggers have said even today, if you don’t like the weather here there is a bus, a train, or a plane headed out somewhere else all the time. As for me I will stay here and enjoy our boring weather.

    • Ben T says:

      I’m not saying I want all of that. I just want snow. And it’s exciting when the PNW gets snow when we rarely ever do. It’s just a nice change of pace, it’s not like I lose sleep over it.

    • Garron near Washington Square says:


      I fully agree that we are “lucky” in the loss of life/property, ect . It is humbling when you experience a disaster or talk with those who have survived or experienced terrible/traumatic events. My grandparents were from tornado alley, and lived in fear even after the moved to the PNW. They could look at the sky and know when really damaging winds were coming, or snow ect.
      However, people that relish in severe weather phenomena, could be the next people to be able to help predict an event, and save lives. I am sure that not one of the severe weather chasers has ever enjoyed personal loss of life or property. But, thanks to weather spotters and their bravery to put them selves in harms way, we have increased the warning time for tornadoes from a few minutes to 20+ miutes, and tracks that hurricanes might take to make sure we evacuate people properly.
      Yes, I know we sound like we are wishing for hurricanes, and tidal waves, blizzards, and heatwaves, but no one on here wishes that people perish. More like scientists wanting to study a disease in order to find a cure. Or simply to study something we have little understanding of, or control over. Having the ability to use the internet as a collective mind means that we can learn that much faster about meteorology, and yes we tend to geek out about the what if’s. Sometimes unfortunately, tragic events have led to saving lives in the future. Imagine if we hadn’t discovered radar’s ability to see clouds in WWII, or the terrible earthquakes that have led to cities being built to withstand the next big one. Imagine what we might be able to do in just 20 years? With the advancement of weather models, and the ability to use the internet, we may see a day sooner than later that a weather related tragedy will be almost unheard of.
      Sorry, not picking on you or anyone else that feels the same way. I am just thankful for all those who are as passionate about the weather as most of us here, and thankful that in my short 42 years on this planet, that we’ve made great progress, and have all these wonderful tools at our fingertips.

    • runrain says:

      I…just want…a good thunderstorm…now and then.

    • napapjd says:

      Pshaw. The weather here sucks.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Dan, I’ll agree. I lived in TN for a bit in ’77. Our water was pumped from a well and if it didn’t rain we didn’t have water. We were lucky enough to have a creek on the property, so we lugged water up from there to water the garden, flush the toilet, do dishes, etc. It wasn’t fun, but it gave me a great appreciation for rain.
      UNSTOPPABLE!! 🙂 Haa.

    • Mule-Estacada says:

      Well said Weatherdan, the majority of the doom wanters on this blog must live at home with no responsibilities or no real assets to worry about cuz mom and dad take care of everything, the storms some of the people hope for and whine when it doesn’t happen can be devastating to our communities, especially to the elderly and the shut ins, so Weatherdan well stated!

    • dothgrin says:

      One of the reasons I love it here. Yes, it rains, but I lived in Phoenix for six years, and for those who are from there, 100+ weather from May until October sucks more than rain from October through May (or June). I can get out much more in this mess than I could in Phoenix…watching my running shoes sink into the pavement…nope. Oh Albuquerque (32 years). Yeah, all is fun from September until March with the freaking winds for two to three months…dust…dust…and more dust. Oh, wait for it. Too day and suddenly there are fires everywhere, so it is dry with smoke in the air. Midwest? Hail damage, tornadoes and drought. Yep. Love it here, but would like a nice snow storm!

    • W7ENK says:

      Nothing like blowing things way out of proportion and jumping to some outrageously erroneous conclusions… bravo! Go back to your respective holes, please. –__–

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Dang, Erik. How was that slice of grouchy pie you had?

    • W7ENK says:

      Sorry. I’m sick, which makes me grumpy. I’m going to sleep now.

    • Mule-Estacada says:

      Lol!!! What does being a taxpayer have to do with the weather??? U guys kill me!!! Lol!!! Maybe the forecast shuld read a 90% chance of your property taxes are going to go up with a 10% chance of the City cutting back!!

  12. pmbalmforth says:

    We will always have Dec. 2008….

    • If I could choose a place, to be frozen in time….

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      That was a magical time and a dream come true!!

    • lilfoot123 says:

      Yes that was nice! Well all we haven’t seen it all yet! We have had snow the end of March so funny as my former neighbor almost cried as he’d never had snow on his birthday March 31st! I laughed like crazy when it snowed the day before birthday this year Jan. 1st! Well thank Mother Nature we are getting what the NE will get Friday! No thank you! I like my PNW weather. I too yearn for snow each year! I lived two years in Lansing not ever again! Grew up in Spokane true PNW-er! So to clarify not all of us bloggers & lurkers live with mom & dad! Please be a bit more respectful in your comments thank you! I am contributing tax payer so be nice!

  13. Ben T says:

    Any model updates? Something that says maybe it’s 9 days away instead of 10?

