Rain Keeps Adding Up; Was It Really Dry?

Seems like just a dream, was this really our 7 Day Forecast 3 weeks ago?

It’s just a memory now and we sure DID need the rain.  But considering the first 1/3 of October was dry, it’s amazing that we are now ABOVE AVERAGE for October rainfall.  We are at about 3.45″ at PDX, which is well above the 2.88″ we typically get in the month of October.  Add in more showers tomorrow, plus some heavier rain likely sometime between Sunday and next Wednesday, and I think it’s quite possible we get 5″ for the month.  If we get more than 4″ (very likely) it’ll be our wettest October in 15 years!

The wetter west side of the Mt. Hood National Forest has seen 7-13″ totals, and I see some totals close to 16″ up around Mt. St. Helens.  These are precipitation (rain and melted snow), not snow totals…the wet season has arrived with a vengeance!

The sad part for the mountains is that a decent chunk of the fresh snowpack on the ground below 6,000′ is going to melt at some point in the next week; snow levels will soar starting Friday. 

And heavy rain is the biggest enemy of snow cover, far more than warm sunshine and clear skies.

Speaking of heavy and mild rain; models show our cold and wet atmosphere departing after one more day of showers and sunbreaks tomorrow.  It’ll be replaced by a weak upper-level ridge along the West Coast Friday through Sunday.  A warm front rides over the ridge Friday, bringing a classic drippy, gray, cool day.  Southerly wind should kick in Saturday and/or Sunday for warmer temps. 

Models have been in some disagreement on the amount and placement of heavier rain for early week (Sunday-Tuesday).   ECMWF was real bullish on heavy rain later Sunday and Monday.  New 00z GFS isn’t too dramatic…just MORE rain.

Right now I don’t see any real strong wind events or flooding rain in the next 7 days, just more slop.

And for that person that wrote me a nasty email three weeks ago claiming I was “ignoring the drought”?  THIS is why I didn’t get real excited about the early Fall dry weather.

By the way, FOX12 has the World Series again this year.  First game around 5pm tomorrow at San Francisco.  Could be a few showers, but more likely dry.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

52 Responses to Rain Keeps Adding Up; Was It Really Dry?

  1. JJ97222 says:

    Well it is dry in Williston 31 degrees with a strong 25 mph wind, the nice weather in Pourland has left us, long lines at Starbucks and board games will be the ticket until the ski resorts open we all knew we would pay!

  2. Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

    That’s been one big train a-rollin just north of McMinnville and stretching from the Coast Range to ~ the I5-205 junction.

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RTX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    Been continuing for at least the better part of an hour.

  3. lilfoot123 says:

    We’ve gotten jipped all day in Longview, WA

  4. Looks like the cool air that’s been over us for the last few days is about to make its departure. On to some warmish rains for the next week or so. Say g’bye to the snow thats on the ground at the ski areas 😦

    • Chris s says:

      It is kinda a shame, because they actually got a fair amt of snow, but yet we will probably end up seeing ski resorts open after thanksgiving as the next few weeks don’t look too promising.😟

  5. *BoringOregon* says:

    Thank where about to get hit!?!?

  6. Just got a call from my girlfriend who was headed towards Sunnyside on 172nd saying she saw a very distinct funnel over Mt Scott which roped out about 20-30 seconds later

  7. Radar shows this has really become more of an organized squall. You can really tell this on Base Velocities as the wind field becomes very organized along the feature. If we had more CAPE and Wind Shear you could entertain the idea of strong winds, but we do not. There could still be hail and an isolated lightning strike with this.

  8. Dave in Sherwood says:

    Thunder!!! Pouring rain and thunder here.

  9. Decent cell developing near Wilsonville Possibly hail and maybe a t-storm too.

  10. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    In parkdale today, decent sun breaks after a good moderate shower just rolled through. I’m at about 1800′ and theres some snow in the hills to the east presumably from that last shower. Don’t recall seeing snow in the hills this am. Any chance a heavy shower rolls through and drops a few flakes? Or am I just too darn low…

  11. Tracking the potential mega low for the Northeastern U.S. for early next week.

    12z Canadian – 946mb low landfall Nantucket/Massachusetts

    12z UKMET – 957mb low moving towards the coast of Maine & Nova Scotia. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

    12z GFS – 949mb low moving towards the coast of Maine.

    12z ECMWF – Is much further south 953mb landfall Maryland/Delaware Coast. Due to that landfall occurs much sooner compared to the other 3 models. http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_120_0000.gif

    It’s a bit ominous that all of the models camps suggest that Sandy will impact the eastern Seaboard or northeastern U.S. now. Compared to 12z yesterday where only one model had Sandy tracking this way. It is all going to depend on where exactly the blocking or “steering” high to the north is located.

