For the hardcore wx geeks, this is for your eyes only.
Here are the Week 1-4 ECMWF monthly run maps from last night’s 00z run. I get these on Monday and Thursday afternoon. Looks rather mild for the first half of February. But first, the 360 hour GFS ensemble average of 500mb heights, that’s 15 days out from this morning’s 12z run:
Now the 4 weeks of ECMWF, notice the 2nd week isn’t much different than the GFS above, they are both keying in on a sort “Rex Block” pattern…kind of: