WE”RE ON SNOW WATCH!
Sounds exciting, but you know what that means…in this case just some real light stuff early Thursday. Most likely kids won’t be sledding on inches of snow tomorrow morning. In fact it’s unlikely we get even as much snow as we saw back in mid December. BUT, we’ll see snowflakes in the air again and in Portland that’s exciting!
THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT:
We go mostly dry, just a few rain showers through 8pm, then nothing going on through most of the rest of the night. Ice on roads probably won’t be a problem with not much falling out of the sky, but something to watch. Low around 34.
TOMORROW MORNING 6-9 AM:
A burst of showers may arrive, if so it would be all snow and could stick. The main issue is there just isn’t a lot of anything falling.
Lowest elevations: NOTHING TO A DUSTING
Near/above 1,000′: DUSTING TO 1″ (could be some snow-covered roads at the top of the West Hills/Mt. Scott/Sandy etc…)
THE REST OF TOMORROW:
Partly cloudy with a flurry or shower possible, a real quiet weather day. High near 40
Here is the snow accumulation forecast from our RPM model (18z version), it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a snow day for the kids or teachers:
I’ll blog later about the possibility for snow BEYOND tomorrow and Friday…
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Just went to the store and the car was all frozen. Roads still appear OK, but it’s dropping quick! Could def get icy tonight, I still have puddles.
33 here now and streets still have a little moisture on them. Uh oh.
I bet Mark is pacing in front of the green screen as we speak wondering” do i say
Snow or not” ” will there be utter chaos”… ” cant wait to get home and watch final Jersey Shore episode”
The new 00z GEM just proved the 00z GFS was indeed weird and an outlier, also shows nice moisture even for Sunday morning. :)
If the ridge is supposed to drift east I can’t see energy digging south along 130 W when the ridge axis is at 140 W, you know? ….. So a track just offshore or right along the Coast makes the most sense to me.
And is that what we want Rob? The one that makes the most sense to you?
Yea the GFS and especially the Euro are too biased when they dig troughs to much SW. There is no way the 00z GFS verifies.
I’m not Rob, but I think I know the answer… maybe, lol ;) Yes, if the track is just offshore would leave us in a colder offshore flow, but the low would still be close enough for perhaps some decent snow.
Hey, maybe we’ll get really lucky and the center of the low will get hung up around the mini death ridge that always gives incessant 90 degree temperatures to the South facing wall at the Tillamöök Cheese Factory?! :mrgreen:
Mmmmmmm….cheese.
exciting night joy
back lit snow shower star views
grand nature sighting
Excellent!
Winter
weather blog haikus
return to spread weather cheer;
now let’s haiku “snow”
(…pretending for the moment that “haiku” can also be a verb…)
Wonderful!
Hmmm…….
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 PM PST WED JAN 9 2013
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST DROPS DOWN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE MODELED TRAJECTORY THERE WOULD BE NO ONSHORE FLOW SO IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH FOR PRIMARILY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COAST LOOKS MARGINAL BUT PRECIP WOULD LIKELY ALSO FALL AS SNOW…PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE QUESTION MARK. THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS PRETTY DRY *BUT ALSO LOOKS PRETTY WEIRD.* **–>THE 00Z NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND WOULD SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH SNOW EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR<–**…WITH PERHAPS MORE THAN THAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY. AGAIN…MAY HAVE TO WAIT A FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE THE ANSWER IS REVEALED.
I’m just thinking any energy might dig closer to the coast given the ridge placement…. I dunno
Ridge is supposed to slowly drift east with center near 140 W. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg
Is everyone onboard with this or is a Winter Storm Watch NOT in our future?
Or wait until the event itself. -weagle
The NAM is the far superior model in the near term and that is why I love our snow chances this weekend. I am calling for a total of 3 to 5 inches down to the Willamette valley floor Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning. Those you of who live on the hills will see 6+”.
Those of us who live on the hills will see….
Any thoughts on any Arctic outbreaks. I am guessing were getting a little to far into the season (for this part of the world), unless we see something like the Omega effect(1989); I believe this is very rare though.
Thanks,
Its about, 35 and droping out here. Might have some Icy Roads in the Morning I bet. I was wondering I want to get into model riding to but there is not that many, Youtube videos on it ? I was wondering if some body could make a Youtube video explaining on how to read one just wondering??
EVERYONE WHO WANTS SNOW, WHERE YOUR PAJAMAS INSIDE OUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rally pajamas?
I sleep commando style…so…sorry cant help
@ alohabb TMI :)
GFS clearly favors SW Oregon in terms of precipitation…Medford could have itself a nice snow event…..it is fair to say, in terms of operational runs…that it is the farthest west with the low, compared to other models…ECMWF, NAM, UKMET, GEM, etc. That RPM seems to be in the GFS camp with low precip..can’t ignore it I guess.
At this point, with the Saturday evening/night event…it looks to me that western half of Willamette Valley has the best odds of snow accumulations….the Euro may have other ideas…and if the GFS trend is valid…then southern locations such as San Eugenio may score…or be dry altogether like PDX..hope not.
YAY for wet grass and pine needles!!
I expect more of these conditions throughout the weekend, and possibly some significantly higher accumulations of strong to severe disappointment.
But that’s just you.
Not everyone is huddled under the Dome.
Bitter, and all…
Hook, line and sinker. ;)
Is the latest snow talk about Thursday or Saturday? 70 miles west? RPM dry? NAM vs. GFS? Not sure which day everyone is talking about? Thanks!
Yes.
I may also add the NAM is far superior to the GFS with little fine details in the short term because its higher resolution and that way it takes into improved parameterization of surface and precipitation processes. It’s obvious to see that tonight the 00z GFS is confused, there is no way that leading system shows up out of nowhere and does that.
The NAM is a better short term model predictor because its higher resolution.
It’s a classic battle ensuing, one for the ages no doubt. NAM vs GFS. Who will win? NAM does pretty good handling these features. Oooo stay tuned oooo the plot thickens.
At least we have a plot.
Kind of weird to see that much energy digging down the backside of the ridge, but also to dig back into it especially given the ridge axis position…
One could imply the ridge offshore is a bit sturdier and may not drift east to 140 W, perhaps hang out near 145 W where it’s currently located. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/ir_enhanced/201301100400.gif
Hey Rob, if we are 72 hours out, isn’t there any consensus on the Sat. system, or are you saying that the NAM shows one thing, and the GFS another? Which one does better, this close?
Just saw your latest post…and isn’t that location pretty good for us? We don’t want it to drift east right?
Let’s announce a queen and set up carnival rides at Waterfront Park and maybe we can get the Rose Festival low to make a early appearance
Mark had better be careful that he not play into the “Half an inch in the city, OMG SNOWMAGEDDON!!!!” archetype on the news. It’s just a CHANCE for some BRIEF LIGHT snow, folks. We don’t want to set off a ‘Portland snow panic’ at the supermarkets, hardware stores and tire centers. :p
Calm down everyone, the 00z GFS is trying to follow the trend of moving the weekend systems up, so it totally doesn’t take into account the trailing system and puts all its energy on the leading system. What might end up possibly happening is both systems combing to produce a super system where we get 6+” here on the valley floor. Just something to keep an eye on, if this happens I’ll be the first one to take credit for this excellent analysis because we’ve seen systems combine before at the last minute…..
6″ is a super storm? :-) Interesting.
For the PNW it is lol.
The GFS is further west with the low than the NAM, keeping things much drier.
I did take special note that the graphic that calls for snow % says through tomorrow….and does NOT include Saturday :)
Yeah, it is further west, but not by much 70 miles? Seems to imply a possible secondary system Sunday too. Also, note it’s colder on this run with modified arctic air into eastern Washington and Columbia Basin. You watch we’ll get a dusting and much colder temps with east winds modified arctic air via Gorge.
So is our RPM, totally dry.
BOOO! Hisssss!!!
*rotten tomatoes*
I’ll take cool and dry any day. Today was much more grey than I thought it would be. Most of the day (7a-4p) was in the upper 30s with rain.
I dunno, looking at the current satellite I’d say the showers don’t shut off over night and the bigger batch coming down is faster than forecast by several hours. I’m thinking snow at very low elevations in the wee hours tonite-tomorrow. That’s good because it happens during the coldest part of the night. Bad because most of us will be snoozing away only to wake up and say “look, it snowed” as the sun peeks out and starts to melt it all away.
RPM has a dry bias. ;)
Well, I’ll be working. So maybe I’ll see something.
00z GFS has begun!
NCEP GFS
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs_area_param.php?model=gfs&cycle=20130110+00+UTC&area=namer
00z WRF-GFS
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/gfsinit.html
Feel free to play along!
I let you have all the fun!
Wohooo! I’m in! Let’s go with… massive storm with temperatures in the teens… then i’ll be satisfied. and some wind. maybe some back up generator use…yeahhhhhh
snowstorm for southern OR Friday night / Sat morn? that system is wayyy wetter in the 00z run than 18z. what a difference. hmmm….
Jordan, +1
GFS, -1. I’m not buying it… *restart*
Finally down to 35.8
Using latest model guidance
NAM mm5 00Z shows snow in southern willamette valley, about 1-2 inches tomorrow….
