The Super Storm Forecast

It is truly going to be a historic wind and rain storm for the East Coast Monday through Wednesday…here’s a snippet from the forecast discussion at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), emphasis added by me:

THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY…A PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. 

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

It’s hard to count that many isobars, but it forecasts a 939 millibar low at that point; far deeper than Hurricane Sandy is right now.  Think of it as a huge hole ripped through the atmosphere that air is rushing into.  Maybe more disturbing is the movement.  Since it has just been caught up in a cold upper-level trough in the Eastern USA, it moves quickly straight west into the New Jersey coastline.  6 hours later it’s on the coast. 

The areas to the north of the low (New Jersey, New York, and Long Island will get assaulted by hurricane force easterly wind and a storm surge.  The low has weakened significantly, up to about 960mb…yeah, only about as deep as our Columbus Day Storm! 

Remember that this is only ONE model, but it IS the ECMWF (European) model; the #1 forecast model on the planet.

Here are maps from the 18z GFS:

18z NAM:

and 12z GEM (Canadian):

These all show a landfall slightly farther north, closer to New York City or Long Island…the drama builds!

The New York Marathon A Washington DC marathon is Sunday, so runners…run fast and get the heck out of there!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

56 Responses to The Super Storm Forecast

  1. runrain says:

    Where this wind come from? Gusting pretty good out there.

  2. Hal in Aims says:

    you

  3. Hal in Aims says:

    where are getting this info?

  4. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    A TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…

    …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…

    …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…

    A TSUNAMI WARNING MEANS… ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA WHO ARE NEAR THE BEACH OR IN LOW-LYING REGIONS SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND AND AWAY FROM ALL HARBORS AND INLETS INCLUDING THOSE SHELTERED DIRECTLY FROM THE SEA. THOSE FEELING THE EARTH SHAKE… SEEING UNUSUAL WAVE ACTION… OR THE WATER LEVEL RISING OR RECEDING MAY HAVE ONLY A FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE TSUNAMI ARRIVAL AND SHOULD MOVE IMMEDIATELY. HOMES AND SMALL BUILDINGS ARE NOT DESIGNED TO WITHSTAND TSUNAMI IMPACTS. DO NOT STAY IN THESE STRUCTURES.

    ALL RESIDENTS WITHIN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR INSTRUCTIONS BROADCAST FROM THEIR LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES. EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE ARE KNOWN TO GENERATE TSUNAMIS.

    AT 804 PM PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME ON OCTOBER 27 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 7.1 OCCURRED 25 MILES/40 KM SOUTH OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA. EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE ARE KNOWN TO GENERATE TSUNAMIS. IF A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THE WAVES WILL FIRST REACH LANGARA ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 916 PM PDT ON OCTOBER 27. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES AND MAPS ALONG WITH SAFETY RULES AND OTHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

    TSUNAMIS CAN BE DANGEROUS WAVES THAT ARE NOT SURVIVABLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AMPLIFIED BY IRREGULAR SHORELINE AND ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. TSUNAMIS OFTEN APPEAR AS A STRONG SURGE AND MAY BE PRECEDED BY A RECEDING WATER LEVEL. MARINERS IN WATER DEEPER THAN 600 FEET SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED BY A TSUNAMI. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS WATER SHALLOWS. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF OCEAN WAVES WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. DO NOT RETURN TO EVACUATED AREAS UNTIL AN ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN BY LOCAL CIVIL AUTHORITIES.

    PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

    THIS MESSAGE WILL BE UPDATED IN 30 MINUTES OR SOONER IF THE SITUATION WARRANTS. THE TSUNAMI MESSAGE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO… YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO STATIONS… OR SEE THE WEB SITE WCATWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

  5. Andrew (Portland....Sylvan Highlands ~800 feet) says:

    7.7 magnitude earthquake just hit British Columbia, Tsunami Warning now issued.

    http://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=e03a6e895721fff1&hl=en&gl=US&source=web

  6. Mike says:

    W7ENK, Please do not post vulgar misuse of our Lord’s and/or of God the Father’s name

    It’s extremely distasteful and I know you don’t want His Wrath to come into your life.