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      Well on Feb 14th on the 00z GFS it looks rather cool with some moisture, and this is only 8 days out 😉 By the way it looks more like a 1000′ snow level event on this one run, just saying that it’s a start and it’s not on the infamous “Day 10”

  14. funny that the Northeast is dealing with discrepencies in the weather models as well…


    • Alan says:

      Go RPM model!! At least somebody will get some snow. Too BAD it’s 3,000 miles from here.

    • W7ENK says:

      I wish we had this particular problem.

      And, Mark sites the RPM model all the time, it seems to perfom exceptionally well at nailing down the finer details in the immediate range, within 24-48 hours, even out to 72 hours quite often. Last winter it was pretty much spot on with what minimal snowfall parts of this area saw.

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      Mark never “sites” the RPM, sunshine.

    • W7ENK says:

      You’re right, my C has one too many curves in it. Blame it on FFS, spell-check masking and a lack of the ability to modify posts once they’re sent. Thanks anyway though, sweetheart. 😉

  15. PaulO says:

    18z GFS lala land alert?

    • Ben T says:

      There’s a big chance in the 24 hour forecast that there will be an arctic blast that will be 10 days out.

  16. W7ENK says:

    Get ready… it’s not going to snow any more this season!


    This is turning into a lame winter and the upcoming weekend and early next week should leave us completely high and dry.

    “Turning into”? Cliff must live closer to Alaska and the North Pole than most of us do, or something, ya know, Seattle and all…

    Portland’s winter was lame before it even began. In my neighborhood, we’ve been waiting over 4 years now for accumulating snow. Sadly, my neighbor’s six year old doesn’t even know what snow is (too young to remember December 2008), and I fear he’ll be too old to enjoy it the by the time sled-able/snowman-able snow comes back around. Imagine, going your entire childhood living in NW Oregon without ever seeing snow in your yard?! Mayhaps poor driving habits and inflated real estate prices aren’t the only things Californians have been bringing up here with them??? 😦

    • *BoringOregon* says:

      Yea, but no matter what they say about the weather 2 weeks away. I thank they still can’t even guess whats going to happen in 24hrs from now.

    • Sifton says:

      Agreed, but I’ll even give the local ‘good guys’ 48 hrs. No offence there at all Mark.

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      It’s sad. PDX used to get a lot of snow. Dec 08 was the last real snow we had in town. We’ve been below normal in snowfall 11 of last 13 years.

  17. David B. says:

    “This is turning into a lame winter…” — Cliff Mass

  18. *BoringOregon* says:

    Sry mark, but it does not get any more Boring then living in Boring! At least we don’t live in Boston where there saying a foot or more snow in Boston !?!?

    • Ben T says:

      Um, what’s wrong with a foot of snow?

    • David B. says:

      If you want to live somewhere where a foot of snow is more than a once-in-a-generation event, you’re living in the wrong place and perhaps should consider moving to New England.

  19. Ben T says:

    I’m to the point where I think Winter is most likely over, but there is the irrational part of me saying just wait something is just around the corner and around the corner and around that corner and then walk a mile and it’s around that corner.

  20. Maybe this is just me, but I have to say this is turning out to be one of the least exciting winters in my 34 years.

  21. Jake says:

    Seems like good news to me. I like plants much better than I like cold weather. Maybe some 70-80 degree spring days and 80+ all summer long? A real spring starting tomorrow would be a welcome reprieve.

    • Chris s says:

      Welcome reprieve from what?? Seriously, if you want warm and dry all year round maybe you should move?? Just sayin.😏

    • Sifton says:

      A welcome reprieve from dark, cold, wet & gloomy that’s what! (just sayin) Bring on some 60’s+ baby!!

      • Ben T says:

        I’ll be very happy if we have a wintry spring if it means we have a great dry 2 months of summer.

  22. Most of us have been looking for winter 10-15 days from now.
    But, ironically, winter probably ended 10-15 days ago.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      This is the COMMENT OF THE DAY! Could end up being the comment of the month?

    • Ben T says:

      Or some unexpected snow storm happens a week from now.

    • W7ENK says:

      BenT, you have a better chance of being struck by an airliner falling from the sky because it was knocked down by a meteorite that was chipped off one of the Jovian satellites by a disabled alien spacecraft that was accidentally sucked through a wormhole because it got lost on it’s way here to Earth on a mission to bring the PNW lowlands 4 years worth of back snow deficit… Close, but not close enough. If you need more details, Kyle should be back soon.

    • Chris s says:

      Lol Erik 😄 too funny.

    • W7ENK says:

      “Hopelessly optimistic”. That is the most accurate use of that word I have ever heard on here, thank you for being so honest, not just with all of us, but with yourself as well! 😀

      • Ben T says:

        I mean how else can you be in the Northwest? The weather and the sports around here warrants it. Not that you don’t get let down a lot though.

    • germantownsummit1000' says:

      There’s other ways you can be besides hopelessly optimistic…

      …like hopelessly pessimistic (two words, BTW).


      • Ben T says:

        Well, what’s the point of being pessimistic when you can be optimistic? Why be down all the time?

    • Erik, LOL. Your ‘better chance’ comment hit the nail on the head.

    • W7ENK says:

      I only speak truth, even when some don’t want to hear it.

