For the Geeks

Monday 4pm…

Last night’s monthly ECMWF run maps; Week 2 through Week 4.  That takes us through the 1st half of February:




And the 12z ECMWF 850mb ensemble chart:


Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

37 Responses to For the Geeks

  1. You guys are too funny. Never met a bunch of people in my life where their moods are so affected from weather disappointment. I guess this is why it is your true calling. I love the weather but don’t let it get me down (except for months of gloom). Considering a “Normal” winter is simply cold rain and early darkness I look at this sun (well up here) as a great thing. It is almost as rare as snow to have 3-4 days in a row of sun. Take the time to enjoy it versus worrying about the snow we don’t have. When it is crappy in Spring I will remember the nice days in January we had. For those who get near suicide and pissy you need to move up 500-1000ft. You will get winter every year. Lot’s of cheap property these days.

    • Ben T says:

      You see that’s the great part about snow around here. Sure, we can move up to 500-1000 ft but there is something dare I say magical around here if it dumps snow around the 0-400 ft mark. If we had it all the time, we wouldn’t enjoy it as much.

  2. EY (Oak Grove) says:

    Am I the only one here worried about Spring after looking at those maps?

    They look awfully familiar: about average and dry. Just like the last X amount of Februaries have (what? Since 2001?) The last few years when February has been dry and about average/mild; we’ve had insanely cool and wet Springs.

    It’s almost insulting: We’re struggling to get decent Winters and it’s followed up by offensively terrible Springs.

  3. kcteach Gresham 500' says:

    Went to Bend for the weekend, which was beautiful. When we drove back today around 10 am it was clear and cold, no frost. When we came over the hill on 97 overlooking Madras, there was a huge cloud banked up against the northern valley-there was a strong south wind. Looked almost brownish, like the sand clouds that hit Phoenix. Driving into Madras, any brush or trees had a crystalline frost on it. As we traveled north of Madras to the flatland, visibility was about 150 feet and we saw lonely snowflakes falling. Freezing fog was incredibly thick, like an Ansel Adams black and white, very think on any plant life, but nothing on the ground or rocks. Once we got to the approach to the Mt. Hood area, it cleared out again. What an amazing drive.

  4. Marcus says:

    Wow snow starting Wednesday-sunday on KGWs weather app???? Not sure where they are getting that!

  5. IceCold says:

    This winter has been just another in a line of crappy ones since 2008. Let’s face it, we live in an area where it is nearly impossible to get a good snow event. The snow gods just bend over and fart heavily on PDX….they keep dousing us with hot air.

  6. Lurkyloo says:

    Windy, not breezy, here now. And cold as heck. Hate the wind-chill.

  7. Nona says:

    Does anyone know why NW Cornell was blocked for entrance at NW Lovejoy this evening? Was it weather related?

  8. MasterNate says:

    Put a fork in winter. Bring on the BBQ’s, camping and long warm summer days!

  9. Is the shuttle to the cliffside ready to board?

    • Lurkyloo says:

      Not yet. But I’ll be selling shuttle tickets at that one pizza place that Erik is not telling anyone about. On Thursday apparently. 🙂 😉

  10. karlbonner1982 says:

    It will be interesting to see next week’s weeklies, because I have to get my False Spring Outlook ready by Groundhog Day…

  11. Marcus says:

    -31 in international falls Minnesota tomorrow morning and we can’t even get snow grrrrr!

  12. W7ENK says:

    Welp, aside from that one random ensemble member, all signs point to springtime once tomorrow night’s system pushes through.

    It was fun while it lasted, I guess we’ll try again for snow next winter. Fifth time’s the charm, right? Or do we have to wait for lucky number seven??

    I think after tomorrow night/Wednesday, and the pizza thing on Thursday, I’mma hang this thing up for a bit. No sense in beating a horse that’s been dead for four winters now. I’ll come back around once thunderstorm season kicks into gear…

    • Lurkyloo says:

      What pizza thing on Thursday?

    • You’re not gonna hang up anything. You’re stuck just like this eternal inversion. Just like the rest of us hopeless characters here! 😉 Weather geeks never die, they just ride out to sea on the never ending tide of the next model run.

    • Tim Williams says:

      Get a life W7, geez.

    • runtmc says:

      Is that a promise?

    • runrain says:

      As the famous Eagles song states: You can check out anytime you like, but you can NEVER leave!

    • W7ENK says:

      @Lurky: Stark Street Pizza, 7pm Thursday, Steve Pierce posted about it last week.

      @McRunt: Ei ole, aga miks ei sulle hammusta mu pepu, kuradi türa.

    • David B. says:

      I guess Estonian insults make it past the filters on this forum.

    • W7ENK says:

      It would appear so.

      People need not get their panties all in a twist, sometimes the truth hurts. You can’t change reality, especially when it’s staring you right in the face.

      Should I wait until April 30th before dragging this comment back up and reminding everyone how “negative” and “pessimistic” I was being, when so many others were still clinging to their silly hope for a massive snow event that never came??

      Pssh, don’t kid yourselves.

  13. ocpaul says:

    I’m a positive person. I reject the negativity of your ensembles.
    Bring me something better. And…include cold and snow. Now please, take them away and bring something better.

  14. *BoringOregon* says:

    Well I would take this warm mild weather then what there having on the east coast sounds like Boston is going to get hit hard there saying about a foot of snow so I don’t mind this stuff !

  15. Greg Carstens says:

    We might as well stuck with the ridge around here for another almost two weeks. This pattern laid out here in the maps is just about as exciting…lol

  16. Fork it, it’s all over. Bring on spring and a nice 65 F day.

    • Lurkyloo says:

      You said, “Fork it …” That’s good enough for a smile today. Nothin’ else to grin at.

  17. Ben T says:

    Does anyone know a snow dance?

  18. Ben T says:

    Sounds like a snowstorm in March again…

  19. WEATHERDAN says:

    Good chance of zr in Salem Tuesday night. Maybe snow in the foothills by Friday. Sure don’t see a big warmup anytime soon.

  20. Marcus says:

    Blahhhhhh! No Bueno:(

  21. gidrons says:

    Not what I was hoping for

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