8pm Update: Storm Approaching Coastline

Here is the latest at 8pm…

For those just wanting the basics, see the previous post’s headlines, the forecast is still the same.

1.  The storm is still ON; strong and damaging wind from the occlusion hits the coast 10pm or just beyond, and into the Valleys 11pm or midnight. 

2.  Most 00z models are in and didn’t change a thing, in fact it appears the WRF-GFS is slightly stronger with incredible isobar packing centered right from Kelso to Eugene from 11pm-4am.  Peak gradient appears to be midnight to 2am.  Salem to Portland will likely see the highest gusts, possibly some 60+ gusts at official observing stations.  Our RPM has the strongest wind around 1-2am.  The WRF-GFS has a 20mb or so gradient, very impressive.

1st surge of (relatively weak) wind has passed now, peak gusts were generally 55-75 at the beaches and 30-40 here in the metro area.  Willamette Valley wind peaked between 40-50 mph.    After that first surge, there are about 8000 PGE customers out of power.

2nd surge of wind is on the way, clearly seen on all models hitting the north Coast around 10-11pm.  It should be absolutely ferocious out there as southwest winds average 50 mph with gusts in the 80+ range widespread up and down the beaches.  That will move over the Coast Range and into the Valley 1-2 hours later.

If you are in a neighborhood with large fir trees overhead, please be careful.  If you can, sleep in a part of the house that isn’t just north or northeast of a tree.

If you have to get up for work using an alarm, use your cell phone.  A lot of us may wake up to dark and cold homes!

Here are the peak gusts in the Portland Metro area from that first surge of wind:

PLOT_Wind_Metro_PeakGusts_MANUAL

 

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

50 Responses to 8pm Update: Storm Approaching Coastline

  1. Amy says:

    Bring on the storm. Happy Valley isn’t too bad yet!

  2. Brad says:

    Lincoln City cranking up again….70 mph gust.

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  4. Sifton says:

    meh………

  5. W7ENK says:

    Winds have started picking back up again in just the last few minutes. Nothing terribly impressive or alarming, but definitely noticeable outside.

    • runrain says:

      Picking back up on the coast as well. Second round coming up right after these important messages. The Scorpion Storm, brought to you by Carl’s Tree Service and Pete’s Portable Generators. Don’t laugh. Everything else in the world is sponsored now. Why not storms? Ha ha!

  6. dothgrin says:

    I just got back from a Christmas Party out near Bald Peak during the first blast. Almost turned around and went back to home, as the horizontal rain and falling branches were a bit unnerving. I notice there was a nice 51 mph peak gust at that time. Drivers need to be careful not only of the wind but of existing debris left from the first wave.

  7. alohabb says:

    Feels much warmer. Very calm. I for sure will not be able to sleep. 50-60+ gusts on the way worries me a bit. Only have 2 trees but just worried about 1 and i dont know why. Gonna be real crazy real soon

  8. Traci says:

    Hi All! Although i don’t post much other than the winter months, I do check in, and it’s nice to see the regulars posting! I know the windstorm is the priority, but I want SNOW!!! I read we may have some in the next few days maybe??? When can we start looking to see if a white Christmas is possible? Rob, hope you are well and things are going good! It was good to see you are still posting!

  9. fortyfourtrails says:

    How will the storm be in the gorge near hood river?

    • W7ENK says:

      It won’t. The Columbia River Gorge is oriented West to East, and these winds will be going South to North. The winds will likely be screaming 40 to 60+ mph over your area, about 2-3000 feet overhead. River level, not so much.

  10. vernonia1 says:

    thanks all for posting in regards to the Kyle comment. Appreciate it a lot!!!

  11. Ryan says:

    Ill take a power outage if it means a good storm!

  12. Brandy says:

    Power on! See how long it last this time. I been following this blog for about 5years now I only post a few times a year because I don’t know all the teck stuff but I love the weather! Really love the snow. I think you all give good info and I enjoy following thank you!

  13. paulbeugene says:

    Looks like Eugene/South Valley included in high wind warning…best winds I think will be from Albany N to Aurora.

    Am liking the long range…..will study that more after the storm tonight.

    My best guess for peak gust for official reporting station will be 61mph…from SLE airport. 54mph for EUG…56 for PDX

  14. Mary says:

    I don’t like this…

  15. The satellite image really shows the beauty of the dynamics of the atmosphere. Not only the storm winding up along the coast but the strong flow out of the Gulf of Alaska over the water heading in our direction. Gotta love it. Winter’s here people! Winter’s here!

  16. W7ENK says:

    Really, it’s been pretty much dead calm here for about the last hour or so. Had one really good burst of SSE wind from 6:00 to about 7:15, then incredibly torrential rain for about 10 minutes, 5 minutes of nothing, another 5 minutes of even HARDER rain, now it’s calm, quiet. I even see stars out back, between the clouds that are very rapidly moving West to East…

    It feels warm out, too.

  17. Brian *Wilsonville says:

    ALL HANDS ON DECK FOR THIS ONE! 29.23

  18. Thanks, for the update, Mark..

    I think some of us were fearing some last second bust, you know? Where the low suddenly weakens, tracks too far north, double barrel structure, but this one is just trucking along. I sure wasn’t expecting to see tonight’s 00z WRF show a max PDX-EUG of 12mb! That coupled with the occlusion and mixing, Gusts 60-70mph is what I’m expecting.

    • Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

      Rob save me some sat images etc!

    • Brad says:

      You’ve been on it for a couple of days, Rob. You don’t always see Mark come around to the board (usually we’re the one’s humbled due to over exuberance) but not this time…

  19. alohabb says:

    Its gonna be a mess!! Fo shizzle!

  20. Jeff Raetz says:

    Love that you use happy valley my parents station!

    • runrain says:

      I use it too. They’re just up the hill.

    • W7ENK says:

      I really need to get my station data online. That way you all can either see for yourselves my weather struggles, or criticize. Either way, I just should. I guess that means I need to get some form of fixed InterFacePlusTubes connected to my house though, huh?

      Maybe someday…

  21. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    It will skip you Erik, thee of little faith!!!

  22. mwbales says:

    Sounding even worse.

  23. W7ENK says:

    INCOMING!!!

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