The Super Storm Forecast

October 26, 2012

It is truly going to be a historic wind and rain storm for the East Coast Monday through Wednesday…here’s a snippet from the forecast discussion at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), emphasis added by me:

THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY…A PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. 

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

It’s hard to count that many isobars, but it forecasts a 939 millibar low at that point; far deeper than Hurricane Sandy is right now.  Think of it as a huge hole ripped through the atmosphere that air is rushing into.  Maybe more disturbing is the movement.  Since it has just been caught up in a cold upper-level trough in the Eastern USA, it moves quickly straight west into the New Jersey coastline.  6 hours later it’s on the coast. 

The areas to the north of the low (New Jersey, New York, and Long Island will get assaulted by hurricane force easterly wind and a storm surge.  The low has weakened significantly, up to about 960mb…yeah, only about as deep as our Columbus Day Storm! 

Remember that this is only ONE model, but it IS the ECMWF (European) model; the #1 forecast model on the planet.

Here are maps from the 18z GFS:

18z NAM:

and 12z GEM (Canadian):

These all show a landfall slightly farther north, closer to New York City or Long Island…the drama builds!

The New York Marathon A Washington DC marathon is Sunday, so runners…run fast and get the heck out of there!

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen


18z RPM…A Lot of Rain Ahead!

October 26, 2012

Here’s our 18z RPM model rain output from midday today to midday Monday:

 

Last time I saw numbers this high was back in January when we had some flooding.  The WRF-GFS still is saying 5-8″ rain in the Cascades as well.  We’ll see if we get flooding out of this; the next 5 days sure looks similar to November 2006 to me…