Peak gust of 61 mph out in Corbett within the last couple hours as the wind starts to really ramp up this evening. Gusts to 70 mph are possible through tomorrow morning out there as the air is squeezed down by the warming atmosphere overhead tonight; an inversion. Then it’ll gradually back off, but still remain very windy, through Wednesday. Adding to the wintry feel, this is the coldest airmass of the season coming through the Gorge so far with temps in the 30s along with the wind right now.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen
Excerpt I grabbed from PDX NWS AFD
IN ADDITION…LOOK FOR INCREASING EAST WINDS IN THE NORTH INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURES LOWER OFF THE COAST.
North Interior? Well if the offshore gradients increase that implies the Gorge too. But when I hear North Interior I’m thinking Washington up near Bellingham, but PDX NWS wouldn’t mention them as it doesn’t pertain to our area …. Well it is already gusting 35-40mph out here into Gresham/Troutdale, and 55-65+ in western Gorge. Exactly how much of an increase are we talking. A bit too vague with their AFD in my opinion in covering this.
Hmmm, Matt Z. just said gusts to 55mph into Troutdale? really. Interesting…..
So really, what your saying is that we need to be start building a noah’s ark.
No worries, someone already has…
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/30/world/europe/johans-ark-noah-dutch/index.html
As have the Chinese, apparently.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123966767906515339-search.html
Guezz W7ENK, how did you find that link thats a huge ship!
Can anyone tell me what city I should look at for getting a some what close or accurate temp and wind for Ridgefield Wa.?
Thanks in advance!
I would say Scappoose, St. Helens, Woodland, Longview, Vancouver; — in that order.
This may help: http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/WA/Ridgefield.html
Sure is chilly out there
Temp: 41.8
Dewpoint: 27
Wind: E 20-35
Peak gust: 43.7mph @8:15 AM
East wind rages on….
As of 2 PM
PDX-DLS: -7.2mb | 1 PM: -7.0mb | Hourly Change: +0.2mb
TTD-DLS: -7.7mb | 1 PM: -7.1mb | Hourly Change: +0.6mb
As of 4 PM
PDX-DLS: -7.6mb | 3 PM: -7.5mb | Hourly Change: +0.1mb
TTD-DLS: -7.9mb | 3 PM: -7.8mb | Hourly Change: +0.1mb
New peak TTD-DLS gradient. Heading for -8mb+ it looks like. As I thought models are breaking down the ridge and cold pool too soon thus wanting to weaken offshore gradients too quickly. This has happened numerous times before. Tonight could be an East wind event(Gust 40-45mph+) east of I-205 into Gresham/Troudale/Fairview/Wood Village….
I don’t think an east wind storm(gusts 50mph+) but with 925/850mb temps warming aloft and pressure falls to the southwest, it seems possible.
Hmmmm, 30-40mph gusts in PDX tomorrow?
Likely not, I don’t see it coming together. And that’s not pessimism, that’s based off current Sat obs. Storm track looks to be WAY too far out to sea to bring us anything exciting, unless you like rain. Lots and lots more rain! :yawn:
Another reason why I think PDX may be spared the Southerly Wind Monster (if gradients in the Valley do tighten up) is this cold pool in the Columbia Basin being drawn out through the Gorge. As the low approaches, that cold dense air will act like a dome (literally, no joking this time!), deflecting any Southerlies up off the surface. If only this were a month later, though it would probably turn into an icy mess! Which lends more credence to my thoughts that ice is going to be the biggest story this winter.
We’ll see…
We need to beat down the ridge over us. The first system isn’t going to be the one to keep an eye on. It will be energy rounding the trough probably Saturday…. I’m not forecasting or saying we will see a windstorm, only saying this pattern is conducive for them to develop.
We aren’t getting much east wind at all in Happy Valley and we usually do.
I think this is really a true “gap” wind tonight because it is raging here for sure.
Yes, a gap event. I’m holding out for the Old Navy event…
Actually, I’ve noticed the winds have been creeping up a bit over the past half hour or so here in Happy Valley so maybe the gap is widening!
Weird, cause here on the Wetside it is absolutely dead calm
Hey Mark why don’t you have them plant some in Corbett too.
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/11/clones_of_ancient_redwoods_gia.html#incart_river
Haha! Interesting… You can’t even put up a mailbox without permits and approval from the Columbia Gorge Preservation Committee, let alone 400 foot tall Sequoias, lest they block someone’s view or stand out as an eyesore to people looking across from the Washington side…
my point is that there is a reason these trees are not native to most of the Oregon coast (and Washington, BC coast)…it has nothing to do with mist…we have that here too…
True, however Port Orford may have been home to Sequoias in the past? I have no idea.
