Hazy, Smoky, & Hot Afternoon Ahead; Showers Monday Morning

It sure won’t hit 80 at the Coast today, but we’ll easily go into the lower 90s here in the western valleys of Oregon and SW Washington.

Once again, a weak surge of low clouds and fog has made it almost all the way up the coastline this morning, so no 80s there.  That’s always such a tough forecast when the hot northeast wind makes it almost to the beaches but not quite there. 

Inland, we’ve got 3-4 millibars easterly pressure gradient through the Columbia River Gorge.  That’s stronger easterly flow than yesterday, so most of the east side of the metro area will have breezy conditions by midday.  It’s gusting up around 40-45 mph right now at Vista House.  Very smoky out there as well from the fire in the eastern Gorge.

The lower atmosphere over us has warmed about 6 degrees too, which means 90-95 degree temps should be widespread around 4-5pm in the metro area.  These won’t be records because in September 1981 on this date we hit 99!  The disturbing part is that I clearly remember that hot day.  I was in 7th grade at Monitor Elementary and a friend’s mother was paying us to tie hop vines or something like that into wreaths.  We did that after school out in the hot sun, then I puked after drinking black cherry coke during a break.  Apparently it was too warm for working outside or I was a heat weenie?  Vivid memories…

Anyway, we’re all set up for a hot afternoon.

Models are showing actual light rain over and west of the Cascades north of Eugene between 1am-10am Monday.  Here’s our RPM rain forecast from the 12z run.   The NAM is similar.  The cooldown is going to be dramatic too.  We may only be in the 60s Sunday and/or Monday with lots of cloud cover.  A big marine push Saturday night means cloud cover Sunday morning.  Once the low clouds are in here Sunday morning, it might be tough to get rid of them; thus the possible 60s for highs.

It’s back to summery weather the rest of next week.  We might see 90 degree temps again next Thursday or Friday.

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

83 Responses to Hazy, Smoky, & Hot Afternoon Ahead; Showers Monday Morning

  1. Chris s says:

    Pretty bad forecast miss, to say the least. I find it almost comical how just about every time we get thunder or lightning in the area, it’s completely unforecasted. Big time ball drop by the mets today😁

  2. Rookie says:

    Thunder and rain in Rock Creek. Go Beavs!

  3. westvan says:

    Cloud to ground lightning in the Hazel Dell area of Vancouver. Very little rain. We can see the strikes from a long ways off.

  4. pappoose in scappoose says:

    LOOK!

  5. J in N Hazel Dell, WA says:

    Very loud thunder, long rolling peals of thunder, here just north of Vancouver. Reminds me of FL…..oops, there goes another one!!

  6. pappoose in scappoose says:

    I hear a Albino Donkey wandering about!

  7. Yeah safe to say no one saw this possibility unfolding. I didn’t bother to look at the SREF, WRF, or 12z SLE sounding either. Also when the onshore flow started to overtake the area this morning that even further would make one think we had no chance of storms.

    So looking at 12z SLE Sounding is very uneventful http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12090812_OBS/SLE.gif
    The only thing I see is a sharp moistening to the layer around 600mb and mediocre 0-6/8km shear. Otherwise EL levels are pathetic, Lapse Rates only marginal, LI and CAPE non-existent. However, Mesoanalysis shows some favorable aspects for continued weak elevated convection and Cloud tops already well exceeding equilibrium levels. PWAT values have well exceeded forecast now over 1″.

  8. poolsidemike says:

    surprise thunder and lightning and the Beavers are smacking Wisconsin around! What an unexpected fun afternoon!

  9. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Here be view to N. Note Albino Donkey.
    http://tinypic.com/r/1zdw7pg/6

  10. Brad says:

    Thunder here in Battle Ground now. AM radio has been crackling a few times.

  11. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    I was wondering what those booms were. Dogs not happy.

  12. chiefWright (Marquam) says:

    Alright this was in the NWS PDX discussion this afternoon:

    VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID
    LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING N AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON EARLY
    THIS AFTERNOON…BUT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED…AIR MASS STILL
    TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTION

    I’m seeing lovely tall white albino donkeys to my NNW, And radar is showing showers aplenty rising up from Newberg thru Tigard!!!

    OK you weather prognosticators, or chicken entrail readers, what gives????

  13. Garron near Washington Square says:

    Is this freakish long/skinny strip responsible? I don’t see anything on Mark’s metro lightning map.

    http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=west&type=vis&size=1

  14. gggcorno says:

    Several CG lightning strikes and good, robust thunder here in S/SW Beaverton.

