Tsunami “Wave” Passes Down Oregon Coast

The only part of the Pacific under a Tsunami warning at 11:45pm is Hawaii.  It’s only an advisory everywhere else from Alaska to California.

The small wave from the earthquake off the BC Coast moved down the Oregon Coast between 10-11pm.  Here are the  heights reported by NOAA:

Looks like the tsunami passed down the Oregon Coast between 10-11pm (0500-0600z).  Peak wave heights, with the initial wave at least, were below 1 foot:

 CHARLESTON  OR       0524UTC   00.3FT
 GARIBALDI  OR           0515UTC 00.2FT
 LA PUSH  WA              0448UTC   00.4FT
 NEAH BAY  WA            0530UTC   00.3FT
 PORT ORFORD  OR      0519UTC   00.5FT
 SOUTH BEACH  OR       0524UTC   00.3FT
 CRESCENT CITY  CA     0555UTC   00.6FT

You can see a model forecast of the wave energy; most of it heading SW towards Hawaii where  a warning is still in effect.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

70 Responses to Tsunami “Wave” Passes Down Oregon Coast

  1. paulbeugene says:

    937mb

  2. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    For perspective, we have had more rain in the last two and a half weeks than in the previous 4 months!

  3. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Sandy

    Down to 943 MB

    Winds up to 90 MPH

    NW @ 20 MPH

  4. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    1.74″ in the 24 hour bucket here in the North Willamette Valley Banana Belt. At least looks like we got a dry slot.
    But nothin’ like what the mid-atlantic is going to see in the next few days. Batten down!

  5. Ron says:

    I’ve had 1.60″ since midnight Sunday morning, 6.70″ for the month so far. Hard to believe the rain didn’t start till Oct. 12th. That’s a lot of rain in just about 17 days. More rain on the way before we go into Nov.

  6. alohabb says:

    Wow, Sandy has yet to even really make its impact and the famous ship HM Bounty is taking on water and some crew members are missing

  7. Sandy is now 946mb(27.94 in) which I believe has tied the all-time record minimum pressure with the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane. I think she is going to continue to slowly strengthen and I think I see some Cyclogenesis occurring now too. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-wv-long.html
    946mb is quite a bit deeper than all 00z models at this point except for the HWRF which is really right on top of things(HWRF has landfall at 938mb) In 12 hours there may be an absolute monster around 940mb off New Jersey.

    • CORRECTION: Hurricane Hunters have now found 945.5mb(27.92 in) breaking the all-time record.

    • Winds 85mph Gusts 100mph…. Can see on WV Loop dry air/jet energy now beginning to punch into Sandy.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      No matter how you slice it, if Sandy is strengthening as a tropical cyclone, and/or intensifying due to baroclinic forcing, my suggestion is the same, batten down the hatches – quick, men! Hahaah!

      Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 28
      Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 29, 2012

      Sandy continues to maintain an area of deep convection near the center…with an eye occasionally visible on satellite imagery.
      Although the satellite presentation of the system is not very
      impressive…SFMR measurements…flight-level winds…and dropsonde data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the winds have increased to near 75 kt. Since the hurricane will traverse the Gulf Stream this morning…and the shear is not too strong at this time…some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is possible in the next few hours. However…the main mechanism for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing.

    • 6z NAM: Initialized 959mb(9-13mb too weak) Landfall: 951mb southern New Jersey/Delaware
      6z GFS: Initialized 960mb(10-14mb too weak) Landfall: 949mb southern New Jersey/Delaware
      So, once again GFS/NAM simply have no handle on Sandy and apparently will not. Time to throw out these models and probably stick with the HWRF/ECMWF.

    • Latest Recon from Hurricane Hunters pressure readings of 941 and 944mb…. Double WOW

    • Sandy is now just starting to turn west of due north. The well modeled northwest turn I believe is occurring.

