Storm Moving Onshore Tonight; High Winds Stay South

Big story tonight is heavy rain across southwest Oregon and strong wind likely from central Oregon down into the southeast quarter of the state.  Here in the western valleys, some rain, but totals will remain well below 1″. 

As for wind, it appears that models have been correct in not showing a rapidly deepening wave moving up the coastline.  Instead, a surface low is developing (can’t be seen in satellite imagery very well) and will track from SW Oregon up to around Pendleton before sunrise.  That’s very fast movement and there will be quite a rush of southwest wind behind it, but that will only be in the areas mentioned above. 

All we’ll see here is a gusty southwest wind kicking in behind the whole mess the 2nd half of the night.  Maybe gusts 25-35 mph.  I’m pretty confident that we don’t have a surprise windstorm for 2 big reasons:

1.  Satellite imagery is unimpressive, not showing any sudden development.

2. 4 ooz models so far look almost exactly the same.  WRF-GFS, GFS, RPM, & NAM-MM5.

A good example was the 00z MM5-GFS showing a 986 mb. low over Pendleton before sunrise.  A low in this position doesn’t give Portland or the western valleys strong wind (gusts over 40 mph):

slp_15_0000

I’m working right now for Brian MacMillan, so I’ll keep an eye on things of course through the 10pm show.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

130 Responses to Storm Moving Onshore Tonight; High Winds Stay South

  1. Tonites euro 00z will be interesting. Lookin for that big digging trough at 240 comin down from AK/Yukon. To be or not be, that is the question.

  2. 00z GFS 500mb
    FCST HR 108 – http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_npac_108_500_vort_ht_l.gif
    FCST HR 132 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_npac_132_500_vort_ht_l.gif
    FCST HR 150 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_npac_150_500_vort_ht_l.gif
    PDX-SEA thickness 519-521 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_namer_150_1000_500_thick_l.gif

    Ridge pops up a bit further west and seems to amplify sooner allowing the trough in BC to dig south a bit more efficiently. If ONLY that ridge were 5-8 degrees west.. but this is progress. Unfortunately the pattern is transitory with thickness and heights climbing after day 7

  3. paulbeugene says:

    504 thickness PDX somewhere on tonight’s GFS run…I can just feel it…..like Vader.

  4. Looking at the satellite image, I’d say the cascades are prime for a big dump tonight and early tomorrow.

  5. runrain says:

    Blog is DOA. Again. Next exciting weather: 2013? Maybe?

    • David B. says:

      A nice January 2013 arctic outflow event with snow/ice on both the transition to the arctic air and the transition back to more normal marine air, perhaps. January is I believe the most common month for significant lowland snow events to happen

  6. bgb41 says:

    ***NOVEMBER 2012 RAINFALL DATABASE***
    I have created an online database where people can input their November 2012 rainfall and then view it in an online master table. Please report your stations rainfall at the following URL. The table will show the rainfall amounts in descending order from the highest to lowest totals. Thank You for the reports…Brian Schmit

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/NOV2012RAINFALL/add.php

  7. g says:

    Hey, how did you get a hold of my wife’s picture.

  8. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      and I live in southern Oregon Cascades so I just wanna say that I do have the right to say BUST this time!

    • lurkyloo says:

      So, Timmy, I guess you’re calling it a BUST? 🙂

  9. runrain says:

    I’m changing my name to 5040Drizzle!

    Spectacular run along the banks of the Willamette this morning. The river is up and flowing swiftly. They are doing the steam locamotive rides near Oaks Park again for the holidays. That steam loco packs a punch, which you have to watch out for along the trail!

  10. 12z looks slower, but similar to 00z. Looks like a potent trough would dig into the NW USA, with similar frigid airmass, if you extrapolate beyond 240. Still a loooong ways off…… But you wouldn’t to spoil a white Xmas with having the arctic wx too soon, only to have muddy slush or worse, freezing rain, on Xmas, now would you?

  11. masterblast says:

    So why do storms look so promising and they fall apart.

  12. Nice line of showers about to hit the coast. Should provide some fun here later today. Better hurry and get those Christmas lights up!

  13. alohabb says:

    Getting kind of blustery out here. Just recorded a S gust of 24 with 5mph sustained.

