Here is the latest at 8pm…
For those just wanting the basics, see the previous post’s headlines, the forecast is still the same.
1. The storm is still ON; strong and damaging wind from the occlusion hits the coast 10pm or just beyond, and into the Valleys 11pm or midnight.
2. Most 00z models are in and didn’t change a thing, in fact it appears the WRF-GFS is slightly stronger with incredible isobar packing centered right from Kelso to Eugene from 11pm-4am. Peak gradient appears to be midnight to 2am. Salem to Portland will likely see the highest gusts, possibly some 60+ gusts at official observing stations. Our RPM has the strongest wind around 1-2am. The WRF-GFS has a 20mb or so gradient, very impressive.
1st surge of (relatively weak) wind has passed now, peak gusts were generally 55-75 at the beaches and 30-40 here in the metro area. Willamette Valley wind peaked between 40-50 mph. After that first surge, there are about 8000 PGE customers out of power.
2nd surge of wind is on the way, clearly seen on all models hitting the north Coast around 10-11pm. It should be absolutely ferocious out there as southwest winds average 50 mph with gusts in the 80+ range widespread up and down the beaches. That will move over the Coast Range and into the Valley 1-2 hours later.
If you are in a neighborhood with large fir trees overhead, please be careful. If you can, sleep in a part of the house that isn’t just north or northeast of a tree.
If you have to get up for work using an alarm, use your cell phone. A lot of us may wake up to dark and cold homes!
Here are the peak gusts in the Portland Metro area from that first surge of wind:
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen