Peak of Storm Hitting Now at Coast; Heading Inland Next 6 Hours


The height of the storm appears to be hitting in the 9am hour on the North Oregon Coast as the expected 2nd wave of wind is here.  

Peak gusts in the past hour, all the strongest so far:

Astoria Airport:  67
Rockaway: 70
Lincoln City: 85
Megler Hill (1,000′):  100
Naselle Ridge (2,000′): 106

The next 2 hours will be the height of the storm on the coast, then it’ll die down dramatically after 11am as the cold front sags south.  It’ll be totally over (windwise) by 4pm everywhere north of Florence.

Here are the other storm highlights so far:

  • Strong wind in the valleys has been almost totally confined to only the west of I-5 in the Woodburn-Clark County section.  Peak gusts 40-50 mph at McMinnville, Forest Grove, and other areas westside.  It’s a no-show (so far) westside, just 20-30 mph.
  • As the front approaches even those areas should see increasingly strong wind through late afternoon, then it’ll back off dramatically during the evening rush hour.  Gusts 35-50mph are possible anywhere until that time.
  • Rainfall has been concentrated mostly west of I-5 from Portland south too.  But as the front sags south the next 8 hours, so will the heavy rain
  • Heaviest rain in the metro area and Salem will be midday through afternoon, then back off quickly after the evening commute.
  • Ski areas have been saved by the slow movement of the front, hardly ANYTHING has fallen up there so far.  Rain will arrive in the afternoon, but then change to snow after 7pm.  Just 6 hours of heavy rain won’t ruin the snowpack too badly.  The snowpack won’t wash away!
  • The storm will be over this evening for most of us as the heavy rain shifts south and the wind calms down
  • More rain/wind Tuesday and Wednesday, but just the usual gusty wind and less than 1″ more rain.
  • Thanksgiving looks pretty decent, partly cloudy and probably dry

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

85 Responses to Peak of Storm Hitting Now at Coast; Heading Inland Next 6 Hours

  1. WhiteEagle - Garden Home / SW Portland says:

    Rain is just coming down in sheets now. And wind…not too much, but decent gusts 25-30mph!

  2. Gabriel says:

    Just had a bump here in salem like 20 mins ago

  3. David B. says:

    Windstorm is underway in Seattle right now. Looks much like hurricane footage outside with people struggling to walk in the wind-whipped rain. Lots of trash and debris blowing down the streets, too.

  4. Danny in Troutdale says:

    My cable is out. Anyone else having problems in my area?

  5. Lights are flickering here (near Westview HS)

  6. W7ENK says:

    Just had a minor power bump in “The Core” of Downtown Portland. Just enough to barely blink the lights, but computers and mechanical equipment rode through. Would’a missed it had I blinked my eyes.

  7. Here’s the Winter 2012-2013 weather contest that Brian put together recently.

    • W7ENK says:

      My entry didn’t log correctly. Brian didn’t include a category for ice accumulation, only snowfall. I tried to specify 1.5″ ice + 3.0″ snow, but it only took the 1.5″.

      Perhaps an Ice category should be added; I believe that’s going to be the real story of this winter.

      I’ll message him on FB directly.

  8. Strongest winds likely occurring now until 3 PM

    Hillsboro G 48mph
    McMinnville G 47

    If PDX metro is to see gusts 40-50mph it’s now or never….

    • Brad says:

      So is it just my imagination or is today’s strom stronger than predicted and last night’s is a relative bust (wind wise)?

    • Yeah, around 988mb now, much stronger than last night’s 00z.. Things changed quickly overnight to my surprise. I typed out an entire novel of analysis from 2 AM – now essentially covering it. Winds could be stronger for sure…..

  9. Hal in Aims says:

    power has been out since 9:45….just fired up the generator to keep the freezer , etc. ok. Have not had much wind………a few stronger gusts in between long spells of almost calm. Very erratic, however. Seems to come from every direction at once. No rain, yet, but it looks like that is about to change.

  10. SnowedIn - North Plains says:

    Winds have just really strengthened out here. Wish I had an anemometer right about now… If I had to guess I’d say probably 35-40 mph gusts here.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      Gust to 40 at KHIO at 12:17PM,

      My station 43 in the last hour. My wife reports a number of gusts in the low-mid 30’s in the last hour. Also it is pouring on the west side of town.