12:38 PM Update
Water Vapor imagery
When was the last time you saw the Pacific looking like this? I count 5 separate waves or areas of low pressure all sandwiched between 160-130 W. A real log jam of energy and front systems out there….
Next view the following Water Vapor and Infrared Loops
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12
Craziness ensues. I can’t remember the last time I saw the trough axis dip down to 28 N either. The upper level support looks excellent. Jet looks powerful and lots of cold air to feed into developing low pressure areas and as they undergo Cyclogenesis too. The system moving southward down 160 W looks impressive already. Based on all of this I am definitely not ruling out a possible windstorm before this pattern changes next weekend or so.
Errrr, frontal* systems… you knew that though….
I don’t remember the Pacific looking like that. Crazy.
Will be fun to watch…breezy to gusty, gusty to windy?
Hahaah!
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+12
I like that one down around 37N 128W, nice comma shape, nice dry slot… Bring that thing in 500 miles closer to the coastline and we could have a real doozie on our hands!!! It’s just too bad it looks like it’s already making it’s northward turn. No dice.😦
*37N 138W
Isn’t the one at 138w supposed to be going into Northern California? They’re expecting some monumental rains down there from Thur onwards and it would seem this one fits that time frame.
Hmm, mayhaps? But, it’s also in the right spot for the magical wishcast-o-windstorm we’re supposed to be getting tomorrow, which would still bring driving rains to California. And to me, it does appear that it ticks Northward in the last couple of frames, well ahead of the “danger” zone. I guess we’ll have to wait and see…
==== ALERT! ====
12z ECMWF
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
After we get past the upcoming windstorm pattern look how the 500mb pattern progresses. Note the ridge at 145 W. However, I hate to fart on your parade, but the strong system moving into the Aleutians seems to want to push things along quickly implying a transitory longwave pattern. Baby steps, BUT this is still a lot better than the GFS. IF that system were weaker, that ridge might turn into a block and hang out around 145-150 W. I know it is an IF, but there are always a lot of IF’s, When’s, Could be’s, Maybe’s, when it comes to potential exciting weather in the Pacific Northwest.
Think of it this way. The next 3-4 days is a virtual lock in terms of 500mb pattern, the finer details of course aren’t resolved. Let’s see what things look like as we move into Thursday-Friday12z on the models, especially ECMWF.
Does that mean lots of breezy to windy or wind to breezy days
Wait, you’re farting on parades? That’s just wrong, Rob. =)
I know, right….😆
12z GEM(Canadian)
Saturday, December 1st(FCST HR 96)
975mb low just off the Washington Coast.
Awaiting 12z ECMWF to see if it suggests anything similar, or shows the wind storm 00z did last night.
It’s the best we can do in terms of possible exciting weather….
Hit a bone-chilling 27F out there this morning… Tons of frost too. Lowest temp of the season so far!
Cold and windy November mornings make for great sunrises!
Wow – very nice!
But if you happen to live down here….
http://www.tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/NorthAlbany_pid1489.jpg?1354004428
11/26/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary
Warmest:
High:61 at AGNESS2( 247 ft) & Tillamook(63 ft)
Low: 45 at BROOKINGS(79 ft)
Coldest:
High:27 at HARL BUTTE(6071 ft)
Low: 10 at ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )
Largest Diurnal Change: 33 degrees
LYNHART RANCH (54/21 ) (4092 ft )
Lakeview, Lake C (52/19) (4734 ft)
Ukmet, GFS, nogaps, Canadian say 10-20 gusts to 30mph this weekend for willamette valley. Euro sez maybe more than that. Looks wet in California.
The GFS ops run is outlier…mild west on ensembles.
Down to 30.6, last night hit 28.9. I wonder If we break into the 27’s tonight!
Two model runs in a row show bitter cold in washington in hrs 192hrs with a inch or so of snow off. On the flip side shows portland area a good 20 deagrees warmer then seattle.
What are you looking at? Bitter cold, 20 degrees colder than Portland? 😕Do you know what your looking at or just confused, or other?
@ the 00 G.F.S between 192 hrs and 384 hrs has bellingham in the mid 20. Seattle in low 30 Portland Mid 40 the 18 G.FS had seattle north colder Bellingham in the low teens etc.
…it’s called lala land for a reason….
Haha!😆
Indeed, it is.
Oregon City, top of the hill (Clackamas Community College), absolutely dead calm and I just spent the last few minutes scraping frost off my windshield while warming the engine.
00z GFS through FCST HR 180 is barely worth a look…. Yeah, it is that bad.
Just ugly. Like turds in a Waffle maker….
Oh, of course La-La Land will look much better, only to pour salt in our wounds… Evil models….