  8. The latest on Hurricane Sandy

    2 AM Advisory
    Hurricane Sandy
    Maximum Winds 75mph
    Gusts 90mph
    Movement N at 14mph
    Minimum Pressure 950mb (28.04 in)

    ====== 00z Analysis ======
    Models: Canadian/UKMET/GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF

    * 00z Canadian: Initialized at 961mb 11-12mb too weak. Landfall: 948mb New Jersey

    * 00z UKMET: Initialized at 961mb 11-12mb too weak. Landfall: 951mb southern New Jersey/Delaware

    * 00z GFS: Initialized at 963mb(13-14mb too weak) Landfall: 949mb southern New Jersey

    * 00z NAM: Initialized at 959mb(9-10mb too weak) Landfall: 952mb central New Jersey

    * 00z ECMWF: Initialized at 956m(5-6mb too weak) Landfall: 945mb southern New Jersey/Delaware

    * 00z GFDL: Initialized at 963mb(13-14mb too weak) Landfall: 947mb southern New Jersey/Delaware

    * 00z HWRF: Initialized at 949mb(Accurate) Landfall: 938mb southern New Jersey/Delaware

    Disturbing because I think this model has the best handle on Sandy and has proven to consistently have the best initialization the past few days. Does that mean Sandy is ultimately going to deepen to sub 940mb? Unsure, but wouldn’t rule it out yet.

    *Models overall continue to show poor initialization except for the ECMWF/HWRF. I would have to think the fact both those models are doing a good job tonight with handling this that they will prove to be correct and perhaps they suggest Sandy will be 938-943mb at landfall. Sandy’s target continues to shrink now somewhere between New Jersey/Delaware. Overall strength is pointing toward sub-950mb(if not lower) I guess we’ll have to see how much jet energy/cold air is pulled into Sandy and how she responds in terms of Cyclogenesis.

    Satellite Products(Visible/Shortwave IR2/Water Vapor/RGB/Standard/AVN/Dvorak/JSL/Funktop/Rainbow/RBTOP)
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/18L_floater.html

  9. PDX-EUG now -3.5mb, wind is picking up pretty dang good.

    I see on the NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis chart a 1003mb low west of Astoria was supposed to dissipate http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg,
    but looking at recent WV Loop 4km/8km http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/loopsat.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=wv&size=4 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

    46 N/128 W. If anything shows strengthening as I see circulation far more evident with nice darkening too. Interesting..

  10. bgb41 says:

    10/28/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:72 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft) & ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 59 at W7OBH Canby(164 ft) & Salem, McNary Fi(210 ft) & DW9524 Lebanon(354 ft) and 4 other locations.

    Coldest:
    High:40 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 29 at Pine Ridge (4220 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    Worden (64/30 ) (4080 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.10″ at NORTH FORK(3120ft)
    2.57″ at YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080ft)
    2.22″ at DW0237 Lees Camp(699ft)
    2.20″ at SOUTH FORK BULL(2630ft)
    2.12″ at WA7ZVY-4 Newport(128ft)
    2.11″ at CEDAR(2220ft)

  11. 00z ECMWF
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Long Range hinting at a possible cold trough/some ridging at 160 W.

  12. W7ENK says:

    1.08″ of rain at my location since midnight, and it’s still raining…

    • JJ97222 says:

      The rain is here for while, It is so amazing that just couple weeks ago we were high and dry. A lot of us on this blog were wishing for rain,well it is off or on here and it is certainly on right now I already have that cooped up feeling ah it will pass.

    • Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

      I was wishing for it and I never want it to stop. Ok, it can stop on July 4th.

    • W7ENK says:

      Closing out the day with 1.18″ of rain, which brings my monthly total up to 6.26″

      Still raining, and the wind is really starting to pick up now.

  13. pappoose in scappoose says:

    Ya, Extreme Weather, coming soon to a theater near you! Hahaah!

    http://www.earthcam.com/events/breakingnews/

  14. JJ97222 says:

    Hey we are in the clouds, nice steady rain in Milwaukie. It is pretty ugly out there and likely to be that way for the trick or treaters glad that is over for me to follow my kids around, I put in 12 to 14 years of soggy fun that felt like it would never end. I can only remember a few that were dry and not freezing cold. Drove through Pourland today the street drains are plugged with you know what so it should be fun tomorrow to drive around.

  15. Here’s the live feed of the TWC coverage of Hurricane Sandy

    • Sifton says:

      After watchin a little & reading/observing Sandy only in the last 24hrs. or so, it seems like the only ‘real threat’ is flooding in some areas yes?

    • W7ENK says:

      You’re kidding, right? Or is the Eastern Seaboard better suited to handle 80-100 mph winds than we are??

    • Sifton says:

      Not at all, 50-75 was what I last saw reported. Sure some damage will occur, but when I heard the Stock Exchange shutting down & the forecast that went with that region for the next day or so “over doing it” was what came to mind.

