The 12z ECMWF and now the 00z GFS are hinting that most of this weekends rain may stay farther north. They are developing a stronger upper-level ridge over the West Coast. Beyond that, good agreement on a colder trough next week. Not sure if it’s just a transitory feature, but we’ll definitely make a swing from warm to cold in the 5-10 day period.
Here’s the 00z GFS ensemble plot of 850mb temps. The operational is on the warm side, but only by a degree or two:
The 00z ECMWF is only partially out, but it shows 500mb heights up around 584dm on Sunday! Very mild, but the rain would be quite close.
Luckily Daylight Time ends this Saturday night and all weather models/maps will come out an hour earlier through early March. Ahh, the 00z ECMWF mostly out before my 10pm broadcast; that proves quite useful at times in the winter.
Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen