Last 70 Degree Day Today

Today looks spectacular.  We could get as high as the lower 70s here in the western Valleys under mostly sunny skies.  KPTV transmission tower temps at 1800′ are about 15 degrees warmer today compared to yesterday and a strong (stronger than expected) east wind is blowing out of the Gorge.  Peak gusts around 50 mph out there right now.  The morning sounding at Salem found a +13 deg C. temp at 850mb, also slightly warmer than expected.  That warm offshore flow will easily mix down to the surface.  Enjoy the warmth, especially since we are near the peak of fall colors.

Most likey we won’t hit 70 again this season, although it IS possible to hit it in November.  Just very rare.

Rain is still on the way by midnight tonight at the latest and it’ll be cool and showery starting Saturday.  The good news is that I don’t see a long period of solid cloud cover and heavy rain; just showers.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

83 Responses to Last 70 Degree Day Today

  1. Ron says:

    We just took a group of high school students from the outdoor club at La Salle HS up to Mirror Lake today. Light dusting of snow at the trail head at 10am at 3,450ft. At the lake at 4,425ft there was less than an inch but it was absolutely beautiful to see snow on the trees and at the lake this early. Vine maple was in full color and then add snow to it. . . Snow was gone at the trail head when we got down. Still mixed snow coming down when we left at 1pm

  2. paulbeugene says:

    Mm5 GFS extended run from 12z must have been corrupted as it showed much more snow for WA cascades..00z run more realistic…I should have known better than to believe it (it had 3+ feet on 12z)

  3. Temp 45.7F in mixed atmosphere. Squall line could drop temp to “cold rain” (39F?)

  4. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    The squall line that generated some excitement to the North certainly looked impressive … but so far it’s been pretty meh from here. Breezy, and just a few spits. Radar shows it’s been breaking up in the valley.
    The energy centroid of that next line Rob pointed out looks to be even further North.
    Looks like Washington will get most of the fun tonight.

  5. 00z GFS tonight will be….

    A little boring
    A slight chance of boring
    Slightly exciting
    Very boring
    Somewhat boring
    Not very boring
    Very exciting

  6. Prune Hill Outpost says:

    Torrential downpour here in rural Washougal. very heavy sustained rain.

  7. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    2 flashes lightning. I-5 near Bridgeport mall.

  8. paulbeugene says:

    Looking at MM5 extended model…looks like Mt Baker ski area may be able to open…looks to me they are getting 3+ feet of accumulations in the next week.

    Would not surprise me if timberline lodge had at least 6-12 inches. Not sure of Gov Camp accums at this point…at least a few inches but not quite to 1994 levels.

    Looks like we get back to wimpy normal October weather after next week per GFS and ECMWF…AM fog…afternoon sun….leaf raking weather.

  9. 12z ECMWF
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Icky ridge pops up near the end of the run. Inversion anyone?

  10. W7ENK says:

    Dark layers to the North of Downtown, kind of intimidating skies.

  11. I am starting to think we have an elevated chance of a top tier arctic outbreak this winter. That being said I think there is a good chance November ends up with above average temps.

    • Sure seems that way, I also could see a warmer November. Seems like we’ll be in this perpetual trough pattern through the rest of the month, but with the high the blocking highs keep setting up, I could see the warm Nov temps. That all could set up nicely for the previously mentioned “top-tier outbreak” with the retrogression of the high.

  12. Dave_in_Troutdale says:

    Now that the Winter Season is nearly upon us, myself and others were truly wondering who actually pops the MOST Viagra and Cialis during an extreme East Wind event like the one that happened during the Winter of 2008. Personally, I am guessing Jesse gets first place and maybe Rob 2nd… What do you all think?

  13. Kyle says:

    Here is an excerpt of a very fascinating post about the remote possibility of a hurricane striking Southern California which a tropical storm came in the 1970s.