NAM (from NCEP) shows excellent track of low for snow for much of western oregon, from Cascades westward…with amounts of 2-5 inches possible..most on the east slopes of Coast Range….Vernonia…Forest Grove, Banks….Dallas….Corvallis look the best.
As I already mentioned…the NAM did very well with the snow event prior to Christmas.
Nice Puget Sound Convergence Zone tonight….will pay attention to WSDOT cams.
PSCZ is doing its (very local) thing tonight. 39 and nothing in Seattle, 34 and light snow in Everett, 42 and nothing in Bellingham.
Agreed.
00z MM5-NAM
Bingo! SNOW
Looking at the 3hour precip model implies to me there is more moisture(snow) on this run.
That chart looks like my bank account :{
Looking foward to wild week! Any snow will cause absolute chaos!
Ha! College report card!
So what’s up with Saturday’s snow? Is it going to be a dud like Thursday’s? Word on the street (er..TV) doesn’t sound very good. KGW says unlikely. I guess Mark will post about it soon.
NWS says it’s actually looking like a better and better chance all the time. I already posted the relevant excerpt from the Seattle forecast discussion. Here’s the excerpt from the PDX discussion:
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST DROPS DOWN ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A TRAJECTORY NOT TOO FAR FROM THE COASTLINE. IF THIS IDEA CONTINUES…THERE IS A GOOD SHOT OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW LATER SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
I’d like to know what First Alert Storm Team has to say about all this.
00Z NAM at 63 hrs still shows the snow event for Saturday night…with the low on a track a bit farther west (but not too far)…which is good…should be good moisture with this…and a bit cooler.
looking really good at 72 hours….best snow would be SW WA down through Salem it looks to me…2-5 inches
Frozen Precip Alert!
Some of those showers are packing some pretty thick rain south of Canby; wiping off the windshield in chunks. It was several notches away from true snow, let alone anything sticking, but hey, it’s a start.
I live at about the 350′ elevation on bull mountain. What is the chance of getting an inch tomorrow morning, and what do you think the temperature will be tomorrow morning when the moisture comes?
It’s looking like you should do your homework.
Mark! What’s going to happen at my house?
Contact Phil Volker or Jim Little. They are meteorlogical consultants and I’m sure would be more than happy to provide you with a detailed personal forecast.
I think they only charge about $100 per hour. And there may be a minimum fee of….. ;)
I will do it for $75 an hour! No guarantees, but it will be full of colorful charts and graphs!
Would that be the windward or the lee side of Bull Mtn?
Already did my homework! :) Don’t know what you mean by windward and lee side, but i’m on the southwest side
Time for OBS? 37 outside Beaverton. Temp has dropped a good 4 degrees in the past two hours, otherwise has been steady since 8 am…
looks like lots of little showers offshore and a small feature swinging south out of coastal BC. I think we’ll get something out of this tonight, a dusting probably. Hoping some snow will still be flying when the sun rises in the morning.
Syria, Israel, West Bank and Jordan endure heavy snowfall
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2013/01/09/mideast-winter-storm-2013_n_2437186.html
And yet, we’ll be lucky to get just a dusting? There’s something wrong with this picture… :(
Erik, enough of the frowny faces, well try not to be so pessimistic or whatever…We’ll get some soon.
Looks like most of the moisture stays in the South valley. Better chance of an event there from Salem to Eugene
for now
Don’t play his little game – keep on keepin’ on, man/
Very heavy sleet shower just passed thru Bethany area.
200 ft elevation
Temp down to 33 Rain starting to change over to snow now gotta love the good ol p.s.c.z hopefully it stays put for awhile now since were finally into night time and cold air from the north.
Ok, what does pscz stand for?
Didn’t we go over this already?
Just simply wondering what it stands for…
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=pscz
And we care about the Puget Sound in Portland area?
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/02/puget-sound-convergence-zone-snow.html From cliff mas talking about the p.s.c.z
If you want to see snow since you have none yet Ryan
Think of the PCSZ as the inverse of the Milwaukie anti-winter dome.
@Ryan, I often find myself wondering that very same thing.
Pretty good enhanced activity peeling off Vancouver Is. heading south. That must be the source for a period of heavier precip in the early morning.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
I think that’s a good call, there!
A snow day Saturday in Pugetopolis? From the most recent Seattle discussion:
THE PATTERN ON SATURDAY REMAINS INTERESTING BUT ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ABOUT HALF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIG A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA IN NLY FLOW WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS. THERE ARE OTHER MODELS THAT TAKE MOST THE ENERGY OFFSHORE AND WOULD RESULT IN NO SNOW AT ALL OR PERHAPS JUST NEAR THE COAST. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL START TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE APPROACH THAT TIME PERIOD. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME LIKELY POPS TOWARD THE COAST.
We’ll see…
Now, why can’t the forecast be something like this (not so professional sounding). “Cold arctic air has completely blanketed the NW from northern washington, to northern california, as far east as Boise. Without this arctic air, we would be forecasting a wet, blustery day with 1 to 2 inches of rain for the metro area, and 3 inches in the cascades and coast. However, there won’t be a place (even at the beach) within 300 miles that isn’t covered with a large blanket of snow. This snow day will probably go down as being one of the single largest snow days in portland history, get the chains and studs on now!”
What’s that from?
This is what MY DREAM snow forecast would be, it doesn’t exist yet……December 2008 but only one day of it.
A guy at Dutch Bros told me it’s gonna snow tonight because his iPhone said so, and iPhones are always right. I reminded him of the navigation that came his phone…
Well, then it’s a done deal!
The public here gets so hysterical when snow is mentioned, its comical.
No, just the news people.
No Mark, I can assure you the public panics. I used to work at a grocery store, and the mere mention of the word snow leads to people stocking up on essentials for fear they will be trapped in their homes for weeks. 😄
I needed chips and dip :) just in case
Just went from 42° down to 35° with the ice pellet shower ice all over the ground nice! In LaCenter
Mark: was does RPM say for snow in Eugene…the 3 day regional map (18Z) is totally blank…hopefully it is not zero point zero
I think it is.
Models continue to show the ridge retrograding 21st thru 26th. — details and timing the only (usual) issue… But it is there. run after run… we’ll see. — cross your fingers I guess… Would like to see a repeat of ’08.
** What ‘will’ likely happen? — That feature keeps getting pushed back until a low pressure center undercuts it.
But I keep thinking back to the post Boringlarry had a few days ago from an AFD out of Buffalo (or somewhere over there)
As long as the cold air hasn’t already slipped into the mid-west and we just get left overs. That’s my concern.
Forecast updated for Saturday says P.M. Wintry Mix, so you think we also see sleet or freezing rain?
According to the n.w.s 1-2 inch snow tonight from north seattle up to bellingham. Than another 1-3 on staurday if it holds and happens i be surprised But excited. Temps dropped from 41 now 36 in the last 20 mins winds coming more out of the north so just maybe they will be right fingers crossed.
.1″ in Milwaukie? C’mon Mark, you know better!
That 0″ in Hillsboro ought to make Yev happy! :lol:
That’s a typo – actually, it’s -.1″ in Miltucky
Does that mean I have to give back the .1″ of slush I logged last winter?
Milw Chamber of Commerce will be handing out free magnifying glasses so that residents will be able to observe tonights snowfall. Proof of residency is required.
Hahaah! Yer killing me, runrain!
Runrain, you’re funny.
“Does that mean I have to give back the .1″ of slush I logged last winter?”
If, by “…last winter…” you mean this winter (as in Dec. ’12) then YES!
C’mon, we all know you’ve got it in a Ziploc in your freezer.
“Proof of residency is required.”
That’s observer suppression!!!
W7ENK will be handing out VooDoo donuts!
No, not December 2012, I didn’t get anything last month, so that would mean I’d have to dig back to last March to pay off any debt.
And you’re right, I have lots of ziplocks in my freezer! Strawberries, blackberries, hot dogs, ribeyes, drumsticks… lots of stuff, actually! Which one were you referring to?
“No, not December 2012, I didn’t get anything last month, ”
I’m so, so sorry. I forgot about the Dome – and I’m extra, extra sorry you didn’t get any…
…snow, that is.
Hahaha!
Are you sure it won’t be early late Thursday?
Thanks for the catch, I fixed it
delete me, and let me post again…
Not going to stick your neck out on Saturday?
Apparently you didn’t read the last sentence…
Hahaah! Apparently you can’t read either, gidrons! (Tyler likes to notify us)
Seems a perfectly valid question – Mark has not yet blogged about Saturday’s forecast – therefore he has not stuck his neck out.
Did I miss something?
‘poose – you in!
No, I just have meetings and other stuff to take care of first and that’s 3 days away. This “job thing” gets in the way of staring at the weather maps all day!
I can’t believe your blog doesn’t take priority over everything else in your life Mark. That’s really selfish of you.
lol
But I thought staring at weather models all day WAS your job, Mark?! Barring that whole Broadcast Television facetime thing, anyway.
First?!
Apparently so, as if by magic…
Congratulations?
You in!