  14. W7ENK says:

    Wow, what a spectacular morning! When I went to bed last night, I certainly didn’t expect to wake up to sunshine, so that was a nice surprise. 🙂

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Yeah just as sunny as any other day in Klamath Falls!! And besides, I can have winds up to 50+ mph on a SUNNY DAY.. Last night was not a storm. Heck I shouldn’t even call it a low.

      BUST!

  15. For no apparent reason….

    12z MM5-NAM 925mb/SLP model
    *1:00 PM Monday
    A weak 1004mb wave near 36 N, 143.4 W begins developmental stages.
    *4:00 AM Tuesday

    Yet another boring 996-997mb frontal wave approaches the Coast. Peak intensity also occurs here as this moves onshore to the north it weakens and gradient relaxes a bit. Yawn, same old, same old it seems.

    Wind Gust model
    *4:00 AM Tuesday

    Nice swath of 60-70kt gusts along the central-southern Oregon Coastal headlands. These high winds do not spread northward and only reach inland to perhaps Newport to Coos Bay/Gold Beach.
    Impacts: If you’re walking on the beach you may get sand in your eyes, or maybe in your bottom crack. Kamikaze Seagulls in flight, so watch those poopy projectiles. Some wave and surf action too.

    300mb model(NCEP) shows a much weaker and disorganized jet, so you’re not going to get any kind of deep low pressure area tracking up from the south/southwest in that environment.

    Cross section
    *PDX – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xkpdx.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    30kts at surface and 55kts down to 950mb.
    *UAO – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xkuao.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    Aurora’s cross section is more impressive showing 50kts near surface
    *SLE – Rinse/repeat
    *EUG – Similar winds aloft….
    **A 8-10 hour period of breezy-gusty winds 20-30+mph. The gradient doesn’t seem supportive of anything aside from Very breezy to Gusty winds, so unless we see incredible mixing I wouldn’t expect a Wind event. It looks like another potential event of boredom and not meeting a weather geeks expectation. Would you expect anything less though? ….

    12z WRF looks less impressive. Same timing, similar frontal wave, track comparable, winds along Coast somewhat similar. In other words, there’s no point getting into further details… Whatever may happen it will be a Coastal event only, so unless you’re a homeless bum who lives on the beach or amongst Sea Lions I see no reason to post any further analysis unless 00z shows a surprise development, which it won’t we all know that much.

    Onto 12z ECMWF, maybe it will be more interesting to look at.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Protect the bottom crack!
      We must be relentlessly on WATCH! Hahaah!

    • alohabb says:

      If you get sand in your bottom crack while walking on the beach then you really have bigger issues than sand in your bottom crack! Lol

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah!

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Enough with the joking around.

      Let’s see if we can find a seriously healthy low headed our way!
      (or maybe some of that “fricken ice sheet” PeterB spotted)
      Hahaah!

    • lurkyloo says:

      Years ago I was accidentally at that nude beach on Sauvie Island. It was November and a man came walking down the beach fully clothed (jacket, hat, hiking boots), except for his pants and under-drawers! He would probably need to protect his bottom crack area. Rob, did you see him too??

    • LOLs thank god no. Never been to any beach areas on Sauvie Island.

    • Mike in Tigard says:

      looks impressive on sattlelite could it spool up into something big?

  16. For no apparent reason….

    12z MM5-NAM 925mb/SLP model
    *1:00 PM Monday

    A weak 1004mb wave near 36 N, 143.4 W begins developmental stages.
    *4:00 AM Tuesday

    Yet another boring 996-997mb frontal wave approaches the Coast. Peak intensity also occurs here as this moves onshore to the north it weakens and gradient relaxes a bit. Yawn, same old, same old it seems.

    Wind Gust model
    *4:00 AM Tuesday

    Nice swath of 60-70kt gusts along the central-southern Oregon Coastal headlands. These high winds do not spread northward and only reach inland to perhaps Newport to Coos Bay/Gold Beach.
    Impacts: If you’re walking on the beach you may get sand in your eyes, or maybe in your bottom crack. Kamikaze Seagulls in flight, so watch those poopy projectiles. Some wave and surf action too.

    300mb model(NCEP) shows a much weaker and disorganized jet, so you’re not going to get any kind of deep low pressure area tracking up from the south/southwest in that environment.

