9pm Update: Very Close to Coastline Now


Here’s a nice sat loop from the past 3 hours…


If you extrapolate the leading edge of the solid gray lower-level clouds offshore, they should hit the coastline within the hour.  That is the edge of the occlusion that should contain the very strong wind, so I’m extremely curious to see what happens with windspeeds out there when it hits from 10-11pm.  Hold on if you are at the beaches!  There has also been some lightning at times offshore in the unstable airmass to add to the drama.

Inland, wow, real calm.  In the past hour at Hillsboro, Portland, Troutdale, and Vancouver it has almost gone calm.  But Forest Grove just jumped from almost nothing to 45 mph gust suddenly.  Pressure gradient from Olympia to Eugene is holding around 9 millibars, expected to at least double 3-4 hours from now…the tension builds…

Forecast remains the same from the 1pm post:

  • High Wind Warnings are up for all of NW Oregon and our viewing area in SW Washington too.
  • Much stronger southwest wind between 10pm-2am in the western valleys.  The wind will come and go with the showers (very gusty).
  • Gusts 55-65 mph are possible, this is stronger than anything we’ve seen in our area since the Hanukkah Eve Storm in December 2006.  Possibly the strongest since the January 2000 storm.
  • Prepare for widespread power outages and downed trees.  During the 2006 storm, PGE outages topped out over 200,000 customers!  Most of those were back on within a day or so, but those of you in the outlying areas make sure your generator and chainsaw is working this afternoon.
  • Oregon/Washington Coast gets a much stronger surge of SW wind 10pm-2am.  Gusts 80-100 mph possible.

By the way, my coworkers laughed at me when I mentioned I had a chainsaw in the backseat for the drive home; but I don’t want to get stuck 1 mile from home like I almost did last January.  Can’t be too prepared.

Stay tuned…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

79 Responses to 9pm Update: Very Close to Coastline Now

  1. Brad says:

    KEUG – KPDX gradient +6.7mb


    Come and join 391 weather geeks plus Mark Nelsen in the busiest weather group on the west coast. Click here to join

    • just dont disagree with the mods or they will permanently ban you… 🙂

    • They actually don’t ban anyone

    • Ive never been unbanned, so I wouldnt know that.

    • W7ENK says:

      If I’m not mistaken, I believe Brian has only banned one person, and i think his name was Timm… mmy… … Oh… o_O

      No actually, I believe you’re thinking of another group that doesnt exist anymore?

    • bgb41 says:

      Tim was dis-respecting Mark Nelsen in my group. Why would I let anyone do that?

    • lol, you are joking right Brian? If you want to talk about what happened, send me a message on FB. Mark knows I wouldn’t do that, and that is simply not true.

    • truth is you are a control freak who got on a little power trip because he had 100 people in his group. Then the weather got boring and people started fighting. Then one member kept trying to talk about stuff non-weather related. Then Brian allowed that to happen continually (i know running a group isn’t easy, its hard to please everyone). So some of us got fed up, I started another group that only allowed weather discussion, and it served it’s purpose last winter. Now I use the other two groups on Facebook that I am not banned from.

      Brian, your last comment just goes to show that your little power trip has gone to your head, and you will go as far as to slander in order to protect your story that is a blatant lie…

      Good riddance to you and your fatal personality flaw.

      This Blog and Western FTW!

  3. runrain says:

    Mary’s Peak gusting 100 now.

  4. Brad says:

    Tidewater SW43 G72.

  5. Occlusion has just edged onshore…

    It has begun. Cya later!

  6. amy. says:

    Wow!! This dry.very windy event is odd without the mass rain here on the coast.. its eerie almost. Did i read that correctly? 80-100 mph gusts here at the coast.. come again?… ah i hate it

  7. I think I’m going to shut down and watch the Wind Storm. I mean after all, isn’t that we were hoping for? A Wind Storm to watch? Yeah. Sitting here reporting things during it isn’t going to be as fun. That is like rooting for snow/cold and while it is falling we don’t even watch it. Cya in the morning. OKAY I might be back later. lol….

  8. *BoringOregon* says:

    Lol, kgw said snow for Portland on Wednesday was I hearing right?

  9. Brad says:

    KEUG – KPDX gradient +6.0mb

  10. pappoose in scappoose says:

    The poisonous tail approaches….

  11. Brad says:

    Here we go. Wind just ramped up here in West BG.

  12. David in Otis says:

    I can confirm the lightning We left pdx and drove home via HWY18 while going over the summit there was several large flashes, ran into strong south wind and rain outside newberg calmer most of the rest of the way, calm when we got home, starting to pick up now. generator, bbq, oil lamps, candles, chainsaw ready to go.

  13. W7ENK says:

    Christopher J ‏@TrailBlazinPDX
    To put the storm into context, the current barometric pressure here in PDX is relative to a Cat 1 Hurricane. So there’s something bad coming

    10:04 PM – 16 Dec 12

  14. Updates thoughts…
    Expecting G 60-70mph and wouldn’t be too shocked if someone, somewhere between Albany and Kelso saw 80mph just as we did back in December 2006 when N.E. Salem reported 80mph.

  15. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Seeing gusts approach 70 now on the coast. Just lost my bed cover on my truck. It’s laying in the sand no damage to my truck

  16. LurkinginFG says:

    Report of a landslide just north of Pittsburg and south of Big Eddy on Hwy 47. Any word on that Vernonia folks?

  17. runrain says:

    Highest sustained winds of the night are just now hitting Lincoln City and Newport.

  18. LurkinginFG says:

    Been having several 25 – 40 mph gusts that are lasting for well over a minute here. This has gone on for the last 2 hours.

  19. Ryan says:

    Eerily calm here in north Beaverton

  20. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Been pretty calm here for a while, but it just really started to pick up!

  21. A bit breezy, peak gust 34, but looks like the action will be well to my south, so nothin exciting anticipated here. Have fun down south!

  22. Oh yes the winds are upon us here in Newport!!! Around 7pm or so we had a powerful gust that ripped apart our Greenhouse and it flew away!!! It even had a lawnmower in it and that went flying and hit our house!!! It had to be at least 100mph!!! We are butted-up against the North side of the Yaquina Head Lighthouse!!!

  23. W7ENK says:

    The center of low pressure on that sat loop looks like it’s making a bee-line for Astoria!

  24. lurkyloo says:

    Oh gosh, someone please make the power go off. My son just asked if he could watch the old “Footloose.” So not what I was planning for this evening. Oh, here we go … Hello, 1984 — right back to my senior year in HS. Arggh.

    No wind here yet. :}

    • W7ENK says:

      Go out to the garage, flip the main breaker to off, and tell him to go to bed. 😀

    • lurkyloo says:

      Better yet, I’m just going to go to bed and let my creaky-ass wall lull me to sleep. What’s up with that? Anybody else have creaky walls?

      Wow, I have so been stalking as opposed to lurking today!

    • lurkyloo says:

      Oops, I said “ass.” Sorry. Still stalking.

  25. Probably not worth mentioning, but here’s 00z GFS decoded data
    The trend towards cold continues…

    • W7ENK says:

      I hope it does! Christmas is now progressing inside the extended range, so I’d say that’s pretty much in the bag for the 25th at this point. If we can just get the snow to follow suit, that would be great! 😆

    • chris says:

      If you were to make a educated guess right now, what would Christmas eve and day forecast be?

  26. runrain says:

    Too much fun! This was almost like experiencing the calm of the eye of a hurricane.

  27. 93rd! Thanks, Mark.. The winds should ramp up very suddenly in a few hours.

  28. ocpaul says:

    Mark, I live 1 mile from Henrici at the end of a tree lined, narrow, gravel rode. My chain saw is sharp and fueled.

  29. W7ENK says:


  30. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Thank you, Mark!

    • Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

      And my husband would be bringing a chainsaw along also. Smart on a night like this!

  31. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Headed down to the beach in a bit!

  32. Roman~Snow-Zone-Monmouth, Elv. 223' says:


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