    • This evacuation map is as serious as it gets Sifton. I don’t blame them for shutting down the NYSE. If the storm surge is high enough Wall St and the WTC could go under water. Is that real enough for you?
      http://project.wnyc.org/news-maps/hurricane-zones/hurricane-zones.html

    • W7ENK says:

      Current model projections are underestimating potential wind speeds… I though we’d already established that?

      80-110 mph seems more realistic with this storm.

    • Sifton says:

      Yeah upon further investigation it appears only the trading floor is being shut down since it’s located almost on the shore in lower Manhattan, makes sense. Which brings me back around, flooding in numerous areas & minor damage is all that appears to me at this moment.

    • W7ENK says:

      And Mike is absolutely correct. Street level in lower Manhattan is only 15 or so feet above the average high tide line. The subway tunnels are below that. If this storm really brings with it a 10 foot storm surge with 10′ waves riding atop that, there could be a lot of water in the streets of NYC come tomorrow, funneling down the stairways and rushing into the subway tunnels.

    • Sifton says:

      The LIVE Hurricane Sandy Coverage via YouTube says 75 so who knows………..

    • Longview - 400 ft says:

      I am at a lost at how you keep saying “minor damage” Sifton!!! This will be the storm of the century for the east coast. The Perfect Storm II has arrived. It will devastate a large area!!
      I have said enough!!!!! YIKES!!!!

    • Here’s a link to a host of webcams for NYC. I bet at least one of them will show streets being submerged because of storm surge.
      http://www.earthcam.com/network/index.php?country=us&page=NY

    • Sifton says:

      Excuse me, I mean “minor wind related damage”. Flooding causes damage yes I know but in it’s own manner. Now just found out indeed the NYSE is completely shutting down & they are even thinking about Tuesday as well. With this shakey economy that’s all we need, get ready for 5 buck gas again I’m afraid. My point was maybe this ‘storm’ is just being a little overhyped, kinda like when it snows more than an inch here & complete panic sets in.

    • The Columbus Day Storm was a little above 960mb while Sandy is 950mb and still decreasing some. Does that mean our storms are overhyped as well?

  16. WhiteEagle - Garden Home / SW Portland says:

    In case you haven’t seen it yet, check out this dire Public Information Statement from NWS Philadelphia/Mt. Holly, NJ…:

    SOME IMPORTANT NOTES…

    1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

    2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN.

    3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
    RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

    4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES.

    5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

    WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

    $$

    NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

  17. runrain says:

    Pretty cool live discussion going on about Sandy at live.bigbrainsmedia.com. A must see for weather nerds!

  18. paulbeugene says:

    Trick or Treat forecast looks quite soggy…seems to me GFS (looking on MM5) a bit faster with passage of wet frontal boundary Wednesday morning/afternoon, so things MIGHT dry out for the evening, whereas NAM looks like rain lasts into the night. Guess I should hold back a bit on the halloween props. A couple years ago I came home to find my 400W black light exploded in the rain (the purple outer bulb/shield exploded) exposing the central bulb (I think it is one of those high intensity metal halide bulbs)…needlessly exposing to trick or treaters to spooky UV radiation if they stood in front of the exceedingly bright light.

  19. paulbeugene says:

    18Z models (GFS, ECMWF) have backed off a bit on predicted on lowest pressure of Sandy upon approach to New Jersey..from upper 940s up to the low 950s. I doubt that will significantly mitigate the misfortune of those on the east coast.

    Nice and mild down here in Eugene….63F dewpoint but not a whole lot of rain yet.

    Looks mild and variably wet for next 10 days. Soonest we will see any snowflakes on the passes over the Cascades is probably around November 8, and even that is marginal.

    Looking at CFSv2 weekly output for next month…looks mostly mild through mid November, wet to end October and into first week of November.

    I suspect we won’t see return of sustained snowy weather on passes, ski areas until 3rd or 4th week of November.

    I am pleased that there are no big ridges in sight.

    • Around Nov 10th shows Arctic air arrives not much moisture around at that time. Now if we can get moisture to mix with arctic air things may get exciting around mid nov.

    • Kyle says:

      I think Sandy might be messing with our artic air as according to this thread and the main weather discussion back in Mid October it was looking VERY likely for a severe Artic Outbreak.

      http://westernusawx.info/forums/index.php?showtopic=34222
      October Artic Outbreaks And What They Lead to.

      A list of years that featured early season Artic Airmasses and what happened later that year. Good read actually!

    • Kyle says:

      All the atmospheric signals were there for such an event.

      Here is the last post of the thread I mentioned about what wouold happen to Fresno by Steve Johnson a Met down in California picking up on it.

      Steve Johnson, a Central Valley met is picking up on the possible Arctic outbreak & what is could mean for crops in the Fresno area:

      Special Notation; The introduction of -34°Cand -36°C cold core storms into the synoptic discussion during mid October is bothersome to say the least. There are lots fields in the SJV that still need to be harvested!!! This is unseasonably early for air this cold to be descending into the mid latitudes. It’s also unusual to see an Omega blocking ridge pattern with an undercutting breakthru supplying a subtropical fetch of moisture convergence into a storm system. These are all mid winter type extreme events, and since it’s only mid October, that makes it even more unbelievable…almosttoo unbelievable. Therefore a low confidence vote is place upon this extensive forecast, just because it’s way off in Fantasyland. It’s too early to see if there is any confidence in this scenario or whether it’s just a model fluke that will be edited out soon…which is highly probable. It’s also too early for the Penn State Website to see if this is a record-setting event, but if the 0Z GFS forecast model does come close to verifying, then this could be a record-setting event for both temps and for rainfall. Therefore, Ag Interests please take notice and keep this event in mind as harvesting is scheduled. I remain hopeful and optimistic that future model runs will edit the charts and tone down the wild suggestions that have been made during this very interesting model run. Watch carefully for the next 16Day Forecast edition and discussion.

  20. The latest on Hurricane Sandy

    Hurricane Sandy
    Maximum Winds 75mph
    Gusts 90mph
    Movement NE at 15mph
    Minimum Pressure 952mb (28.11 in)

    ====== 12z Analysis ======
    Models: Canadian/UKMET/GFS/NAM/
    Did not add the ECMWF due to FCST time plots not being helpful. Did not add the GFDL/HWRF they do not seem updated.

    ***As of 12z Sandy was 951mb, thus the model initialization is well off still and is playing catch up with the depth.

    * 12z Canadian: Initialized at 965(14mb too weak) Landfall: 947-948mb Central/Southern New Jersey

    * 12z UKMET: Initialized at 964(13mb too weak) Landfall: 949-950mb Central/Southern New Jersey

    * 12z GFS: Initialized at 966(15mb too weak) Landfall: 947-948mb Central/Southern New Jersey

    * 12z NAM: Initialized at 962(11mb too weak) Landfall: 953-954mb Central New Jersey

    New Jersey is ground zero it appears. Depth overall is around 950mb. Important to note Sandy is running stronger by 10-15mb compared to model initialization. Certainly hoping that doesn’t continue and translate to strength and landfall which could mean a potential absolute lowest minimum pressure of 932-937mb. I suppose it is possible to be sub 940mb if it undergoes explosive Cyclogenesis. I do not think Sandy weakens below where its at now perhaps minor fluctuations around 952-954mb, but with cold air and increased jet energy intensification over the next 18-24 hours would be more likely.

    • WhiteEagle - Garden Home / SW Portland says:

      Great analysis as usual, Rob…

      Regardless of which model is correct, it appears imminent this will be one of the biggest storms in American history.

      It scares the H-E-double hockey sticks out of me that too many people are focusing on the Category 1 aspect of this storm. 70-90 mph gusts across 10 states and 30-50 million people will be a lot more devastating than 140 mph gusts along 50 miles of Texas coastline. The surge will be incredible. If the models are correct, this will be Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey’s Katrina.

      They seem to be preparing a LOT better for it though…thank GOD.

    • Thank you. Yeah this truly will be historic.

  21. JJ97222 says:

    My brother is at his condo at Collins Lake today he said the rain is coming down in a big way right now in Government Camp, looks like we will have to start over at the ski resorts bummer.

  22. Gina says:

    In the past 24 hours at my place just out side of Battle Ground Wa near Yacolt Wa I have received close to 3 inches of Rain and it’s still adding up. So far for the month of Oct I am close to 11 inches. Crazy wet pattern it’s been. How is every one else total going for the month ??

  23. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Watching the all mighty weather channel, they must’ve hired John Madden to commentate and draw us a weather play for hurricane Sandy. It was kinda funny with all the storm tracks drawn up, and the TV met drawing over the top, I thought I’d changed over to Monday night football. I think he’d be a perfect fit, his dramatic overtones, and artistic skills…just saying.