    Cross section
    *PDX – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xkpdx.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    30kts at surface and 55kts down to 950mb.
    *UAO – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xkuao.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    Aurora’s cross section is more impressive showing 50kts near surface
    *SLE – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xksle.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    Rinse/repeat
    *EUG – http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/xkeug.th.gif.pagespeed.ic.8EnOrOmqcV.png
    Similar winds aloft….
    **A 8-10 hour period of breezy-gusty winds 20-30+mph. The gradient doesn’t seem supportive of anything aside from Very breezy to Gusty winds, so unless we see incredible mixing I wouldn’t expect a Wind event. It looks like another potential event of boredom and not meeting a weather geeks expectation. Would you expect anything less though? ….

    12z WRF looks less impressive. Same timing, similar frontal wave, track comparable, winds along Coast somewhat similar. In other words, there’s no point getting into further details… Whatever may happen it will be a Coastal event only, so unless you’re a homeless bum who lives on the beach or amongst Sea Lions I see no reason to post any further analysis unless 00z shows a surprise development, which it won’t we all know that much.

    Onto 12z ECMWF, maybe it will be more interesting to look at.

  17. Do you know what I enjoy doing? Typing thousands of words, posting detailed analysis complete with zoomed images I create for absolutely nothing. LOLs One day it’ll actually be truly worth it during an actual event that happens(December 2006 Windstorm, December 2008 Snowmageddon to name a few) I knew nothing was going to happen, I guess it was interesting to track it regardless. You can’t have a windstorm no matter how strong a low is when you have such a large, expansive area similar pressure readings from PDX-MFR you simply cannot generate any kind of gradient.

    Onto the next potential windy day Tuesday. I guess I’ll post 12z MM5/WRF analysis shortly as I do see some stuff to discuss, but why bother it’ll just fall apart right.

    • DCZ (Hillsboro) says:

      No need to caveat that it will just fall apart. Everyone who follows the weather in Oregon knows that will never change.

      Just the same, I was reading all your posts overnight. It’s all good.

    • Thanks, and yeah lol seems everything has to line up perfectly here if we’re to see a wind storm, snow, arctic blast, thunderstorms(severe specially)…

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Wasn’t for nothing.
      We’re weather geeks.
      It’s fun.
      We also know…one of em won’t fall apart.
      Hahaah!

    • ‘Poose, you always make it fun lol You are the Blog comedian.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      It’s easy to take it all too seriously.
      And there is LOTSA humor in it all.

      I can’t help myself, Mark knows it’s the youngster in me!

  18. AdamInAumsville says:

    00Z ECMWF still looking good. Some really cold air to the north at hour 240.

  19. Marc (Orchards, WA) says:

    Just received the heaviest rainfall and hailstorm in recent memory. Woke up a few of the neighbors

  20. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Wind just swung around here from S to N and it’s pouring (1.67″/hour)

    I haven’t had the rain wake me up in a long time…until today.

  21. Due west of Tillamook now moving northeast. Good night

  22. bgb41 says:

    12/1/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:61 at DW0069 Ferndale( 840 ft)
    Low: 51 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:28 at Timberline Lodge(7001 ft) & Mount Hood Meado(6601 ft)
    Low: 23 at Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft ) & Mount Hood Meado (6601 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 19 degrees
    FISH FIN RIM (56/37 ) (4907 ft )
    Chinook (55/36) (399 ft)
    HERMISTON (55/36) (550 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.75″ at QUAIL PRAIRIE LO(3183ft)
    2.51″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)
    2.33″ at EW0059 Myrtle Po(174ft)

  23. WV Loop shows the northern low estimated 986-988mb is west of Lincoln City(roughly) moving northeast.. this is going to be interesting…
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    • Awaiting 12:50 AM buoy data before I go to sleep… Still not expecting anything, but I like to track these things…

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I might be tremendously off, but it looks like it may track JUST to the NW of Portland… Like, a couple miles NW.

    • W7ENK says:

      The Northern low and the Southern low are virtually (I said virtually, not exactly) the same in pressure. There is no tight pressure gradient between the two, so there’s nothing to cause strong winds in the area between them. This is why we’re seeing strong winds down to the South through Reno, Alturas and up into Klamath Falls, but not to the North of the Southern low. With the main area of low pressure tracking inland just North of Brookings, passing South of Roseburg, and crossing the Cascades just to the North of Crater Lake, this would all make sense. Looks to me like that’s about how this thing is shaping up.