    Subject: Could a hurricane ever strike Southern California
    Importance: High

    “I have seen this very thing happen before, when a former hurricane dissipates off the northern Baja California coast, and the upper part (above 3,000-3,500 feet) shears off and drifts northeastward into western Arizona (sometimes producing rain). The lower portions of the sopping-wet tropical cyclone (a weak tropical depression by now) often drifts WSWestward into the trade winds and slowly dissipates well out to sea. But sometimes there is enough of a southerly surge (surface and aloft) to bring the circulating remains of the once-hurricane northward into Southern CA. In that event, coastal areas and lower foothills will see SE 15G25 knots and sometimes even ESE 25G35 knots.

  14. bgb41 says:

    10/18/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:80 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & EMIGRANT LAKE AT(2042 ft) & YELLOWSTONE MTN.(3080 ft) & CEDAR(2220 ft)
    Low: 60 at RED MOUND(1753 ft) & FLYNN PRAIRIE(1543 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:52 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft) & HARL BUTTE(6071 ft) & CW7477 Lostine(7002 ft) & ANTELOPE(6460 ft) & WOLF CREEK(5700 ft)
    Low: 20 at KLAMATH NWR (4531 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    Lorella (76/21 ) (4160 ft )

  15. W7ENK says:

    Multivaritive Index

    ENSO 3.4 region

    Australian

  16. 00z GFS – 500mb model
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image&page=Param&cycle=10%2F19%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=region&returnToModel&imageSize=M
    FCST HR 141 – 276: Check out the 500mb pattern. Trough, blocking ridge, southern stream energy increasing, block eventually undercut, but that isn’t what caught my eye, no….

    It’s the PV moving out of the Arctic down into Nunavut racing towards British Columbia as its squeezed around high pressure over Alaska. PV turns more westerly near the Yukon/British Columbia border moving over southern Alaska before it heads out into the Gulf of Alaska. Note how quick and vigorously it moves. I don’t recall seeing that in mid-late October? Maybe so.
    FCST HR 141 – http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_namer_141_500_vort_ht_l.gif
    FCST HR 276 – http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/00/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht_l.gif

    • Kyle says:

      What is a Polar Vortex? Is it some kind of super windstorm for Oregon?

      If you ask me it sounds like something off a bad 60s Sci Fi TV Show that everyone makes fun of.

    • Looks like a game of Pong.

    • W7ENK says:

      @Kyle; Polar Vortex — it’s like a regular vortex, but instead of brown and full of dirt and debris it’s white and full of snow and ice. The hairs are different too, clear, like little hollow tubes, but interestingly the skin underneath is black.

      Hope this helps!

  17. Jesse-Stevenson says:

    68 at PDX today. The Mark Nelsen warm bias strikes again!!

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Haha! Oooh, a brand new IP address. I’ve missed your insulting and obnoxious comments Jesse. So you did end up moving to Stevenson? Should have far better snow there. You won’t like the extra summer sunshine though. You like it dark and cloudy.

    • bgb41 says:

      lmfao Mark Nelsen 🙂

    • Kyle says:

      I don’t see anything even resembling insulting in her post.

      She just posted it was 68F which was a shy below the 70F warm bias forecast you seem to have forgotten about.

    • Kyle says:

      My favorite weather is cold and clear. Those nights where the wind is still and the stars are unusually bright.

      If there weren’t so much light pollution from the valley I would invest in a decent telescope but most of the time here it’s usually sunny in the day and cloudy at night or too hazy in the summer. :p

    • Kyle says:

      One last thing Mark. Why do you like to read into people’s post to see if there is a fight?

      I used to be that way growing up due to life circumstances I won’t get into here and have learned it’s not healthy and if it’s not healthy for me then it’s not healthy for you.

      You are a trained meterologist and I know you are NOT stupid when it comes to weather and climate.
      I enjoy your graphs you put up as most weatherman are in it for their 15 seconds of fame and don’t give a rip.

      You should know better then to pick apart people’s posts for the slightest offense.

      I think Jesse was just teasing you and you are taking it way too personally.

    • Ron says:

      I didn’t know you were the new moderator, Kyle. Both Jesse and Mark were bantering. Probably best to stick to weather. Mark does a marvelous job with this blog. Most of us have expressed the enjoyment of him hanging out here and sharing with us. I think your comments were pretty rude and inappropriate. I would suggest that your comments were insulting.

    • W7ENK says:

      Bwaahahaha! 😆

    • gidrons says:

      I haven’t seen a post from Jesse since he called the blog a bunch of 5th graders. Welcome back. I’ll enjoy your observations from the gorge, especially the summer highs. Maybe Justin can tell you how many 90+degree days to expect.

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      Once again Kyle, Jesse is a boy (or man I suppose), not a girl. If he was a girl, it would probably be spelled Jessie. But thanks for the lecture anyway.

    • W7ENK says:

      Kyle’s never going to retain that little tidbit… :mrgreen:

    • LMAO Mark! Not only are you a meteorologist but a dang witty one at that, that’s why you’re the best! Glad I popped in for this and Kyle’s rant, had me crackin up, made my day!

    • LOL this is a fun read. Honestly we should think about a gig with Comedy Central sometimes….

  18. Scott (550' South Salem hills) says:

    Started raining here in South Salem around 9:30

  19. Jackfrost (Antelope, OR) says:

    Looking forward to seeing some ice and snow over here in antelope over the next week or so!

  20. lilfoot123 says:

    The front has come to Longview! TWC says rain & t-showers for next 6 hours! Just had a brief heavy downpour! Could have a t-storm
    as it is 60 at present!

  21. lilfoot123 says:

    Ok all the TWC for Longview showers & thundershowers the next six hours! There is some red & yellow on the radar to the west about to attack! So it has begun! Metal roof over master bedroom! Should be fun!

  22. 66 was my high. Looks like PDX just missed 70 as well…

  23. paulbeugene says:

    I just saw on other blog that Sept PDO index was -2.21…second coldest Sept PDO value since 1900….the record was in 1933…which was followed by the only winter on record without a freeze at PDX…but that won’t happen this winter……PDO has not been this negative since the mid 1950s (aside from Dec 2011).

    Looks like no one made the 70s today….

  24. Roseisarose says:

    I’m just looking forward to the all night “is it snowing” blog comments

  25. chris s says:

    18z a bit moist in la la land, 7 inches of rain in a week might be a bit much, unless you like pineapples!!! 🙂

  26. Sandi (Wilsonville) says:

    Good news on the Pole Creek Fire near Sisters:

    Firefighters achieved 100% containment on the Pole Creek Fire as of Wednesday, October 16, 2012….

    http://www.inciweb.org/incident/3244/

  27. Latest CFS Forecast for Nino 3.4
    As we progress through December check out all of the Ensemble members abruptly dipping into the weak La Nina territory.

    • Seems like forecast has been struggling with persistent el niño bias (note forecast plume has consistent trying to bounce out of a clear trend towards Nina territory). Give it up cfsv2, we are diving back into Nina consistent with cold PDO. Fine by me, I hate el Niño

    • Kyle says:

      The last decade it seems that El Nino and La Nina make no difference.

    • Kyle says:

      Not trying to be depressing but mother nature will do whatever the *beep* it wants to do.

      As the headlines of a global warming article once said it’s all about the sun stupid!

  28. 12z ECMWF reveals a change. Oh what does that mean? The blocking high stays put around 160 W. It doesn’t get pinched off, but energy progressively digs southwest offshore. Other than that end of the run low pressure intensifies west of Vancouver Island.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

    • SnowedIn - North Plains says:

      Totally random of me to ask this, but isn’t that what’s known as an omega block on hour 120 with 160 W going right through it? Or not?

  29. Temp: 59.5
    Dewpoint: 36
    Wind: ENE @ 14mph

    PDX-DLS -4.9mb
    OTH-GEG -8.6mb

    I think I’ll get to around 66-67 today due to the gusty east wind out here.

  30. Sifton says:

    Nice, off for the ‘last’ ride of 2012! (hopefully not)

  31. W7ENK says:

    You really think it’s going to reach 70 today?

  32. runrain says:

    As long as it’s dry for the OSU game Saturday night!

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