  11. paulbeugene says:

    Looks to me winds have been as strong as forecast on the coast, where we expected the strong winds to be. Inland, not so sure at this point that we will be seeing 45mph+ here in south valley.

    Rainfall totals will probably be much less than previously forecast…would be surprised to see more than 1-2 inches in lowland locations in next 24 hours…looks as if front will slide through our region quicker than previously thought but it could hang up a bit farther S over SW OR.

    All in all…a seasonably strong Pacific front in mid November.

    Looks like some snow will fall on passes to start the Thanksgiving holiday but then mild air returns until the end of the weekend. Looks like could see a cool period first half of next week….perhaps to give a frost or freeze to places that have not done so yet.

    6Z GFS and 12Z GFS operational runs both show trend toward colder weather later next week, with a bit of support from GFS ensembles but not the Canadian. ……would like to see more ridging in the SE USA. The ESRL reforecast model has been insistent for several runs on keeping the heights lower off the PacNW coast rather than over our heads. That in combination with lack of high 500mb heights over SE USA suggests that cold air over NW Canada more likely will drain E of Rockies toward Great Lakes, etc. Would not be surprised if models trend colder for next week.

    Windstorm chances in week two less than what I was previously thinking as there is not as much energy crossing the Pacific to phase with energy diving S from AK.

    • Good analysis. The past few operationals have been real close to a full on arctic blast. It’s good to see a block near Alaska at the least. Just need the westerlies to shut off… 12z ECMWF wasn’t of much help though…

    • Also I have seen remarkable consistency with the GFS/ECMWF/GEM ensembles 6-10/11-15day 500mb height anomalies showing the greatest positive anomaly over Western Alaska/Bering Sea. Just a bit too far west unfortunately.

  12. momof2kiddos says:

    Out my back window. I’ve never ever seen deer out here before but it’s probably not very nice in the tall trees right now.

  13. My barometer is now the lowest it has been yet at 29.47 in (falling)
    However, if the wind doesn’t pick up soon I’ll consider this a bust. I know, I know there have already been gusts in the 35-40mph range in the area and that myself, Mark, and the NWS were all forecasting the same 35-45+mph, but as of yet this is a let down. Maybe it’ll pick up…

  14. Gust to 40 on my station in the past few minutes

    • Im pretty sure i felt that this morning. I was trying to go back to sleep after going to the bathroom, and my dresser shoot and rattled randomly, I thought it may have been the wind, but I thought earthquake when I felt it. That would be the first earthquake I ever remember feeling/noticing.

  15. W7ENK says:

    Peak wind gust overnight at my location SSW 10.1 mph.

    Only about 0.20″ of rain by the time I left the house.

    I did, however, hear (not feel) the earthquake this morning. I was standing at my bus stop, had been there only about a minute or so when I heard a faint deep boom come from under the street, and the fir tree above me shuttered, knocking a bunch of needles loose that all fell to the ground at once. Not a breath of wind anywhere in the neighborhood at the time. Reminiscent of a scene from Jurassic Park. Took me a few minutes to put it together and realize it was probably an earthquake. It was really weird!

    USGS has changed their site and it now no longer works on my phone. 😦

    Winds downtown were picking up earlier, but nothing over 30 mph.
    It’s calm right now.

    • Poolsidemike says:

      Geez, you must have a protective halo around you or something! No wonder everything is always a “bust” for you!!!! LOL. Only 10mph wind and only 0.20″ of rain? Just about 1″ of rain and highest gust earlier this morning around 33mph on the hill in Tigard.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Even PDX briefly was up around 40 mph.

    • here is a different link….was 10 miles from Portland & a 3.2

    • W7ENK says:

      Don’t know what to tell you, I don’t make this stuff up. I even slept with my window open last night so I could listen to the rain and the wind. As a light sleeper, I didn’t wake up once.

      ‘Tis life under the Milwaukie dome, I guess it’s still there.

    • Kyle says:

      Now you know how I feel when things are a bust and everyone else gets in on the action.

      Gusty winds here but so far nothing that bad.