    • As of 12:50 AM
      Pressure rising along southern Oregon and northern California Coast. Southern low has just moved onshore. However, pressure is still falling off Newport, Astoria 29.17 988mb(-0.11), and the central Washington Coast 29.19 (-0.11) Sounds like the northern low may indeed pass north of PDX, so we’ll have to see what kind of pressure rises to the south we see, and how much(if any) the PDX-EUG gradient tighten this early morning. Good night. I’ll be back should any sudden developments unfold.

    • runrain says:

      Except the winds over by Reno, which were expected to be roaring right now, have died way off, which seems to indicate something is going on much differently than expected.

  24. Just went from 29.29 to 29.23(990mb)

  25. runrain says:

    Winds everywhere, even Reno, are going way down while the pressures are dropping as well. And the low on the water vapor loop is showing some distinct changes too. Something sure feels ominous out there. A surprise after all?

  26. As of 11:50 PM buoys off the central and northern Oregon Coast show pressure falls with the greatest Newport to Astoria of -0.12(Rapid) and -0.11(Rapid). No longer do buoys off the southern Oregon or northern California indicate strong pressure falls just -0.09 to -0.02.
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46029 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46050 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46015 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46027

  27. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12 Click ‘ FAST ‘ speed… strong rotation noted. West of Newport roughly

  28. karlbonner1982 says:

    The new 00z Euro on Mark’s page looks extremely promising at 240 hours: a nice upper-level low core is dive-bombing the BC coast, and generating lots of over-water subarctic flow with the -8C isotherm about 300 miles off the northern Oregon coast! And TONS of arctic air across Alaska and Yukon.

    Now I’m just praying that we get a heavy dump of wet onshore snow, rather than plunge to 0F in the eastern Gorge!

  29. 00z euro sure looks promising @240. Major digging trough descending from the great white north with lots o’ cold air behind it. This just may the first glimpse of the mid month arctic outbreak. Or maybe not!

    • Holy cow! That is the coldest and most expansive arctic air mass I think I’ve ever seen.
      http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
      This is so close to being epic if not historic cold.

    • Seriously you ever seen the EC that cold in northern BC/AB, NW Territories, Alaska, and Yukon? I have looked at hundreds of these maps and never seen it like this.

    • Damn right! Holy fricken ice sheet! Snomaicemaggedon! Good thing Ive got new crampons and new mountaineering boots. Will need them just to get the morning paper if that euro pans out.

    • Benjamin (West Salem) says:

      This does look very good!!!

    • SnowedIn - North Plains says:

      Here’s hoping it happens! Unfortunately we all know how this NORMALLY pans out…. Not saying it couldn’t happen 😀

    • W7ENK says:

      YAY for hour 240!!! \^_^/

      What would we all do were it not for hour 240?!? I want to live in hour 240.

      All.
      Winter.
      LONG!

      😀

      Don’t you???

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Don’t hold your breath. Honestly, I don’t trust anything, even trends, unless they’re within 7 days. That’s a personal thing, though.

      How I see it is that it seems to always say cold/arctic air is going to move in 10 days out… Then the next day, it says the same thing, 10 days out. As we progress through days, the models do the same thing with the arctic cold. It’s like we never get any closer to it.

      It’s also done the same in Spring but just the opposite effect: We’ll be cold and the models will predict Spring-like weather 10 days out, etc. It’s ALWAYS 10 days out.

      Drives me insane.

    • It’s the 3rd or 4th “good” EC run and showing comparable 500mb progression beginning day 7 into day 8. It’s better than not seeing this with a ridge planted over us. You have to start somewhere.

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      I want it to happen too…

      But I’m not going to hold my breath over it.

    • Neither am I…. Simply stating what the model shows… Be nice to see ensembles gather support and 12z tomorrow build on this, move timing up 12 hours or so…. Like I said, you have to start somewhere just like we did back in December 2008.

  30. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    Pressure 29.52″ in Klamath Falls. Wind S 22 G 36.

    Pressure has been falling quite steadily all evening. Perhaps we could get some good winds out of it soon… We will see.