  23. gidrons says:

    The Euro 00z isn’t much better. People in Portland city limits and Milwaukie may as well jump

  24. CFS weeklies suggest trend to cold late February early March. Maybe too late for true “arctic blast” but consistent trend of cold late winter/spring, maybe some low elevation snow potential. OK if you live next to the steel bridge, start eyeing your fork. Otherwise, cross your fingers

    • David B. says:

      Great. Another March snow that comes when it’s too warm to last any real time. To revamp an earlier analogy, that’s like pouring half a bottle of Dom Perignon down the toilet.

  25. Mountain Man says:

    I am not so pessimistic. Even up here at 1,172 ft. near Skamania (usually call it 1,150 ft. when commenting) only one winter has underperformed for snow out of 8 (which was 09/10 (-Dec. for cold) only brought real snow once during the surprise snow event we all got.)) My snow totals for the last 8 years…
    12/13 – 11” (snow on the ground before Xmas that just wouldn’t ever really go completely away until about 10 days ago)
    11/12 – 66.25” (almost half of that in March, though 21” of that in January in just 10 hours, between mid Jan and very early March, yielding no snow at all)
    10/11 – 96.5” (very snowy up here though I know often just a few hundred feet made a big difference, and a huge 2’ snowfall the last day of Feb. and first day of March plus 1’ in Nov. as part of that total, also .5” of sticking snow on May 1st)
    09/10 – 7” (very cold December bottoming out at 5 degrees, but little snow, 5” in the surprise late Dec. snow and otherwise .5 in early Dec. + 1.5 in April)
    08/09 – 79.75” (snow on the ground from the epic event until late March with the help from a few other snowy one night events, then a few 1”ers in March and first ½ of April made it feel like I lived at 2,500 ft.)
    07/08 – 55.5” (lots of little events but a 2+’er on Feb 2nd that just buried us out here)
    06/07 – 21.0” (several very small events added up, but all were early or late season, a very boring winter mid season ((like this year))
    05/06 – 16.75” (another boring winter, with only two actual snow events in Dec. and Jan. and just a bunch of 1”ers otherwise that eventually added up to something still pathetic for where I live)
    I lived at 550 ft. on the hill in West Linn during the 04-05/03-04/02-03/01-02 winters. They all seemed pathetic except for late Dec. 03 and early Jan. 04.The point is… even when you purposefully love snow so much (that’s me), you move deep into the western gorge at almost 1,200 ft., you have your good years and your bad years and annoying years like this one. Hey, I didn’t notice it so much through my 30 years of living in the low lands, that sometimes (or maybe it’s just due to colder springs more recently), that not only do seasons lag way behind in the pacific north west, but sometimes a little snow action actually happens when the atmosphere starts to warm and our weather patterns become more progressive. It would be late March before I put an absolute fork in anything snow-wise, even in the lowest elevations. What was it? March 05 that most of the metro schools were closed for a snow day in mid March? If all you care about is bitter cold, then yes winter is about over. If you want snow, even just a few inches of wet snow, then we have many weeks of winter potential left and things sometimes, if not often get interesting in the late moments of the snow season. After many years of following the models and patterns, I have noticed, we have had an enormous and increasing number of dead mid-winters. Give late winter a chance please. Of course, I love some early spring sun too, so don’t get too carried away with your winter wishes please.

  26. JJ97222 says:

    Just wait will this year be like the last 3 with terrible springs or are we finally going to see a beautiful spring leading to a nice summer one can only hope for more sun than rain.

  27. Alan says:

    Now TWC has the PNW “much colder” for February! Why do they say that? Still showing “colder” for March. Also commented the EURO is the best model. Whatever.

  28. bgb41 says:

    2/5/2013 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    High:57 at DW7930 Seaside( 7 ft) & AGNESS2(247 ft) & CW5302 Roseburg(410 ft)
    Low: 47 at BROOKS(187 ft) & PACCTY-2 Pacific(28 ft) & DW8735 Yachats(92 ft) & CW8449 Charlesto(322 ft) & Port Orford(0 ft)

    High:27 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft)
    Low: 17 at ANTELOPE (6460 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 26 degrees
    CW8140 Spray (54/28 ) (1772 ft )
    CRANE PRAIRIE (48/22) (5500 ft)
    ALLISON (44/18) (5320 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.91″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)

  29. Chuck on My Scott says:

    How does mountain snow look?

  30. Pbo9 says:

    Second zone 9 winter in a row. I’m seriously doubting this so called negative pdo.

  31. Marcus says:

    Wait ten days!!!!:)

  32. Pmbalmforth says:

    17th looks chilly! Just 12 days away!

  33. W7ENK says:

    Now Mark, if you had only taken my advice from last year and “stuck a fork” in this pathetic excuse for a winter back during your presentation at the ‘What Will The Winter Be Like’ meeting at OMSI last fall, you would have been right, and could have saved yourself all the heartache and embarrassment, but NOOoooo… 😆

  34. Chris s says:

    1st. And Mark, just do it. After all, isn’t it “First, Live, Local”.😁😄 You will be the trend setter, others will follow.

  35. W7ENK says:

    Booooooring… :yawn:

  36. Ben T says:


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