    Thank you

    • W7ENK says:

      Excuse me?

      When did I what, and huh???

      o_O

    • W7ENK says:

      Mark, I don’t mean to rock your boat here, but honestly I take issue with some righteous knucklehead cramming their beliefs down my throat and imposing their personal moral compass onto the way I choose to live my own life. If I wanted someone to chastise me for being a terrible human being in the eyes of The Almighty magical chocolate egg laying baby Jeebus bunny, I’d go join a congregation or post regularly on ChristianCrackheads.com. Instead, I thought I was posting on the Fox 12 Weather Blog…?

    • Just say your 3 Hailmarys and be glad your punishment wasn’t worse, Mister.

    • Kassi97222 says:

      “Our” lord huh? Interesting… I dont know who YOUR lord is, but it is clearly not the same as mine. Some people should really mind their own business. If you don’t like what someone says on a WEATHER blog, ignore it. Stop pushing your views on others. By the way BRING ON THE WRATH, because frankly I’m here to learn, read and talk about weather NOT people bickering about “The Almighty magical chocolate egg laying baby Jeebus bunny.”

    • Kassie97222 says:

      Look at that… I spelled my name wrong. -.-

    • I don’t know what happened but since when did religion become a part of a weather blog? Lets keep that off the blog please.

  7. Nice and warm out there. 61.2 with a 15-20mph south wind.

  8. B a t te n d o w n t h e h a t c h e s G o i n g t o b e a w i l d r i d e s t a y s a f e i f y o u r ” r e b a c k e a s t

    • Kyle says:

      Ahoy there matey!

    • Kyle says:

      (Speaks thru the ships mega tube to the other ship)

      How’s the weather brewin on your end?

    • W7ENK says:

      O h m y f o r k i n g g o d c o m m a i ” m n o t e v e n g o i n g t o r e a d t h i s r i d i c u l o u s b u l l s p i t e x c l a m a t i o n o p i n t

      *sigh*

    • ’@ w-7 You shall not misuse the name of the LORD your God, for the LORD will not hold anyone guiltless who misuses his name

    • W7ENK says:

      I didn’t realize I wasn’t allowed to use the words “god” and “fork” in the same sentence… my bad.

      Hey Mark, when did your blog get taken over by the Jeebus über-fan club??

    • Chris s says:

      Steve, no offense but if you are an adult, you should be embarrassed by your previous use of punctuation and grammar on this blog. And it’s a weather blog, not a religious blog, so if you take offense to what Erik said, which was not bad, than maybe keep that to yourself. Just my .02 cents. 😊

  9. W7ENK says:

    Rain started 7am, hasn’t really stopped since, just a light drizzle at the moment. Up to 0.44″ so far at my place here in Milwaukie.

    Family and friends on the Eastern Seaboard don’t seem to be taking this “Frankenstorm” too seriously at this point. Perhaps that’s due to a lack of push from the media? I don’t know, but that complacency could be fatal for some, especially along the coast. Landfall will roughly coincide with high tide under a full moon. A +2′ normal high tide with a +10′ storm tide and another +10 to 12′ storm surge (waves atop mean waterline) could mean the streets at the South end of Manhattan go under several feet of water. I’ve never been there myself, but a friend who used to live in lower Manhattan told me the streets are only 10 to 15 feet above the normal high tide line.

    This is not a storm to mess around with! 😦

    • lurkyloo says:

      I think it was CBS news that referred to this as a hybrid megastorm. Hybrid megastorm? How often does that get predicted? Run to the hills, East Coast folks!

  10. JJ97222 says:

    Gutters cleaned for the first time moss control powder on the roof ready for the heavy rain and overseeded the yard, the warm temps will keep the grass growing. We may even see all that new snow wash down the Sandy and reroute it again. Mt Hood was pretty white with new snow as I flew by last night.

  11. Kyle says:

    I spy with my little eyes clearing trying to form above me as usual.

  12. Kyle says:

    So where is the 3 inches of rain the RPM models predicted?

    I told my parents about it which they raked some of the leaves yesterday so there won’t be a blizzard of them during the storm.