  15. AlohaWeather says:

    What the???? That is LOOOOUD

  16. Garron near Washington Square says:

    5 really loud thunder rumbles in Beaverton! Who called this one?

  17. poolsidemike says:

    WTH?!!!!!! It’s pouring and thundering and lightning in Tigard! Am I dreaming???????? 5 great claps and going! Where did THIS come from?????

  18. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    87 ain’t happening today. Good!

  19. There seems to be a southerly marine push is in progress up the Willamette Valley as PDX-EUG shows about -2mb now. 7 AM Mesowest Observations shows southerly winds are now seen almost across the entire PDX metro area with the exception being east of I-205. PDX/TTD-DLS is up around -2.5mb and I have once again developed a NE-E wind. My temp hasn’t responded too much not skyrocketing upwards, and it seems the marine push is trying to overcome the offshore flow as well.

  20. It’s amazing driving just a few miles and the difference yesterday. I live in Beaverton just south of the High school. I drove up to the Sunset transit center to catch the max and I had to take my jacket off even though it was 5AM. The east wind had made it must warmer up there than 5 miles southwest.

  21. bgb41 says:

    There is a 26 degree variance in temperature at 2am in the Portland CWA. Its 51 degrees in Colton and 77 in Gresham. That is about as large as it can get folks.

  22. bgb41 says:

    9/7/2012 Oregon (All) Temperature Summary

    Warmest:
    High:101 at DW5789 Eagle Poi(1463 ft) & MERLIN SEED ORCH(1064 ft)
    Low: 67 at Portland-Troutda(36 ft) & DW6006 Troutdale(262 ft) & Troutdale (I-84(30 ft)

    Coldest:
    High:53 at Brookings Airpor(459 ft) & Brookings (US 10(150 ft)
    Low: 30 at CRANE PRAIRIE (5500 ft ) & Meacham (3724 ft )

    Largest Diurnal Change: 55 degrees
    ILLINOIS VALLEY (96/41 ) (1389 ft )
    FOSTER FLAT (88/33) (5000 ft)

  23. sandy says:

    I did feel the earthqake! I’m in the Aloha area. Felt a light rumble under the couch. I thought an earthquake, turned on fox12 and sure enough.

  24. BBQ says:

    We just had a earthquake 3.5

  25. I went from a very light east wind the past 2-3 hours now up to 10-20mph.

  26. MORE estival weather next week?!?

  27. Dave in SW PDX (235') says:

    Still 82.3° here at 9:15 PM.

  28. As I mentioned earlier models show much stronger offshore flow next week. 12km 3-7 day cross section now shows 40kts down to 975mb level.

    Talk about hot strong east winds. Let’s hope there are no fires in the Gorge.

  29. Joshua in Lake Oswego says:

    What a disgusting evening out there! Hot as crap still! Relief please!

  30. Tyler Mode in Battle Ground says:

    Where’s the marine push?

    Still 84 here in BG with a NE wind to 10 MPH.

    Kelso still at 84 as well with no wind really.

    However, Cathalamet etc is down to 62 already with a westerly wind.

    Very smoky smell/sky out tonight.

  31. Pete says:

    Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight.com fame, writes on the art and science of weather forecasting in this weekend’s New York Times Magazine. Excerpt:

    “Why are weather forecasters succeeding when other predictors fail? It’s because long ago they came to accept the imperfections in their knowledge. That helped them understand that even the most sophisticated computers, combing through seemingly limitless data, are painfully ill equipped to predict something as dynamic as weather all by themselves. So as fields like economics began relying more on Big Data, meteorologists recognized that data on its own isn’t enough.”

    The link:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/magazine/the-weatherman-is-not-a-moron.html?hp&pagewanted=all

  32. Mr Data says:

    About this weather pattern. I realized later today that this is the exact same setup we had back in April and parts of May when we alternated between hot and cold.

    Since we are imitating spring I wonder if we will imitate winter.

    I hope we are not stuck under lot of Omega Block this winter.

  33. W7ENK says:

    FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
    135 PM PDT FRI SEP 7 2012

    http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/weather/alertinfo/7596350

    A little late for that, don’t you think? o_O

  34. 93 here as of 1:30…..17% RH….

    • Mr Data says:

      High of only 90 here in Silverton and dropped to 89F now.

      Thank goodness it’s not like early August when I went to the airshow in 100F heat.