  24. Kyle says:

    Okay. I don’t mean *rip* it apart. I was just teasing but still this storm sure got a lot of hype until the Tsunami and Hurricane Sandy took over the spotlight which the latter is fun to track.

    I wonder if people will posting the live webcams on here?

  25. Kyle says:

    The Sunday edition. Now where is that 1 inches of rain?

    Is it time yet to rip apart Mark’s forecast? LOL

    • Ron says:

      “Rip apart?” You need to work on your gentleness of speech. Seems that you have that problem a lot. You can add all the LOL’s you want, but you don’t seem like a very nice kid.

    • vernonia1 says:

      Ron… Kyle is a wonderful kid with some developmental challenges. He has been here since the beginning & we all “get it” when his posts seem angry or ?? Hope this helps.

  26. *BoringOregon* says:

    Thank a big one might hit again here?

  27. bgb41 says:

    10/27/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:66 at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389 ft)
    Low: 55 at Florence Municip(52 ft) & Brookings (US 10(150 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:35 at MOSS SPRINGS(5850 ft) & SCHNEIDER MEADOW(5400 ft)
    Low: 21 at CRAZYMAN FLAT (6100 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 34 degrees
    CW1010 Sisters (62/28 ) (3189 ft )
    Lorella (60/26) (4160 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    3.38″ at CEDAR(2220ft)
    3.13″ at HEBOWX Mt. Hebo(3160ft)
    2.78″ at LOG CREEK(2800ft)
    2.78″ at Mount Hood Meado(5249ft)

  28. The latest on Hurricane Sandy

    2 AM Advisory
    Hurricane Sandy
    Maximum Winds 75mph
    Gusts 90mph
    Movement NE at 13mph
    Minimum Pressure 960mb (28.35 in)
    *Hurricane Hunters finding some pressure readings of 958mb

    ====== 00z Analysis ======
    Models: Canadian/UKMET/GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GFDL/

    * 00z Canadian: Initialized at 967mb(7-9mb too weak). Landfall: 947-949mb Long Island, New York/Northern New Jersey

    * 00z UKMET: Initialized at 968mb(8-10mb too weak) Landfall 948-952mb Northern New Jersey

    * 00z GFS: Initialized at 972mb(12-14mb too weak) Landfall: 947-948mb Northern New Jersey

    * 00z NAM: Initialized at 963mb(3-5mb too weak) Landfall 954mb Northern New Jersey

    * 00z ECMWF: Initialized at 962mb(2-4mb too weak) Landfall 955-958mb Northern New Jersey

    * 00z GFDL: Initialized at 976mb(16-18mb too weak) Landfall 951mb Southern New Jersey

    00z Wind Wave Height forecast

    This is the WORST case scenario for New York City. This shows 30-40’+ seas offshore and as the center continues to move onshore those 30-40′ waves are going to only spread north and west through Long Island Sound.

    The overall track and landfall target continues to get smaller with a bulls eye for the Central-Northern New Jersey becoming apparent. Minimum Pressure overall has lowered a notch with sub 950mb appearing the rule of thumb. I had been forecasting 945-955mb the past 2 days, but that may not be low enough. We’ll just have to see how explosive the Cyclogenesis is once Sandy can entrain the colder air from the trough into it. I think the absolute potential Lowest Minimum Pressure is 937-943mb. We’re getting to that time frame where looking at the models becomes unnecessary and it’s more so time to look at the Satellite Loops and Current Observations.

    If Mayor Bloomberg doesn’t issue evacuations in
    specific locations, he’s ignorant, a fool, and can be blamed if for possible unnecessary deaths.

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      I agree Rob, Bloomberg might be putting a lotta folks in harm’s way. Was surprised when I saw him downplaying the potential danger.

  29. Imagine this just off our coastline. And a 7.7 would be minor compared to what scientists think we could get. Maybe we are next?

    • Sifton says:

      Good thing we’re this far inland huh, I’ve thought of scenarios if that ocean sent a wave cresting the coast range!

    • I think we’d need about a magnitude 13 quake to get a tsunami over the Coast Range.

    • pdxgeologist says:

      We have plenty of issues “inland” (maybe not so much in your neck of the woods Karl). Proximity to the rivers means liquefaction potential; old unreinforced masonry buildings (including schools); bridges with giant counterweights sitting on top of long moment arms. We’ll be in plenty of trouble without the tsunamis.

  30. Timmy Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    FIRST

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      You in!

      I just heard on the tube, there is the potential for a seven foot “Wave” in Hawaii.

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