    Also under a high wind warning, possibly up to 60mph in the area.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ORZ029&warncounty=ORC035&firewxzone=ORZ624&local_place1=&product1=High+Wind+Warning

  31. I swear the northern low is not being handled by models… It’s OBVIOUSLY there…. and based on buoy 46002 when it passed there it was 993mb. Looking at pressure falls off Oregon Coast in relation to where the low is at I would place the low at 989-990mb now..

    Now I’m 29.38 in falling

  32. Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

    I’m getting some fairly aggressive winds. But as of yet, nothing to be impressed about. Sounds like 30-40mph.

  33. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Wow…I haven’t seen my pressure drop this fast in a long time.

    29.45″, down a mb in the last 15 minutes…

  34. Just looked at WV Loop 9 PM image… That low at 43.7 N, 129 W, is clearly moving E-NE or NE now.. checking buoy info..
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    • Rapid pressure falls all along the Coast with the greatest occurring off the southern Oregon and northern California Coast upwards of -0.22 in. There is a secondary southern wave/surface low developing, but as of yet hasn’t revealed itself on IR/WV Loop.

  35. PDX Weather Nut says:

    Take a look at those rainfall amounts for northern California! Up to 9″

  36. So, then what’s the obvious wave/low that has just passed Buoy 46002 west of Coos Bay at 993-994mb? Models are wrong in not even initializing it, but yeah as myself and others have suggested strongest winds remain south.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Looks like it was the cold front, if the WRF-GFS is correct. It shows about 995 mb in that spot with a wind switch; only a millibar or two off.

    • So a frontal wave then…. Still moving south of us regardless… We just can’t score a good surface low anymore it seems. They either curl away to the north, head south, split, double barreled, stall/weaken inside 128 W… We’re destined for boring weather sometimes. lol

    • EY (Oak Grove) says:

      Seems to me that it’s just how it is and always been. Every year we expect to get an epic storm, but there’s a reason storms like 2007, 2006, 2000, 1999, 1995, etc. are all as impressive as they are: We DON’T get them often.

      The odds are definitely against us when it comes to south winds in general because, while there are a number situations that can give us good winds, they all require storms to move in ways they just normally don’t.

      In other words: We’re in a sweet spot to avoid storms.

  37. runrain says:

    Same old same old. My forecast for Winter ’12-’13: Hi 50 Low 40, steady light drizzle!

    • PDX Weather Nut says:

      I am hoping for at least one decent snowfall in town. We haven’t had one in like four or five years it seems.

  38. paulbeugene says:

    yep…probably will miss out on the wind action down here in Eugene as well. Looks wet tonight.

  39. alohabb says:

    Okie dokie then

  40. W7ENK says:

    Yup, pretty much. :mrgreen:

    • Why would you be grinning if it means no weather action when you are always dying for it? Because you’re doing the “I told you so thing again” when there’s no one you need to tell. No one to my knowledge suggested a wind storm for PDX. *Looks around* Nope.

    • No offense, but you do that fairly often. We all want some fun active weather trust me!

    • runtmc says:

      Helpful hint for this winter, W7. Use the following numerical codes for all of your posts. This will save you a lot of time and save us all from the misery. Much like ordering at McDonald’s, you simply post by number. Here is the key to all your posts, in order of their frequency:

      #1: “I told you so. I never bought into it all. You all were stupid to think otherwise.”

      #2: “I’ll believe it when I see it. This will bust.”

      #3: Semi-witty, semi-pithy, weather-related rumination.

      #4. Condescending, mocking, Orwellian grammar police post.

      #5. Cry to daddy (Mark) post–“Block this troll, Mark!”

      So, in this case, you can simply reply to this post with “5.” Easy, eh?

    • Don’t get upset at Erik because the fact is the NWS was right not to issue any wind advisories for the valley.

    • bgb41 says:

      W7ENK is very smart and funny. I miss his humor in my group.

    • Timmy_Supercell (Klamath Falls @ 4200') says:

      Its probably his desperate grin, Rob. The type of grin right before hes about to jump off the bridge, but he doesn’t want anyone to know. :lol

    • Sifton says:

      (timpani drum roll)……………

    • W7ENK says:

      Hahaha! 😆

      All y’all amuse me…

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