A “Normal” Warm Season; Measuring the 80s

No, I don’t mean that decade with big hair and bad music.  I mean 80 degree and higher temps.  This year we saw 56 days at/above 80 here in Portland.  That’s about normal (55-56 is normal) and significantly warmer than the last two summers.

By this measure, one could say we achieved a “normal” warm season.  As mentioned NUMEROUS times in previous posts, it was unusually cool and wet early in the season and then unusually warm and dry at the end in August and September.

90 degree days?  We were just slightly below average; 11 days vs. 13. 

70 degree days?  I don’t know, I didn’t feel like counting.

Now it’s time for rain.  That’s coming Friday.  No change in my thinking that we’ll see a weak system Friday to dampen things a bit, then more significant rain later Saturday and especially later Sunday and Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

43 Responses to A “Normal” Warm Season; Measuring the 80s

  1. Tracking the low on Monday(since it’s the only thing worth mentioning)

    Tonight’s 00z WRF shows a few differences
    2:00 AM Sunday -Open wave begins to develop near 38.5 N, 158 W

    5:00 PM Sunday – Open wave now becoming a closed area of low pressure around 999mb and beginning to trek E-NE.

    2:00 AM Monday – Slowly strengthening low now around 994mb moving NE towards Vancouver Island. This would take it outside of the critical 130 W line.

    11:00 AM Monday – Low makes landfall near Central Vancouver Island at 986mb.

    Just breezy conditions Olympia southward to Eugene. A decent gradient does swing inland over the northern Washington Coast, northern Puget Sound, and the north interior of Washington.

    This obviously wouldn’t be a wind storm. I did notice the low develops further south near 160 W than on previous runs. There will be a lot of tropical moisture and energy to fuel a deep low, so we need to keep an eye on things. Perhaps by Friday 00z we will have a much better idea. My guess is the low will undergo cyclogenesis outside of the 130 W line and not in the 130 W/40 N sweet spot thus re-curving it harmlessly towards central or northern Vancouver Island. Otherwise it would be foolish to make a definitive forecast on wind speeds/gusts at this point.

  2. Emily Waldman says:

    Moisture on the windows tonight after work requiring the deforst & wipers ! Here we good! Please take care all! We are not used to wet road driving! Slow down

  3. chris says:

    still a thick fog in the Puget sound.I wonder if we will clear out at all today?

    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west_full+6

  4. W7ENK says:

    RAIN WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    302 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/7840561

  5. Good afternoon, weather geeks

    A few things to go over….
    First the system on Monday. As we all expected the low is in a different location, track, and depth. Today’s 12z WRF has this low undergoing cyclogensis sooner, so what does that mean? The typical routine of a deeper low, but recurving sooner, so no real wind impacts if this plays out.
    Monday 8:00 AM

    Roughly 970mb heading towards the northern tip of Vancouver Island. Heck of a strong gradient packing behind the low, but this does not swing inland over neither Washington or Oregon remaining confined to Vancouver Island. Since there will be a lot of jet energy and a system undergoing cyclogenesis somewhere between 130-135 W it is worth keeping an eye on.

    Secondly 12z GFS operational and EURO are still very much at odds after day 7-8. Check out today’s 12z ECMWF operational.
    http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
    Nice block sets up shop around 160 W nosing up into Alaska, then return flow comes straight down from the arctic(perhaps cross polar flow) and through the Yukon. If this were mid-November or December things could turn real exciting. Interestingly the EURO has not backed off on this blocking pattern for the past few days where as the GFS doesn’t suggest this at all. Model riding is heating up.

  6. paulbeugene says:

    Looking at ensembles…mean 850mb temp 0C line does not get much south of Mt Ranier in the next couple weeks on the GFS and not in the next 10 days on the Euro model, but negative 850mb temp departures from normal still expected. It just means that it could snow at pass elevation at some point beyond day 7 but it is not the most likely scenario.

    As for precipitation totals, most Willamette Valley locations should get at least a couple inches of rain in the next two weeks. SO much for idea of bone dry October.

  7. rogue says:

    Any thoughts on weather at the beach on Friday? What time do you guys think that the rain will be arriving?

  8. Euro ensembles sure look colder wetter in the extended, with strong negative anomaly 500mb and 850 mb over PNW. Early ski season this year? I hope so!

  9. GFS and EURO still at odds in the long range after day 7-8….

    • Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

      06z GFS looks really wet in the extended. Nothing record setting, but plenty of precip. Didn’t look at the charts but 850mb temps look pretty warm so I’m thinking moist sw flow.

  10. bgb41 says:

    10/9/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:81 at BULLY CREEK RESE(2500 ft)
    Low: 55 at BUCKHORN SPRINGS(2780 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:46 at HOWARD Mt Howard(8150 ft)
    Low: 18 at CW1403 Paulina (3688 ft ) & DW9636 La Pine (4236 ft ) & CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & CW0732 Seneca (4665 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 56 degrees
    CW1403 Paulina (74/18 ) (3688 ft )

  11. Mark Nelsen says:

    00z GFS has a pretty deep low moving quickly west-east across central/northern Washington. If this occurs, we’d get a strong burst of south wind Monday afternoon/evening. Of course the next model run will have the low in a different location or much weaker. But it’s the first time this Fall we’ve seen anything “stormy”.

    • Mark, I thought you’d post about this. I just got online as of 12:40 AM and looked at the WRF. Yeah, nice looks like PDX-EUG around -8mb. I like that the low strengthens upon landfall doesn’t open up stays closed and does not stall either. Gusts to 50mph? I’d think it’s real possible.

    • As you said many model runs to go, so you know depth, track, and placement will change. This would be the first “storm” of the season to track, so if it pans out I’m looking forward to it.

    • W7ENK says:

      50 mph??? Jeez! With all the trees still firmly holding their leaves, winds that strong could be devastating — especially now after it’s been so dry for so long, a lot of trees are very brittle. Let’s actually NOT hope for winds that strong, not yet! 😦

    • alohabb says:

      Ahhh cmon, i still want the sunny warm days to stay around! I could get used to this for sure!! Guess i better start looking for employment on the islands!

  12. W7ENK says:

    Interesting article about the goings-on beneath our feet this week. Did you know this was happening currently? Neither did I… I just found out!

    Silent Earthquakes Ripple Under Cascadia

    http://www.opb.org/news/article/n3-silent-earthquakes-ripple-under-cascadia/

  13. AdamInAumsville says:

    2010, wasn’t it?

  14. W7ENK says:

    SEVERE RAIN WATCH
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
    912 PM PDT TUE OCT 9 2012

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/7837964

  15. bgb41 says:

    this is what my spreadsheet shows.. 56 days 80s…121 70s

  16. bgb41 says:

    I think today was day #56 above 80 at PDX

  17. G says:

    Any more 70″s this year?

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