    • *BoringOregon* says:

      And, I keep on thanking that. I use to live in New England Massachusetts never have I saw a power pole that was blown up by a lightning strike !! And I guess they are saying it might turn into a nor’easter.

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      The Perfect Storm version II?

      As I recall the first one occurred around Halloween, but I think that was a short wave that interacted with a Hurricane.

    • phil, you make a fair observation there. Also look at how the storm draws in cold air from further inland.

    • Mike in Tigard says:

      possible perfect storm #2 or super storm

    • Punxsutawney aka HIOPHIL says:

      Wish I could find my copy of the book, “The Perfect Storm”. There was a pretty good description of the weather conditions and meteorology behind the storm. Seems to me it retrograded back toward the coast, not dissimilar to what the Euro is showing, though it never moved inland.

  12. Tracking the potential mega low for the Northeastern U.S. for early next week.

    12z Canadian – 946mb low landfall Nantucket/Massachusetts

    Loop – http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    12z UKMET – 957mb low moving towards the coast of Maine & Nova Scotia. http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
    Loop – http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    12z GFS – 949mb low moving towards the coast of Maine.

    Loop – http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    12z ECMWF – Is much further south 953mb landfall Maryland/Delaware Coast. Due to that landfall occurs much sooner compared to the other 3 models. http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_12/GZ_PN_120_0000.gif
    Loop – http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=ecmwf&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

    It’s a bit ominous that all of the models camps suggest that Sandy will impact the eastern Seaboard or northeastern U.S. now. Compared to 12z yesterday where only one model had Sandy tracking this way. It is all going to depend on where exactly the blocking or “steering” high to the north is located.

  13. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Mark,

    1st you ignore our drought, now you ignore our flood? I saw squirrels rescuing their buried walnuts in row boats! What of the squirrels, who will save them???

  14. bgb41 says:

    ***NOVEMBER 2012 WEATHER CONTEST***
    How good are you are predicting next months weather at Portland Airport? Fill out the below form to submit your guesses.

    http://www.directpaintsaleswa.com/NOV2012/add.php

  15. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    4.14″ so far for me for the month. Already up and over an inch above normal.

  16. So I guess riding the motorcyle is out of the question…

  17. longbeachrob says:

    Seems like every year I hear “it’s never going to rain again.” And every year these same people complain about how wet it is. LOL

  18. Muxpux (Castle Rock 175') says:

    I’m headed to parkdale in te morning for work, would love to take the pass to see the snow but with a trailer and bad gas mileage probably be best off going 84. No chance of hitting snow going that route eh?

  19. bgb41 says:

    10/23/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:58 at Castle( 283 ft)
    Low: 45 at Tillamook Airpor(36 ft) & DW8735 Yachats(92 ft) & DW1265 Newport(164 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:22 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 17 at HOWARD Mt Howard (8150 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 25 degrees
    Umatilla (55/30 ) (190 ft )

    Heaviest Rainfall:
    2.05″ at ILLINOIS VALLEY(1389ft)
    1.75″ at MEARES Cape Mear(1421ft)
    1.73″ at BANDON(79ft)
    1.71″ at EW0059 Myrtle Po(174ft)

  20. W7ENK says:

    Not dry anymore… We shot past our normal rainfall for the month within 5 days of the first raindrops, if I’m not mistaken.

    Including today’s 0.09″, I’ve had 3.74″ of rainfall over the last 12 days.

    • David B. says:

      Looks like I was wrong about the rains starting exceptionally late but right about them starting with a vengeance like a switch turning on when they did.

  21. Timmy Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    Well, logic says that when Fall begins very warm and dry, it will come very wet and cold!!

    Almost the same comparison to December 2008 thru June 2009… Very snowy December => freak t’storms in June!

  22. David B. says:

    No surprise; cue the recording: “October snow comes and goes… but November snow stays and grows.”

  23. TygrrLilley says:

    “Slop” is exactly the reason I moved to the PNW from L.A. last year…I’ve seen enough sun to last 5 lifetimes. *lol* (and I love your blog, Mark!!)

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Can’t there be a happy middle ground? I think that’s Hood River’s climate.

    • karlbonner1982 says:

      A “middle ground” climate would be some place between Roseburg and Redding. At least if we’re looking at both sunshine AND temps….

    • TygrrLilley says:

      Middle ground? Nope, I’ll pass, thanks. Truth be told, I’d be perfectly content if I never saw the sun again. Something to do with a sort of “reverse SAD” thing with me, I dunno. LOL!!

  24. Sifton says:

    Ahhhhh, just lookin at that 1st. graphic stings!!

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