Based on consistency in the ensembles I don’t anticipate any major surprises in 180 hr time frame. But 180-240 some changes are in store, hopefully for the better, maybe the 00z euro sheds some light on how the Haida gwaii permatrough evolves, as it’s final chapter remains unwritten
At least we’re seeing consistency FCST HR 266 – 384. I mean you have to start somewhere, right? ….
Well…., let’s say that I had a dream that the Beavers beat the Ducks……lala land…😉
Wind gust to 69 mph at Corbett in the past hour…it must be screaming out there. Also means it’s likely gusting around 100mph on the steps at Vista House. I don’t think the Corbett location got above 72 mph last year.
Link is here: http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/screenID005.gif
Not too shabby!
I hope the “fake cold” pool over the Columbia Basin 1) builds up to a depth of at least 4,000 feet; 2) temps near river level stabilize in the low to mid 30s as opposed to upper 30s/low 40s; and 3) the moisture coming in Wed/Thu has a freezing level not much above the Columbia Basin inversion top so that snowflakes don’t melt in the middle atmosphere.
I confess that this is an act of wishcasting, but we’re all guilty of it now and then. This is one manifestation of my particular brand.
Ok, I’m curious now. Where would I go to buy a wind gauge? Anything else I might need for this new hobbie of mine:)
Hey Mark,
I want you to give us your own personalized forecast for this upcoming winter. Tailored to what you know we all want to hear. That being said it doesn’t have to be true or based of anything or not. Give us something that will have us saying “boy if that happened….”. 🙂 You know what I mean.
You may or may not be scored on various unstated criteria by the bloggers on a scale of 1-10. 10 being the best. example-creativity.
Heck you would make my day if you found the time to make another post on this🙂
I’ve created a gallery on my website of all of the images that were collected from that snowy/icy episode in 2008. They are generally in order of the event when possible, however, there aren’t a lot of labels etc as I was busy just saving the images. Photos included from areas up near Seattle as well.
If I had no life I would go through and organize these haha
NOTE: Most of these photos are NOT mine!
Thanks for the pics they were awesome, sure hope to see another winter storm like that! if im reading the GFS correctly looks like we may get colder around mid December i hope so!
FWIW, 00z MM5-NAM cross section are the strongest yet for Wednesday.
PDX http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/kpdx.th.gif
SLE http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/ksle.th.gif
EUG http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/keug.th.gif
40kts near the surface and 50kts down to 950mb. Wind Advisory? Suppose it is possible.
great. were working down in portland off 205 to repair a roof tomorrow. should be fun if the winds whipping….
Should be good balance training for when we can get back up to Vista House! Hahaah!
Looks as if the Westside will avoid this wind…but dang its cold out there!!!!
The wind is less right now than it was this morning here in Milwaukie. If it doesn’t come back, it’ll get COLD tonight!
Yeah, you just might see a frost like I did. First one of the season for me. Woohoo!
Hey Mark, do you have any old forecast video archives of the 2008 winter storm/arctic blast, just wondering kind of random i know.
No, the only thing I keep are the paper forecasts from each day.
Ok thanks anyway!
Huh..a weatherman with a sense of humor..who’d a thunk’ ?
So the forecast given each night is for real and not a joke???
lol..just playin’
I’ve created a gallery on my website of all of the images that were collected from that episode. They are generally in order of the event when possible, however, there aren’t a lot of labels etc as I was busy just saving the images. Photos included from areas up near Seattle as well.
If I had no life I would go through and organize these haha
NOTE: Most of these photos are NOT mine!
As of 5 PM
PDX-DLS: -7.7mb | 4 PM: -7.2mb | Hourly Change: +0.5mb
TTD-DLS: -7.7mb | 4 PM: -7.2mb | Hourly Change: +0.5mb
OTH-GEG: -7.0mb | 4 PM: -7.4mb | Hourly Change: -0.4mb
Thank you Rob!
You’re welcome anytime and welcome to the Blog.
Hope to get at least one decent snow in town this winter. It’s been four years or so since we’ve had one. I don’t count 1/4″ or 1/2″ as being decent snows … haha
Ah, you read my mind, Mark from what I posted a bit ago(or maybe I read yours?) …. Looking forward to raging winds tonight and tomorrow!
You called it!
You called it!
I just moved to Cascade locks and I have no idea what the wind speed was last night but it sounded very strong all night. Does anyone know where to find out in my area?
Try these links
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=colriver
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KCZK&table=1&banner=off
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=LKSO3&table=1&banner=off
Cascade Locks doesn’t have very good wind info. The KCZK observation comes and goes, and only in the daytime. On the Washington side of the river, there are really no decent observations from Skamania all the way to White Salmon? Jesse, get a wind gauge up and working!
First!
Not!😆
LAME😆
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