    • W7ENK says:

      It’s the same thing with snow, Kyle.

      I don’t know what it is, but unless we get a perfectly aligned S-N gradient coming straight up the valley, my little area just seems to miss out on the wind. I’ve mentioned this before, but there’s a ridge line that runs NW to SE between Milwaukie and Oak Grove (Kellogg Creek), and the area of Milwaukie to the North of that ridge, up to the ridge that runs the W-E on the North side of Johnson Creek Blvd, between the river and I-205, that whole area seems to miss out on the good stuff. It’s just a funny little microclimate.

      About like this, actually:

  16. umpire says:

    Here are links to the ODOT cams – one for the tipped semi on the bridge, and the second for the flooding on 101 near Seaside.

  17. David B. says:

    Rained all night in Seattle and really started pouring sometime in the early morning hours. Multiple leaks in my building’s basement were sending a steady trickle out and under the door onto the sidewalk outside when I left this morning (it’s a hillside building, and deliberately built to drain that way). Many storm drains were plugged with leaves flooding intersections on the ride into work.

  18. Umm, has anyone looked at the 12Z GFS for mid-late next week? It’s definately trending in the right direction. Snow to end the month? I’d be interested to hear Paul and Rob’s thoughts once this current storm winds down of course.

  19. ODOT officials in Clatsop County are asking motorists to
    postpone or delay trips from Portland and the Willamette Valley to the coast because
    of falling trees and other hazardous conditions on U.S. 26 and U.S. 30. U.S. 26 is
    currently closed at the junction of U.S. 101 following a crash that involved a
    downed tree and powerlines. The section of U.S. 26 between U.S. 101 and milepost 10
    has reported a number of downed trees and powerlines. Also, U.S. 101 is restricted
    to only high profile vehicles south of Seaside because of high water. The Astoria
    Megler Bridge is closed following a semi rollover crash.





  21. The Astoria-Megler Bridge is closed following a semi
    rollover crash. Law enforcement has closed the bridge at each end to allow for
    recovery of the semi. This could be a lengthy closure. Motorists should avoid the
    area, use an alternative route or expect long delays.

  22. 10:32 am Nehalem river near Vernonia @ 10.65 predicted to crest middle if the night tonite @ 12.3′ Sure am hoping that they are right!

  23. runrain says:

    Signals out, corner of 110th and SE Foster.

  24. HOLY CRAP!
    Live streaming cam
    Just WOW….. Look at the intensity and the trees are just being thrashed like crazy!

  25. The mouth of the Columbia is taking a real beating from this latest storm……Not a good time to be on the Bar……

    Too bad it is only ~990mb….30-40mb less and it might be a real blow to all of us in Western OR….

  26. Reblogged this on thesurvivalplaceblog and commented:
    Add your thoughts here… (optional)

  27. cgavic says:

    Strong winds!! Sandy

  28. alohabb says:

    Ideas on timeframe for strongest winds to hit here?

  29. We have been in the bullseye of the rain here since 10pm yesterday, averaging about 1” per 4 hours since then. The wind just started to really pick up, with 30mph+ gusts. Neighbors lawn and my chicken coup have substantial standing water already.

  30. The winds have just started in Gresham near the high school, only 10-15MPH so far.

  31. New power outages…
    Roughly 6,000 people without power now… and my lights flickered as I typed this.

  32. Thomyee says:

    The GAS model continues with the Newfoundland high centered 30 isobars west of 45 degrees. This should create a downslope across the west side of the center, with vorticity max creating higher high pressures in north canadia localalizations which should help force the arctic front more south towards end of November. Watch out for serious high level cold outbreak and some snow, cold and ice. The chain whip effect creates opposite weather 56 percent of the time, so we should go from warm rain to cold snow.

  33. Impressive. All action appears south of here by a long margin. Just plain rain here. Oh well. Looks like Hurricane Nelsen made landfall well to my south

  34. South winds now increasing east of I-205 for the first time during this “event” I just had a gust of 36.8mph…

    With a 989mb low west of Tillamook moving towards Long Beach, WA, very strong wind aloft at 950-900mb coupled with warm temps in the upper 50’s to low 60’s now watch out for mixing and don’t rule out gusts over 50mph now.

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