    • chris s says:

      It was 3 inches by the end of Monday Kyle, so why dont you wait till then to ask? I would say we have a pretty decent shot at getting to that number by then, it looks to be quite wet tomorrow and monday. 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      Hope so! I just panic easy. The clouds have been pretty broken today other then a few *spits* of Oregon mist as we call it.

      In most Northern California places especially at any location around 1K feet you REALLY get hosed during most pacific fronts not to mention the southerly winds that come with it.

      Places like Magalia or Paradise get 15 inches of rain or more each month in the winter during wet years. They literally get HOSED but it’s all on top of a canyon which makes the water run off so very little if any flooding occurs.

      It’s very hard for those places to experience flooding other then your standard storm drain clogging. 😛

  13. Ron says:

    Looks like the rain has turned showery for now. .19″ so far for the day off Springwater Rd between OC and Estacada.

  14. Garron near Washington Square says:

    How does this storms projected strength compare to the Columbus Day storm? Not talking affected [population, just cause and effect?

    • Kyle says:

      Looks like timing is much longer. I believe the Columbus Day storm lasted only a few hours but then again that storm came during the early afternoon hours which many people were caught at work.

  15. Kyle says:

    Better yet. I wonder if any weather geeks will be taking wind videos up on the observation deck…….or if the deck is closed at least on the inside part up high?

  16. Kyle says:

    I wonder if the Empire State Building will be taken out by this storm or severely damaged?

  17. napapjd says:

    NYC Marathon is November 4, not this Sunday.

  18. bgb41 says:

    10/26/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:69 at CW5302 Roseburg( 410 ft)
    Low: 51 at DW1265 Newport(164 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:29 at MT. HOWARD(7910 ft)
    Low: 12 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & ANEROID LAKE #2 (7300 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 38 degrees
    DW0266 Paisley (59/21 ) (4380 ft )
    Rome (58/20) (4049 ft)

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    0.96″ at WANDERER’S PEAK(4350ft)
    0.53″ at WEST FORK SATSOP(301ft)

  19. David B. says:

    What’s really worrisome about this is that Long Island Sound makes a perfect funnel for for concentrating and amplifying a surge from a storm moving westward like this, and the storm is predicted to hit during a full moon when tides will only magnify this effect.

    Remember, Katrina really wasn’t very strong (as hurricane winds go) when it finally hit the Gulf Coast; it had weakened considerably in the hours before landfall. The winds, that is: the surge was still at category 5 levels, and that’s what did the real damage.

  20. longbeachrob says:

    I wonder how much some of the sky scrappers move in wind like that. I bet there is going to be a lot of seasick people!

  21. Sifton says:

    Just saw the new ‘rain’ promos with Mark & Andy. But what is Marks last line in his, I didn’t catch it??

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      “There’s a name for people who live here…UNSTOPPABLE!” I had to memorize it, the only reason I remember…

    • Sifton says:

      Oh,”unstoppable”. Shoot when this whole weather gig dries up for you Mark there’s always Hollywood, I hear their looking for another Matty Broderick type!

    • Timmy Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

      Mark when I first saw that; I was shocked! Great job on the promo, very catchy!!!!

  22. longbeachrob says:

    My uncle from Camp Sherman is on Long Island NY right now and will be there the whole time. I will tell him to keep his head down, but take us some pictures too! He just retired from the Bend Fire Dept where he was a Fire Marshal, and then later Assistant Chief.

  23. runrain says:

    I’m going to bet that they cancel the NYC Marathon. Remember, those folks have to get home too and I’ve heard that airlines are already preparing. No cancellations yet but they are waiving the change fees. And here I am hoping that the rain holds off here tomorrow morning so I can get my 10 miles in. Shame on me!

  24. It looks extratropical now very similar to our big windstorms here(such as November 1981) with the massive comma/fish hook structure. This will be awesome to track, but catastrophic for them.

  25. Brian in Bellingham says:

    Great animation of Sandy and the Fujiwhara affect here:

    You can see Sandy take a very dramatic turn left as the two storms “dance” around each other.

  26. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    The once a century storms have been battering the east coast the last two years…just different variations.

  27. Thats some pretty seriously low low-pressure gradients.

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