  35. Punxsutawney (aka HIOPHIL) at work by Sunset High elev ~280 says:

    I remember that day in 1981 as well. It was my first full day at college here in Portland. I remember playing volleyball on the grass outside the dorm during the warm evening / night. Not dating mysellf here am I? But the seventh was Labor Day Mark. Did you really go to school that day?

    Something important happened weather wise in November that year, but I can’t remember… 😉

  36. LongtimeLurker says:

    When will the wind direction change to blow the smoke out of here? My lungs are having a tough time with this!

    • W7ENK says:

      KATU had this to say:

      Smoke in Portland area

      Portland Fire and Rescue officials said they’ve been receiving calls from people concerned about the smoke.

      They offered these tips for people concerned about the smoke:

      ● If you smell smoke and/or are beginning to experience symptoms, consider temporarily locating to another area as long as it is safe for you to do so.

      ● Seek out locations where air is filtered. For example, heading to the local mall, movie theater or recreation center can provide some temporary relief. Local health officials often can help locate places with better air quality during extended smoke episodes.

      ● Close windows and doors and stay indoors. However, do not close up your home tightly if it makes it dangerously warm inside.

      ● Only if they are filtered, run the air conditioning, the fan feature on your home heating system (with the heat turned off) or your evaporative cooler. Keep the outdoor air intake closed and be sure the filter is clean. Filtered air typically has less smoke than the air outdoors. Running these appliances if they are not filtered can make indoor smoke worse.

      ● If you have any HEPA room air filtration units, use them.

      ● In smoky air, try to reduce your physical activity level. Avoid exercise or other strenuous activities in heavy smoke. If smoke is simply unpleasant or mildly irritating, changing the timing of a few activities may be all that is necessary.

      ● If you are having difficulty breathing, call 9-1-1.

      http://www.katu.com/news/local/Highway-141-fire-White-Salmon-smoke-in-Portland-area.html

  37. bgb41 says:

    Here are some temperatures and wind at Noon in Oregon

  38. bgb41 says:

    86.4 degrees and very gusty east winds now in East Battle Ground at 1215pm…Showers of burnt brown leaves falling off the trees.

  39. Well, I was wrong, sure places east of I-205 did stay very warm, well east into the Western Gorge or Foothills, but I thought with an offshore gradient of 3mb+ that Gresham, Troutdale could have been around 70 too.

    Currently it is 83.1 here well above of what I was at this time yesterday. 95 seems like a lock. Not looking forward to the rain as I’m supposed to head up to Olallie Monday 4 AM. If it’s in the 60’s here it could be in the 40’s up there and very wet. No thanks. 12z looks great after Tuesday, and I especially like the stronger offshore flow forecast Wednesday – Friday.

  40. bgb41 says:

    76 @ 11am at Astoria with winds East at 8mph..It could hit 80 there

  41. Timmy_Supercell (Hillsboro, OR) says:

    Hahahah heat weenie lol

    That rain on Monday good… nice little break. (Well, in terms of how dry its been)

  42. W7ENK says:

    I actually like the faint smell of smoke in late summer, as long as it isn’t overwhelming. This morning was just about right! 🙂

    I’m so thrilled this spectacular weather is holding through tomorrow! I’m throwing an End of Summer BBQ tomorrow, and I had to push it back two weeks because of life conflicts and the holiday, etc… I was so worried the rains would come back before (if not ON) Saturday. A big THANK YOU to the Summer Weather Gods for playing nice! 😀

    Oh, and Mark, I won’t tell you how old I was in September 1981. But if it’s any consolation, I was already reading by then! :mrgreen:

    • Garron near Washington Square says:

      I was in 5th grade in ’81, grad-ja-waited the 8th grade in ’91! 1st in my famerly 🙂

  43. Sifton says:

    Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen: Heat Weenie

    • pappoose in scappoose says:

      Hahaah!
      More like, Mark Nelsen: Black Cherry Coke Weenie!
      Fortunately, you can do battle with a cold one today!

  44. ryan says:

    Any idea what the temp in Eugene will be at Kickoff Saturday? Cooler than today I hope?

    • Mark Nelsen says:

      I think so because it’ll be a weak southwest push of marine air tonight, Eugene always gets that first. I bet it’ll only be around 80 or so for a high tomorrow down there.

    • W7ENK says:

      What time is Kickoff? Is this the Ducks or Beavers game, ’cause that will determine the level of sarcasm in my response… 😉

    • Ryan says:

      Good to hear, thanks Mark! And W7ENK, if you don’t know which team plays in Eugene then I’m sorry for you…

%d bloggers like this: